Water, Water Everywhere, but Not a Safe Drop to Drink

It’s an ugly part of the rising tide of poverty among a global population that continues to explode, particularly is less developed regions… regardless of the contraction of food and fertilizer in the global supply chain. Add in the consequences of unchecked global climate change, and the suffering reaches unheard of magnitudes. That back and forth between flooding and perilous heat and drought is challenging. As my home in California has succumbed to serious drenching from atmospheric rivers, people everywhere are dying from a lack of that life-giving resource.

Start in Eastern Africa: “A United Nations report estimates that 43,000 people died amid the longest drought on record in Somalia last year, half of whom were probably children… It is the first official death toll issued for the drought that is withering large parts of the Horn of Africa… At least 18,000 people are forecast to die in the first six months of this year… ‘The current crisis is far from over,’ says the report, which was released Monday by the World Health Organization and the U.N. children’s agency and was carried out by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine… Somalia and neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya are facing a sixth consecutive failed rainy season while rising global food prices complicate the hunger crisis.” Associated Press, March 23rd.

But when you look at the lack of water, particularly “safe drinking water,” the devastation is truly monumental worldwide. “A [U.N.] report issued on the eve of the first major U.N. conference on water in more than 45 years says 26% of the world’s population doesn’t have access to safe drinking water and 46% lacks access to basic sanitation.

“The U.N. World Water Development Report 2023, released Tuesday [3/22], painted a stark picture of the huge gap that needs to be filled to meet United Nations goals to ensure all people have access to clean water and sanitation by 2030… Richard Connor, editor in chief of the report, told a news conference that the estimated cost of meeting the goals is between $600 billion and $1 trillion a year… According to the report, water use has been increasing globally by roughly 1% per year over the last 40 years ‘and is expected to grow at a similar rate through to 2050, driven by a combination of population growth, socio-economic development and changing consumption patterns’…

“Connor said the growing demand is happening in developing countries and emerging economies where it is fueled by industrial growth and rapid population increase in cities… With agriculture using 70% of all water globally, Connor said, irrigation for crops has to be more efficient — as it is in some countries that now use drip irrigation, which saves water. ‘That allows water to be available to cities,’ he said.

“As a result of climate change, the report said, ‘seasonal water scarcity will increase in regions where it is currently abundant — such as Central Africa, East Asia and parts of South America — and worsen in regions where water is already in short supply, such as the Middle East and the Sahara in Africa.’.. On average, ‘10% of the global population lives in countries with high or critical water stress’ — and up to 3.5 billion people live under conditions of water stress at least one month a year, according to the report issued by UNESCO… Since 2000, floods in the tropics have quadrupled while floods in the north mid-latitudes have increased 2.5-fold, the report said…

“As for water pollution, Connor said, the biggest source of the pollution is untreated wastewater… ‘Globally, 80% of wastewater is released to the environment without any treatment,’ he said, ‘and in many developing countries it’s pretty much 99%.’ ’ Think access to safe drinking water is a problem only for underdeveloped countries? Think again.

“More than 46 million people in the U.S. live with water insecurity—either no running water or water that may be unsafe to drink. Experts say at least $18.4 billion is needed over the next 10 years to bring water security to more people, although the Environmental Protection Agency and American Water Works Association estimates it would cost close to fully $1 trillion to replace and repair the U.S.’ aging infrastructure.

“People are likely familiar with the water crises in Jackson and Flint, Michigan. In the former, flooding last summer overwhelmed the main water plant, and nearly 200,000 residents woke up to a boil water advisory; reports showed that high levels of lead in the city’s drinking water were ignored for years. In the latter, toxic levels of lead in the water system—the result of aging, corroded pipes—sickened 100,000 residents and killed more than a dozen. But issues like this are happening all over the country in places like Tallulah, Louisiana; Grapeland, Texas; and parts of New Hampshire, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico, where residents also don’t have safe running water—their stories simply haven’t made national headlines…

“According to water accessibility nonprofit DigDeep, there are 2.2 million people in the U.S. without running water inside their homes—no sinks, bathtubs, or toilets… An additional 44 million Americans may have indoor plumbing, but their water systems have been in violation of the Safe Water Drinking Act. Another 43 million Americans who rely on well water are threatened by record droughts caused by climate change. One of the country’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead, fed by the Colorado River, is so low that soon it may not have enough water for the 40 million people in the Southwest who rely on it [even after recent rains]. In fact, in early January, the city of Scottsdale, Arizona, which gets water from the Colorado River, announced it was cutting off an entire region from the municipal water supply; now dry, the Rio Verde Foothills had received its water from this city system for decades.

“DigDeep calls ‘the water gap’ a ‘crisis’ with an economic impact in the billions each year. Time lost at work or school hauling water: $846 million; physical health impacts: $762 million; water purchase costs: $291 million; mental health impacts: $218 million; and the GDP impact from lost productivity: $924 million. Per household, water insecurity costs $15,800 a year, a price tag that’s often more than the annual income.” Cari Shane writing for the March 17th FastCompany.com. Take a good look at the above picture. It’s an active outhouse, draining you know where, in rural Louisiana. Today.

I’m Peter Dekom, and when politicians tell us that we do not have the money to fix what we need even for basic access to potable water, even in the United States, I wonder if they might be willing to trade their bathrooms for the American version shown above.

The Country with the Most Weather-Related Catastrophes on Earth – The United States

 

“[B]uckle up. More extreme events are expected.” 

 Rick Spinrad, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“We drew the short straw (in the South) that we literally can experience every single type of extreme weather event.. Including blizzards. Including wildfires, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes. Every single type. ... There's no other place in the United States that can say that.” 

 University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd, a former president of the American Meteorological Society

There’s so much devastation all over the world. Volcanic action, earthquakes and violent weather patterns. All of these disruptors have been with us since well before recorded history. Throw in an ice age, a few large asteroids colliding with the planet, and lots and lots of human conflicts. It really wasn’t until the Industrial Revolution, combined with Biblical quotes that implied mankind had a God-given right to exploit nature’s resources without limits, that we began changing our planet’s basic ecosystem.

At first, the horrible was releasing toxins into our waterways, air and even in great deposits on our lands. We over hunted, over fished, and over extracted natural resources. Species disappeared. Land masses shifted. We moved sex from procreation to a major source of pleasure. Medical science saved lives… and the earth became severely overpopulated. Then, greenhouse gasses moved to the lead horrible from toxic emissions to climate-changing devastation.

Sure, the United States is rich enough to buy its way out of a food shortage resulting from drought-to-desertification depletion of once major agricultural land. Somalia and much of Africa, not so much. Bangladesh faced flooding that has claimed 85% of her entire landmass all at once. Australia and South Africa have major urban areas that almost ran 100% out of water. Mexico City, sitting on an old lake bed, has made regional earthquakes so much worse as underground water subsided… leaving only enough to exacerbate liquefaction to maximize the damage.

But the United States has so much intense weather-related devastation. We have so many mega-hurricanes, mega-wildfires, mega-flooding, mega-drought, mega-coastal storm surges. Perhaps, it’s just because we have an amazing and ubiquitous cadre of professional and amateur journalists recording it all on video. But isn’t that technology everywhere? Do other nations have atmospheric rivers, phenomena we have never experienced before, or hurricanes laden with water that hover so much longer dropping their devasting rain with increasing frequency and intensity? Or those damned super-tornados? Sure. But we have more. Much, much more.

We used to think tornados were standalone storms, just part of a pattern living on certain massive and continuous plains. But the conditions that lead up to these most recent tornados have changed. As Ginger Adams Otis, writing for the April 2nd Wall Street Journal notes: “A powerful storm system barreled across the central U.S. Friday [3/31], killing at least 26 people and unleashing reports of at least 69 tornadoes across at least eight states.

“Fueled by a series of so-called supercells, the rotating thunderstorms that can spawn tornadoes, the system battered homes, downed trees and power lines and flipped cars and RV campers, with some landing in the Mississippi River… The exact size, speed and number of tornadoes that hit the central U.S. won’t be clear until field reports are gathered from across the region. The National Weather Service said it expected to have multiple tornado confirmations as surveys are completed.” Turns out we don’t just see more weather devastation because of ubiquitous camaras; we are actually experiencing events of weather-related devastation than anywhere else because… well, it really does start with climate change. And exactly where we are on the planet…

“The United States is Earth's punching bag for nasty weather…. Blame geography for the U.S. getting hit by stronger, costlier, more varied and frequent extreme weather than anywhere on the planet, several experts said. Two oceans, the Gulf of Mexico, the Rocky Mountains, jutting peninsulas like Florida, clashing storm fronts and the jet stream combine to naturally brew the nastiest of weather.

“That’s only part of it. Nature dealt the United States a bad hand, but people have made it much worse by what, where and how we build, several experts told The Associated Press…Tornadoes. Hurricanes. Flash floods. Droughts. Wildfires. Blizzards. Ice storms. Nor’easters. Lake-effect snow. Heat waves. Severe thunderstorms. Hail. Lightning. Atmospheric rivers. Derechos. Dust storms. Monsoons. Bomb cyclones. And the dreaded polar vortex.

“It starts with ‘where we are on the globe,’ North Carolina state climatologist Kathie Dello said. ‘It’s truly a little bit ... unlucky.’… China may have more people, and a large land area like the United States, but ‘they don't have the same kind of clash of air masses as much as you do in the U.S. that is producing a lot of the severe weather,’ said Susan Cutter, director of the Hazards Vulnerability and Resilience Institute at the University of South Carolina.

“The U.S. is by far the king of tornadoes and other severe storms… ‘It really starts with kind of two things. Number one is the Gulf of Mexico. And number two is elevated terrain to the west,’ said Victor Gensini, a Northern Illinois University meteorology professor.” Seth Borenstein, writing for the April 2nd Associated Press. But these weather “events” are most frequent in the United States and seem to devastate the most those sections of our nation that rail against the reality of climate change, fight hardest against measures to contain greenhouse gas emissions, and encourage non-fossil fuel alternatives. Areas where conspiracy theories trump science.

I’m Peter Dekom, and since she actually started with noting, Mother Nature is oblivious to climate change deniers attempting to overrule the laws of physics.

As Birthrates Decline, So Does College Attendance

As Birthrates Decline, So Does College Attendance

Japan’s Experience, Our Future?

We know artificial intelligence will change the face of society dramatically. The Copyright Office has already chimed in that computer-only creations cannot get a copyright. Congress, in gridlock and dealing with issues from the last decade, is completely unprepared for the obvious and expected changes. In Hollywood, as labor agreements are being renegotiated, AI is deeply within union demands. But there is another major issue lurking in the background in mostly developed countries. It lies at the heart of how we fund social programs for the elderly – even if they have paid for such programs over time: the original legislation, passed in the 1930s, was predicated on the rising aggregation of younger workers paying for the shrinking number of older workers through payroll taxes.

There’s just one huge catch to this reality. In virtually every developed nation – including both China and the United States – birthrates are declining below the replacement rate (2.1 live births per couple)… which tells you simply that the original funding assumptions for Social Security and Medicare are no longer operative. The burden of social programs can no longer simply be placed on working Americans. We’re at 1.6 live births per couple here… and falling. With our current anti-immigration trends, we simply are not adding enough new workers to support those programs as anticipated. You’d think in a nation where 1% of the population owns and controls half the wealth in the nation, the solution is beyond obvious. But the fallacy of “a rising tide floats all boats” – which has never actually happened – the GOP still believes these programs are “entitlements” which need to pay for themselves. Entitlement with decades of deductions!

But there is fallout beyond these issues, which we can see reflected in modern day Japan, with 1.3 liver births per couple. Further, China is no longer the most populous nation on earth (India is), joining Taiwan and South Korea with even lower rates than Japan. Japan is expected to lose a quarter of its population over the next 40 years according to the IMF. While these trends may benefit some over time – like making more housing available with fewer buyers – there are other more serious negative displacements that developed nations must absorb. Like a serious decline in the need for schools and colleges, reductions well beyond the unrecovered losses of students after the COVID lockdowns. Japan offers some insight to one particular impact: reduction in the need for institutions of higher learning, as this summary of a Hechinger Report, by Jon Marcus for the April 19th Los Angeles Times illustrates:

“The number of 18-year-olds here has dropped by nearly half in just three decades, from more than 2 million in 1990 to 1.1 million now. It’s projected to further decline to 880,000 by 2040, according to the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology… That’s taken a dramatic toll on colleges and universities, with severe consequences for society and economic growth — a situation now also being faced by the United States, where the number of 18-year-olds has begun to drop in some states and soon will fall nationwide…

“The most significant of those implications, based on the Japanese experience: a weakening of economic competitiveness at a time when international rivals such as China are increasing the proportions of their populations with degrees… ‘Policymakers and industry leaders are really facing a sense of crisis,’ said Akiyoshi Yonezawa, professor and vice director of the International Strategy Office at Tohoku University, who has studied the economic ramifications of the decrease in Japan’s university-age population.

“The onset in the 1990s of shoushikoureika, or the aging of Japan’s population, coincided with the start of a recession here that the Japanese call ‘the lost 30 years.’… To help drive growth, some businesses have been moving operations abroad and recruiting university-educated foreign workers, another study by Yonezawa found.

“That’s not only because of the population decline; it’s also a result of Japanese universities significantly lowering their standards to fill seats. Whereas the average proportion of applicants accepted in 1991 was 6 in 10, Japanese universities today admit more than 9 out of 10, the Education Ministry says… ‘It’s easier to enter, easier to graduate,’ Yonezawa said. ‘There are doubts that students really get the necessary skills and knowledge.’…

“At least 11 universities in Japan shut down from 2000 to 2020, and there were 29 mergers, compared with only three in the 50 years before that, Inaba found. Most vulnerable have been small private universities in rural areas with low rankings based on selectivity and graduates’ job success…

“[The lesson for us:] Although the numbers in the United States aren’t as dire, they are also declining… The U.S. birthrate — the number of live births per 1,000 women — has been falling steadily, the National Center for Health Statistics reports. The total number of births declined in nine of the 10 years of the 2010s and dropped even more sharply in 2020, before inching up by 1% in 2021, according to provisional estimates.

“This is projected to worsen an already unprecedented slide in college and university enrollment, which fell by more than 11%, or 2.4 million students, from 2010 through this year. There will be a 10% drop in the number of high school graduates from 2026 to 2037, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. Other forecasts put the coming decrease in the number of 18-year-olds at more than 15%.”

We have suffered from a tsunami of “it can’t happen here” realities of late. Climate change. An explosion of mass shootings. Polarization so severe that talk of a possible civil war is front and center. The thought of a killer pandemic. And now, the impact of a contracting population as we ramp up our efforts to stop immigration.

I’m Peter Dekom, and in a world of declining birthrates and severe shifts in our tax base, Americans can either adjust to reality or find innocent people to blame and lame conspiracy theories to soothe.