The Art of the Deal, Trump vs the World = Terminal Uncertainty

 Economist in 2024: US Economy is  the “Envy of the World”

After Trump Tariffs Announced

US already is a manufacturing giant

The Art of the Deal, Trump vs the World = Terminal Uncertainty

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

“I think it's going very well…The markets are going to boom, the stock market is going to boom, the country is going to boom.” 

Donald Trump, as global stock markets were crashing, April 3rd

"We're going to have a booming stock market for a long time because we're reinvesting in the United States." 

VP JD Vance mirroring his boss, as stocks fell further.

Aside from my education, experience and logic, I often like to see what the rest of the world thinks of the goings-on in America, especially since the United States seems to have gravitated to a government based on conspiracy theories, a war on “woke” and witch hunts… where empirical facts generated by the best minds in the nation are relegated to the garbage dump of “fake news.” One of my favorite go-to periodicals is UK-based The Economist. As post-COVID Europe stagnated, as even China and the tigers in Asia sputtered, The Economist used the first image above, a dollar-powered rocket, as the metaphor for America. The next two recent covers tell a very different story: Trump’s “Liberation Day” became a more universally described “Ruination Day,” and with only one other economic powerhouse alternative left, The Economist was predicting a new rise for China… reversing a sputtering economy in the post-COVID recovery.

The basis for the determination of US tariffs was an inscrutable formula (where the variables were not identified) based on actual tariffs embellished by any trade imbalance, with a floor of 10%. Sigh! We’ve already seen the boom that flowed from the infrastructure investment legislation enacted during the Biden era, which Trump wants to shut down… even though it was working well. Instead, Trump wants manufacturers to build and retrofit factories all over the United States, which as the final chart above illustrates, is already the second largest manufacturing nation on earth.

So, put yourself in the shoes of a would-be manufacturer building or rebuilding in the United States. First, if you depend on raw materials that necessarily come from overseas, you’re already screwed once. Second, even though US manufacturing wages are not particularly high, their level above less affluent manufacturing nations is high enough to force as much automation as can be built. Fewer jobs than we might want. Third, with share prices down, and there will be some up and down movement, access to the private construction capital needed carries with it the risk of “terminal uncertainty,” which increases that cost of that capital. “Terminal uncertainty” is a whimsical Trump trait, and his rubber-stamp congress is no help in creating consistency. Fourth, it takes years to build or rebuild these manufacturing centers and recruit and train the workforce… so this construction only works in a time of clarity and stability. If you build those plants, and the tariffs come down, all the business models you used to make that build decision crash and burn. So, why take the risk in the first place? All this even without looking at the failed history of tariffs in the modern world.

No, Donald, good employment numbers for March are only a backward statistic. If you want to see what the companies (read: employers) expect, look at the forward-looking stock market. Do we want to place our economic future in the hands of a mercurial bully? So, I am going to push the “easy button” and rely on that quintessential Republican President, Ronald Reagan, who unlike the Trump/Musk cabal, actually understood the impact of tariffs and their treacherous history here in the United States. Excerpt from his April 25, 1987, radio address:

Now, that message of free trade is one I conveyed to Canada's leaders a few weeks ago, and it was warmly received there. Indeed, throughout the world there's a growing realization that the way to prosperity for all nations is rejecting protectionist legislation and promoting fair and free competition. Now, there are sound historical reasons for this. For those of us who lived through the Great Depression, the memory of the suffering it caused is deep and searing. And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery.

You see, at first, when someone says, "Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports," it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works-but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.

The memory of all this occurring back in the thirties made me determined when I came to Washington to spare the American people the protectionist legislation that destroys prosperity. Now, it hasn't always been easy. There are those in this Congress, just as there were back in the thirties, who want to go for the quick political advantage, who will risk America's prosperity for the sake of a short-term appeal to some special interest group, who forget that more than 5 million American jobs are directly tied to the foreign export business and additional millions are tied to imports. Well, I've never forgotten those jobs. And on trade issues, by and large, we've done well. In certain select cases, like the Japanese semiconductors, we've taken steps to stop unfair practices against American products, but we've still maintained our basic, long-term commitment to free trade and economic growth.

Ronald Reagan was acutely aware that American post-WWII explosive economic growth was driven by an era of expanding global free trade. I think that Donald Trump has proven beyond a shadow of the doubt that he is a RINO (“Republican in name only”), and his true party affiliation is the conspiracy theory MAGA perspective on the world, were vaccines that have saved millions and millions of lives over decades or longer are treated with deep suspicion, where the Secretary of HHS dispenses medical advice (but is not a doctor), where veterans are labeled “losers,” in an administration where our most detailed war plans appear on private, unsecured, smart phones and platforms, and where Social Security is labeled a “Ponzi scheme.” All the DOGE cutting of government services is NOT to root out corruption and waste; it is to replace the entire federal bureaucracy with diehard Trump loyalists and to give the richest in the land 95%+ a massive tax cut they do not need and which only benefits them. Stagflation, anyone? Recession?

I’m Peter Dekom, and our “allies” are indeed increasing their bonds… but with each other, China… and most definitely not us, their new enemy.

Do We Live in a Stockyard or Limited by Our Own Human Bond Age?

 Do We Live in a Stockyard or Limited by Our Own Human Bond Age?

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

If you are wondering why Trump elected to impose a 90-day pause in non-China-directed tariffs, it wasn’t the volatile stock markets. Stocks represent equity; bonds are debt instruments. The share driven markets are on a hair trigger reflecting the pessimism or optimism of the moment. But the overriding issues are deep. Except for the decades of China’s industrial espionage and requirements to share underlying rights, a most legitimate matter, most of the tariffs for the rest of the world really did not need adjusting. Trump’s massive “everybody pays what we demand” will not bring significant revenues to the government, will not bring high-wage manufacturing back, and most definitely not bring prices down. What that effort has produced is a global move to insulate the others, particularly the EU, India, much of Asia and even Mexico and Canada, from American hegemony as to trading platforms and currency exchanges… and moved China to a path to becoming the new go-to trading partner. Nothing Trump can do now will stop that.

“European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed President Donald Trump's temporary halt on reciprocal tariffs, describing it as a chance to pursue a ‘frictionless’ trading relationship… She later confirmed that the EU would also pause for 90 days its planned countermeasures against Trump's tariffs to ‘give negotiations a chance.’.. However, her broader message signaled that the EU's strategic pivot away from U.S.-centric trade would continue.” Newsweek, April 10th. That last sentence has become the most common global response to a US president perceived as a rogue bully that must be stopped.

But Trump’s obvious capitulation (the 90-day pause) came after a heart-to-heart talk with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who while touting Trump’s strategy (??) to the public, had to inform the President that the bond market, much larger than the aggregation of shares traded on the stock market, was sending some very severe messages to the Trump administration. In normal times, when stocks sink, investors’ money usually gravitates to the less volatile bond market. This time, both indexes have plunged. Why does this matter? Because our national debt (the deficit borrowing) depends on our ability to sell government bonds in the open market (at a scheduled “auction”), with most of the “usual buyers” being engaged in a trade war with the Trump administration, the market was hostile. And if bonds cannot be sold without increasing the interest rate, we lose. That interest carry is an immutable part of the federal budget… which pushes our budget priorities into a vastly more limited place.

In the April 10th Wall Street Journal, Sam Goldfarb explains: “It definitely hasn’t been a good week for the bond market… U.S. Treasurys initially rallied after Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, reflecting a flight to traditional havens as investors sold riskier assets like stocks. Starting on Monday [4/7], however, they started selling off, and that selling became especially intense Tuesday [4/8] after a $58 billion government auction of 3-year notes was met with weak demand from investors.

“That presented a big problem. As bond prices fell, yields climbed, further threatening an already vulnerable economy, given that yields set a floor on interest rates on everything from mortgages to corporate bonds.

“Investors were basically panicking in ways reminiscent of the most extreme crises, like the 2020 Covid meltdown. One concern was that foreign investors might sell—or at least stop buying—Treasurys in reaction to Trump’s tariffs. Once prices started tumbling, the move was further accelerated by forced selling from hedge funds–a scenario long feared by regulators.

“By Wednesday [4/9] afternoon—after a successful 10-year note auction, and Trump’s pivot on tariffs—the market was acting more normally. Even so, the exposure of its vulnerabilities will likely keep investors nervous for some time.”

Putting this another way, buying federal bonds needed a higher rate to overcome the global animus against the United States and its President, and as those who already owned US government bonds began dumping much of their holdings into the overall marketplace, the value of those bonds was further diluted. US financial instruments are now viewed as damaged goods with vastly higher risk. Trump has set in motion a global movement that he can longer stop… even if all the tariffs were returned to what they were in January. Without any real allies on this issue, the world is preparing to shove American power and influence into second place… behind China.

The net impact of higher government bond interest is that almost everything in the US will see higher pricing, and operating credit will contract quickly. Most impacted: small businesses will either have to pay with credit card interest rates for that capital… or will be closed out of the credit markets entirely. These vectors are moving fast and are highly resistant to any efforts by the Trump administration to moderate them. That massive billionaire tax cut that Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson seem hell-bent on passing will increase the deficit by trillions of dollars… push interest on debt even higher… and will have invited a devastation of the GOP at the midterms (if there are any), as the benefits to their constituents are sliced away to accommodate the billionaires.

I’m Peter Dekom, and Trump’s significant damage to the US economy has some areas that might be reversed… but most changes are permanently going in the wrong direction; perhaps conspiracy theorists believing Trump party line may find solace to ask the Easter Bunny to intervene.

Can the US Rise in a Period of Severe Economic & Political Instability?

 

Can the US Rise in a Period of Severe Economic & Political Instability?

Will the World Even Accept Stability under Donald Trump?

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

“I'm telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass,” 

Trump bragged at the National Republican Congressional Committee Dinner on April 8th

Unless you have an instantaneous super-high-speed fiber connection to the main trading markets, as the major stockbrokerage houses do, you are playing a fool’s game trying to buy low and sell high. And yes, stock markets will rise and fall, sometimes even dramatically as any relevant news or suggestion of any subsidence in the trade wars. Looking for a bottom, where you can buy in? Good luck with that one. We have not yet experienced the sustained decline that typically confirms we are in a recession, but virtually all the top CEOs, economic advisors to such CEOs, at American trading, banking and trading institutions, believe that a recession is an increasing probability.

What is a recession? According to Investopedia, “A recession is a significant and widespread downturn in economic activity that typically lasts for longer than a few months. A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth indicate a recession. However, more complex formulas are also used to determine recessions.” But what drives a recession is seldom the actions of one person, which we have with Donald Trump who has support from most of the GOP members of Congress. To sidestep the power of Congress to set or approve tariff rates, Trump simply declared a state of “emergency” which would give him power unilaterally to set rates (albeit Congress could override those rates). What emergency? Nothing of substance comes to mind.

OK, so what? Give Trump time to let the markets reset and accept his view of the world. Aside from understanding “whatever I say, even as a contradict myself” is his view of the world; nobody has a firm grasp of what his tariff/trade goals actually are. Bring new revenue into the federal government so that we can reduce the deficit and fund tax cuts? But as already reflected in the labor market, there will be more unemployment (after good numbers in March) from both the cuts in the number of federal employees and the necessary layoffs in large sectors like automotive. Unemployed workers don’t pay a lot of income tax. The thousands of layoffs at the IRS not only reduces the staff that helps smaller dollar amount taxpayers but also trims those well-trained audit teams able to ferret through the tax avoidance schemes of the mega rich. This defunding of the IRS is estimated to reduce tax revenues actually paid by a rough 10%.

Reshoring manufacturing jobs to the United States? That requires appropriate manufacturing facilities; that takes both time and money. And while there are thousands of abandoned or derelict factories scattered around the country, with a very high concentration in the Rust Belt, virtually none of these facilities is useable without millions and millions of dollars to refurbish them. Like the abandoned Fisher Body Plant 21 in Detroit, pictured above. Exactly where will the capital to rebuild those plants come from? It will take years to rebuild/build those factories. And if we are a global trade pariah, if a recession that the US caused crushes financial institutions who might have otherwise provided such capital, does anything get built? If the relevant corporations do not see obvious consumer growth and acceptance of the accompanying higher prices? If instead of hiring low-wage workers, what if the new facilities are fully automated, requiring only skeleton maintenance and repair crews?

There is begrudging acceptance, even from economists once loyal to Trump, that the impact of new tariffs against products Americans have come to rely on is the functional equivalent of a national sales tax. If prices soar for those imports, US companies will have no reason to be competitive, since the government is effectively price fixing. With the new 104% on Chinese imports to the US, China increased it tariff for US imports to 84%. See Trump balk, below! Not to mention his 15-20% increase, to $1 trillion, ask for the military budget! Let the people suffer from the higher prices you were supposed to reduce, but please cut taxes for billionaires! Let the deficit rise massively if necessary?

China is the world’s largest factory nation (BTW: we’re second!). Consumer prices for computers, smart phones, appliances, furniture, hand tools, toys and small-item goods (that could never be made here at a price), mostly from China, would soar. For those of us in the entertainment sector, we are expecting either total exclusion from China or unsustainable tariffs. China is already telling US companies to pack up and leave.

Trump’s vacillating policies, inconsistencies and willingness to ignore treaties suggests that there will be decades before the world remotely trusts us again! So, what does Donald “I will not pause these tariffs” Trump say: How about a 90-day pause our proposed new reciprocal tariffs? The mega-bully has met a mega-mega-bully. And reinforced his pattern of inconsistency and instability!!! Brain first, mouth second!!! As a parent, one of my most basic lessons for my son: actions, even just words, have consequences! Trump is still learning. He probably gets that even if he could run again… unless he rigs elections Putin-style, his likelihood of winning is zilch!

Trump’s other brilliant revenue generating idea is to sell federal buildings that a downsized workforce will no longer need. But the commercial real estate market is already in shambles with depressed prices in some of the most desirable areas. Flooding the market with thousands of buildings will further depress the market. Gee, who buys such buildings anyway? Billionaire developers… who can hold and redevelop those holdings until the market doubles or triples those values. Billionaire oligarchs to Trump: thank you for the tax cuts, deregulation and lots of cheap real estate. The tea leaves for current growth and investing are abominable. Cash is king again.

In most times, when the stock market falls to any sustainable, measurable degree, the much larger bond market steps in as the go-to investment. But when the overall economics are horrific, like during the subprime market collapse in 2008, both stocks and bonds fall. Guess what? We’re baaaack! Both markets are terrible.

But the biggest fly in the ointment is instability and loss of faith in the institutions that usually function well. Trump seems to enjoy fomenting instability. He reverses course and defines utter failure as “perfect” or “beautiful.” Those supplicants willing to kiss Trump’s ample buttocks are generally smaller nations facing ruination. There is so much turmoil, political and economic, happening at the same time that the MAGA cult seems to being willing to trust Grand Mufti “only I can fix it” Trump to make sense of it all. They love his attack on climate change programs, even as they trapse through their destroyed, burned or flooded homes and businesses.

Meanwhile, using an increasingly ambiguous “DEI” term, Trump is decimating the truest and most consistent job creators by shutting down research grants to those universities with the best track records for creating new technology and medical breakthroughs. Our life expectancy, even for the rich, continues to fall. Eradicated diseases are returning; more people are suffering from preventable diseases, and children are forced into classrooms where there may well be children never inoculated as most of us when we entered elementary school. Conspiracy theories have replaced empirical facts as our guiding principles, a reality that faces continuity as the Department of Education is disabled, forcing many less affluent school districts to hire unqualified teachers aimed at sardine-packed classrooms. Ignorance + conspiracy theories = the mess we are in. Stupid or ignorant America serves Trump well!

I’m Peter Dekom, and while tariffs can sometimes be justified (e.g., to protect our fishing industry from farm-raised alternatives), let me answer the question posed in my title: NOT A SHOT IN HELL!!!

Is There a Shot the Trump’s Tariffs Will Elicit the Deals He Seeks?

  

Is There a Shot the Trump’s Tariffs Will Elicit the Deals He Seeks?

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

As I have learned by over half a century negotiating high dollar and high-profile transactions in the shark-invested waters of the entertainment industry, if you start hard, you damned well better have the negotiating power to shove the deal down your opposite number’s throat. It is a whole lot easier to escalate from reasonableness than to try and sink your teeth into the negotiator on the other side at the beginning. For those who are not used to bullies, they may not take your fang-leading effort at face value… or they may believe you are all show but lack the staying power inherent in your initial hostile approach. I’ve enjoyed enough bullies to be able to smile.

It get’s worse if you have multiple simultaneous negotiations based on the same subject matter. If you have the bargaining power across the board, you can even tilt the numbers upon which the negotiations are based in your favor. Trade deficit values in tariff negotiations is like a dentist grinning and holding pliers and a power drill before a minor procedure, especially when the “patient” doesn’t want dental work and is equally as powerful as you may be.

Comparing apples to apples works only so far. But if one country makes tons of money from services-based businesses, digital platforms and financial/banking structures, if you just look at one sector of trade (like goods sold which may define the other party), you can create a case for trade deficit-based tariffs… but it obviously is a flawed basis. The more additional variables you can add, the more you can justify bully demands. But Canada as a major source of fentanyl? Huh?

And woe to those you are trying to intimidate who are powerful and willing to push back really harder! China has told Mr. Trump to “bring it on,” and the EU is contemplating applying the Anti-Coercion laws which contain the ability to deny EU access to the offending nation and its companies. How happy would Google and Facebook feel if they were banned from continental Europe… or if US banks and other financial institutions were banned from accessing the EU markets at all? Or what if China froze all the electronic components America carmakers and manufacturers of sophisticated electronic systems? Or began dumping lots of its US dollar reserves to undercut the value of dollar way below what Trump hoped for.

So let me answer the title question very simply. While a finesse player who really understood trade deficits, one not attempting to take on the whole world, began this effort with sensible goals, perhaps. But braggadocio Trump tends to burn his bridges before he tries to cross on them… so simply, while Trump may score a couple of victories, NO… We are now a global pariah facing a vast wall of anger and retribution. I suspect you will be able to book rooms for 2028 Olympics really inexpensively.

I’m Peter Dekom, and how would you like it if most of the rest of the world were furious and waiting to get you, your companies and your citizens; well, they ARE?

The Tipping Points, When Attitudes Begin to Change… Fast

  

Civil rights marches

1968 Democratic Convention

2025 Anti-DOGE/Trump Protests

The Tipping Points, When Attitudes Begin to Change… Fast

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

I had to laugh when JD Vance stated that “we have to fight in this country” against the “totalitarian left.” Aside from the fact the his party controls both houses of Congress, the presidency and enjoys a conservative Supreme Court, aside from the unending, mostly unconstitutional flow of executive orders from Donald Trump and ignoring the indiscriminate firings of huge segments of federal agencies created and funded by Congress by an unelected and wildly unpopular rich dude, Vice President Vance was railing against the battle with a totalitarian left… here?! Seriously?! You who have all the power are threatened by the hapless party that controls no major federal agency or branch of government? In other words, you want all the power? Hmm, isn’t that the precise definition of totalitarianism?

In his Rose Garden speech on April 2nd, Trump rolled out the global unfairness of the world against the United States and his assertion – with a little help from an angry US autoworker from just north of Detroit – that we will begin by charging reciprocal tariffs and trade barriers as charged by other nation, skipping over the very real lower effective tariffs we face on our exports that really matter. Not only flat blanket tariffs do not work – why would we reciprocate against cocoa and banana exporters, when we don’t grow those here? – but I really would like to get my hands on Trump’s grades in economics at Wharton! We made out like bandits with We made out like bandits with cheap goods as our service sector and American knowhow pushed our earning power through the stratosphere.

In that April 2nd speech, Trump touted the Smoot-Hawley tariff introduced by Herbert Hoover in 1930 as a success? Not only did that tariff explode with reciprocal tariffs, but the American economy tanked even beyond the Great Depression that tariff was supposed to fix. There were more bank failures, more farm foreclosures, and those policies helped FDR shove Hoover right out the door. It took the New Deal and the manufacturing demand of WWII to undo the damage. I would guess Trump didn’t get good grades in history either. Isolationism had kept America down for decades, and the tariffs of the early part of the 20th century stifled growth everywhere. As European economies were failing in that era, as Germany was lumbering under the French-architected WWI reparations, economic turmoil gave way to autocracies (Mussolini and Hitler on the right, Stalin on the left) and ultimately war.

The Germans and Japanese claimed, for national security reasons, that they needed access to more resources (mostly oil and rubber) and “lebensraum” (room to grow and live); only autocracy seemed to be able to deliver those wishes… by force. Japan went for Korea and China (later Indonesia for oil and rubber), Italy went for neighboring countries and chunks of North Africa, Russia coveted the East European bloc and Germany lunged at the rest of Europe… later even Russia. See any parallels to the United States’ declaring it will retake Panama and annex Greenland “one way or the other” for essential national security reasons?

After WWII, with an over-abundance of electrical power (thank you New Deal projects) and virtually no war damage from which to rebuild, the United States exploded in a new world of free trade. That’s when our economy exploded. We were competitive, innovative, our universities were hurling new technologies out into the American job market, we prospered more than ever. But then we were competitive… not like the tariff-sucking weakling we appear to be today… a nation better at finding blame as opposed to simply getting the job done.

Here's a little reminder of history, recent enough to have occurred during Trump’s lifetime. Even in the 1950s: the “Negro” and “White’s Only” signs, the mandate that Blacks sit only in the back of the bus or trolly. The hanged young male black bodies accused of inappropriate conduct over white women. The Jim Crow laws that denied people of color the rights to vote. The bloody protests against integration were fierce. “Separate but Equal” wasn’t enough. There was a tipping point. It took federal troops and an act of Congress to end segregation … and years for people to get used to it. Hell, the South was willing to sacrifice the lives of its sons to keep slavery alive in the 19th century. Today, I think, there are a whole lot of anti-DEI believers who want to reinstate segregation, even slavery if they could get away with it. We are not going back. The point tipped!

And man, if you opposed the Vietnam War in the 1960s, you were a commie, an un-American traitor and deserved to be jailed for life. Radical activists, pinkoes paid by “outside agitators” were fomenting protests that turned to riots, from the Democratic Convention of 1968 to the roiling protests across college campuses everywhere. Soldiers shot students at Kent State. But as we sent American boys to Vietnam, and as they came back in increasing numbers in body bags, there was a tipping point. An unpopular war soon ended. The “communism will push nations to fall like dominoes” theory died. And America returned to being the land of the free and the home of the brave!

Years later, as the Tea Party transitioned to MAGA, Citizens United vs FEC allowed rich zealots to buy public opinion without restrictions, and Donald Trump became President. Twice even. The George Floyd Protests began sending a message that conservatives did not want to hear. But when Donald Trump’s second term began, with full MAGA, as thousands of federal employees lost their jobs, as erratic economic policies began to tank our economy, as we replaced allegiance to our allies with entreaties to our traditional and highly autocratic foe, Russia, there were protests. As fires burned and storms raged, we all really knew climate change was not a “hoax.” At town halls happened where Republicans did not show up to face angry constituents, as Musk’s showrooms were picketed and Teslas set on fire (“domestic terrorism” was the MAGA label), as crowds of fired federal employees were joined by angry Americans, many of them veterans, and as Donald Trump tried to sell America on seriously wrong-headed economic policies… all leading to his promise to billionaires for major tax cut… There was a tipping point!!!!

I’m Peter Dekom, and if this Trumpian debacle bothers you as much as it bothers me… DO SOMETHING, DO MORE OF THAT SOMETHING, TAKE A LEAD FROM SENATOR CORY BOOKER WHO STOOD BEFORE THE SENATE FOR OVER 25 HOURS TO IMPLORE THAT BODY TO STOP THE MADDNESS… NOW!

While Trump Fiddles, the Nation Burns

 

While Trump Fiddles, the Nation Burns 

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

"We have massive Financial Deficits with China, the European Union, and many others… The only way this problem can be cured is with TARIFFS, which are now bringing Tens of Billions of Dollars into the U.S.A. They are already in effect, and a beautiful thing to behold. The Surplus with these Countries has grown during the 'Presidency' of Sleepy Joe Biden. We are going to reverse it, and reverse it QUICKLY. Some day people will realize that Tariffs, for the United States of America, are a very beautiful thing!" Trump on social media, April 6th… with a litany of total fabrications.

I’ll give you that the myth that Nero fiddled as Rome burned down was just that, a myth. But Donald Trump’s platitudes, as market continue to plunge and retaliatory reactionary measures are applied from countries facing absurdly high new US tariffs, are indeed terrifying. If we can stick with allusions to ancient Rome, Mr Trump has indeed crossed the Rubicon, a point of no return, where even if he were to declare a return to the minimal, pre-April 2nd trade restrictions, there are virtually no nations on earth that would trust this mercurial, acerbic bully… or even the United States itself, since after a very good recovery from the pandemic under a Democratic administration, voters opted to elect Trump a second time. As of this writing, Trump has engaged Elon Musk (with no discernable government or human relations skills) to destroy MAGA’s vision of the “deep state,” to wit almost the entire federal bureaucracy. To be replaced by MAGA believers, Trump ultra-loyalists. So far, Trump has “ordered” implementation of 42% of the Project 2025 platform.

As mosquito-born dengue fever is making an notable rise in warmer states, measles is spreading and killing children, bird flu is exercising its zoonotic abilities to cross into increasing numbers of animals (like dairy cows) and new strains of COVID are beginning to show what they can do, Trump’s least qualified cabinet appointment (and that is saying something given his clown car choices), RFK, Jr and, with DOGE help, is ordering a study as to why vaccines are dangerous as well as firing legions of highly trained, educated and experienced medical researchers who have spent decades protecting the American public against the spread of disease… very successfully.

As storms rage across the United States, Americans (particularly farmers) desperately need accurate weather reports… alas, DOGE has fired a whole pile of federal meteorologists and closed a number of their facilities. Perhaps in an effort to sidestep the Freedom of Information act, our highest national security, defense and diplomatic cabinet officers, seem routinely to use their unsecured personal smartphones and mildly encrypted chatrooms to discuss detailed military plans and capabilities. Meanwhile, the Defense Department has shut down the cyber-security watch against Russia. Indeed, “national security,” because we have been “invaded,” is the excuse that the Trump administration gives for routinely detaining aliens (even if here legally), and if they have any prominent tattoos, labeling them as gang members without any trial or due process. It is also Trumpian justification for ignoring court orders and shipping detainees to countries they are not from.

But here’s what most Americans are watching right now: “In the two days following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, U.S. stocks shed some $7 trillion in value, ratcheting global tensions and recession probabilities to new heights. But beyond the immediate panic-selling in the market, many on Wall Street are expressing deeper concerns about the second-order effects of an uber-tariffed world: domestic job losses, diminished corporate earnings, and threats to the very economic and political frameworks that keep capital flowing. The theories behind the Trump administration’s shock therapy approach vary, as does insiders’ advice on how to best navigate the headwinds. ‘Man, buckle your seatbelt,’ said one banker, ‘this is going to be one rough ride.’” William Cohan, April 7th, Puck.com

The EU is even considering applying the “bazooka retaliatory measure,” a 2023-passed Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows retaliation for trade restrictions imposed on the EU; if a diplomatic accord is not reached, the ACI can be used to shut access to its digital and financial markets to companies from the offending nation. Shutting down Facebook, X, Google and denying access to US investment and commercial banks?! Yup! Oh, and our non-51st state, Canada, has filed an action against the United States at the World Trade Organization.

When Trump appointed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, few knew that his former firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, was famous for betting against the US stock market, which made their bond trade more lucrative. Lutnick is the dude who suggested that if Social Security missed a month or two of beneficiary payments, only the fraudsters would complain… and that the tariff/trade wars were worth it even if the US faced a recession. DOGE’s approach to cutting sacred cows like Social Security and veterans’ medical benefits is to gut the relevant staffing needed to keep these systems running... so they snail and implode. But the rich are happy because the IRS staffing has been cut so profoundly, that the detailed audits needed to collect from these scofflaws won’t happen much anymore. The estimated loss from this move is 10% of our aggregate taxes paid.

But we face worse than a recession, more like a 1970s stagflation where prices go up as the economy sinks! And given the fact that the American voters elected Trump a second time as the economy was the best performer on earth, most of the world will not trust any commitment that the US makes for a very, very, long time. 

I’m Peter Dekom, and even a trust that has built up over a century can be eroded for decades by shifty moves such as the Trump tariffs and trade restrictions, particularly when the justification for such trade restrictions is based on lies and cannot actually be blamed on Biden, who left the country in great shape.

Fool’s Errand, Hardship, Layoffs, Instability, Isolation and Probable Recession

   

Fool’s Errand, Hardship, Layoffs, Instability, Isolation and Probable Recession

When Exactly Will the Majority of Republicans Get It?

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

Even if Trump’s wildly miscalculated tariff rates were repealed tomorrow, his whimsical nature of his billboard citing tariffs against American products solidified that the United States would lose massive credibility given how easily a rogue president could profoundly alter global trade… at any time. Experts looking at that billboard witnessed tariffs charged against sparsely- or unpopulated island nations that don’t export anything to the US. Russia wasn’t even on that list. As trade expert economists examined the tariffs he cited on April 2nd, which he claimed were supposed to be based on purported overseas tariffs being charged against us, appear to be totally unsubstantiated fabrications. What confused the numbers is that the Commerce Dept factored in our net trade deficit with the subject nation to determine the final result. Hence, the genuine opposing tariffs are buried in this combination. Even as Trump hinted that these tariffs would enhance our negotiation leverage, leadership around the world sent a different message: “enough already.” The prestigious UK publication, The Economist, perceived

The easily predictable layoffs have already begun after global stock markets (especially our own) took a nosedive. And sure there will be up days… but look at the big picture. Stellantis (Jeep-Chrysler) shut down their plants in Mexico and Canada and laid off hundreds of Michigan workers who manufactured key parts for cars made in those two countries. Supply chain disruptions, including goods already en route to the United States, have yet to be calculated. No one in the Trump administration could promise any near-term consumer price reductions, and experts suggested that the only benefit would be a severely weakened dollar, making imports even more expensive and our exports more attractive (in a trade war?). “Prepare for a period of hard times,” was the GOP refrain, but things are unlikely to get better under these new policies… ever!

Looking at the historical impact of massive tariff increases, it appeared to most who track such data, that even if the United States were to reshore massive manufacturing, it would take years to build or retrofit the necessary plants, and that would require corporate America to assume these tariffs are permanent… which most assume a Democrat in the White House would significantly reduce as soon as elected. As we learned from the Smoot-Hawley tariff imposed by Republican President Herbert Hoover in 1930 as his belief that this would end the Great Depression, more Americans lost their jobs, more banks failed, and more farms were foreclosed. FDR was the winner in the wholesale American rejection of Hoover’s policies. Trump touted that America was at its wealthiest per capita peak when tariffs were highest. That’s like comparing apples with machine parts. Relative “wealth” then would be deemed “poverty” today.

Indeed, where you find “expert” support for Trump’s tariffs, the explanation of the benefit from one Trump-supporting billionaire is extremely unsettling: “The investing mogul Ray Dalio said tariffs aren't just a matter of tax revenue — they're also a way for countries to prepare their economies for times of conflict and war… As the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs on China, the European Union, and dozens of other regions on Wednesday [3/2], Dalio wrote in a LinkedIn post that import taxes are ‘necessary in times of an international great power conflict.’" Business Insider, April 3rd. Oh great, we should be preparing for WWIII, now having alienated most of our allies.

As US farmers reeled after Trump’s first term tariffs on China, the government wound up writing these same farmers massive subsidy checks. Brazil, with a massive agricultural area (Mato Grosso, in yellow in the above map), cheered for joy at Trump’s announcement, offering its export crops – enough to replace a very large portion of American farm output – without buyers’ being entangled in a tariff-driven trade war.

Even as the US Senate, with significant Republican support, passed a resolution restoring US-Canadian trade relations back to normal, challenging whether there really was an “emergency” enabling Trump to dictate tariffs. Speaker Mike “Donald is always right” Johnson (a huge believer that the United States should accept being a white Christian nationalist country), used a procedural move to make sure that resolution would never be considered by the House. Even with the recent election results (e.g. Florida), the GOP just ranted.

In a state that Trump carried in November, in an election that Elon Musk called as one percentage point difference between Wisconsin’s liberal candidate for that state’s supreme court and the MAGA/Trump choice, the liberal justice prevailed 55-45. Not believing that with Musk’s massive campaign support and that Wisconsin was perceived as Trump country, MAGA supporters fell back on their tired, worn-out, rigged election mantra. “MAGA Republicans are claiming that the Wisconsin election that saw liberal Judge Susan Crawford win a state Supreme Court seat was ‘rigged’ after ballots ran out at seven polling locations in Milwaukee.” Irish Star, April 2nd. They preferred their explanation rather than the obvious: no one planned on such a massive turnout in an off-year, special election. Voters were sending Mr Trump a message.

As Trump/Musk self-destruct – don’t worry about a Trump’s being elected for a third term; it will never happen – but the Democrats desperately need a plan, clear and unifying. Start with pushing DEI into the background, because if Dems do not get elected, they cannot help those most damaged by this vector. Eliminate high-earners and corporations from any tax cuts, relegating any tax reductions to those earning less than $500K/year. Restore all reductions to the infrastructure bill, and to incent the job creators, also restore the bulk of federally funded research, direct and through our great universities. Accept climate change as real and act accordingly. Oil stocks will continue to erode as alternative energy inevitably moves forward. And drill, baby, drill into restoring medical research, because as the only developed nation without universal healthcare, our relevant metrics are getting worse:

“Fifty years ago, life expectancy in the U.S. and wealthy European countries was relatively similar… That began to change around 1980. As European life expectancy steadily increased, the U.S. struggled to keep pace — and its life expectancy even began declining in 2014… Today, the wealthiest middle-aged and older adults in the U.S. have roughly the same likelihood of dying over a 12-year period as the poorest adults in northern and western Europe, according to a study published Wednesday [3/2] in The New England Journal of Medicine.” NBC New, April 2nd.

Focus on what’s good for average Americans and stop wasting taxpayer dollars on eliminating “woke” books from public libraries (even from our military colleges), renaming parks and even renaming an international body of water (the Gulf of _____), which name has existed for centuries. Keep government out of the “retribution” business. Give all Americans, particularly the red states who need it most, first rate disaster relief, full federal support for state public education, ease and efficiency in accessing the federal agencies with whom they deal the most and treat our veterans like the heroes they are. Restore our faith in the judicial system. And show you care, empathize and are not the radical leftist the MAGA folks believe. In the end, Trump taught us a really huge lesson: if you want to win, you have win voters’ ATTENTION first. Let the battle begin! 

I’m Peter Dekom, and every time you hear Donald Trump use the word “perfect,” you know either something went or is about to go terribly wrong.

Full and Fair Elections? Trump Will Never Let that Happen!

 

Full and Fair Elections? Trump Will Never Let that Happen!

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

Trump is watching the same town hall reactions were all are. Even now, he is becoming aware that Republicans are extremely unlikely to hold a majority in either house of Congress in the midterms, even with the Democrats in complete disarray. Unless the elections are “fixed.” Even as he issues his standard executive-orders-as-law to rig the election to his liking, he is equally aware that the courts will probably slap him down… but his MAGA lackies in Congress will get the hint and redefine requirements for voters of federal candidates. Trump insiders are bending over backwards to get Trump’s vision, even these new “fire everybody in sight” policies, implemented. Some suggest that DOGE operatives are even sabotaging agency software to prove their point, particularly at that “Ponzi scheme” (Musk’s words) Social Security Administration:

“Insiders at the Social Security Administration are accusing billionaire Elon Musk of deliberately sabotaging the agency as the changes he's demanded to protocols have resulted in repeated webpage crashes and interminable phone waits for beneficiaries… In interviews with the Washington Post , current and former SSA employees said they believed Musk and his minions at the Department of Government Efficiency were trying to break Social Security to justify privatizing it… ‘They’re creating a fire to require them to come and put it out,’ said one former high-ranking SSA official who took an early retirement offer earlier this year.´” Raw Story, March 25th. So, it’s not surprising, as reported by ABC News (March 25th), that consumer confidence continues to plunge as Trump’s unpopular economic policies a are scaring an increasing number of voters. Trump is aware that if the midterms were held today, the GOP would be crushed.

Ensuring victory in the next the election has become a Trump goal. And yes, as I have suggested in several blogs, it is actually happening. Trump will do what he has often, falsely accused others of doing: rigging elections so he does not otherwise have to find an excuse to delay or cancel them for “national security” reasons. With reports (Reuters, March 25th) that operatives from China are targeting disgruntled fired federal employees as potential spies, with high-ranking Trump appointees using unsecured platforms to communicate highly sensitive military attack plans, you have to wonder exactly how seriously the Trump administration really cherishes genuine national security. According Joseph De Avila and Mariah Timms, writing for the March 25th The Wall Street Journal (a conservative newspaper), Trump has begun to fix the midterms:

“President Trump signed an executive order Tuesday [3/25] that aims to reshape how elections are carried out in the U.S. by setting new identification requirements for voter registration and prohibiting the counting of absentee or mail-in ballots received after Election Day.

“The order marks a significant push to increase the executive branch’s influence over elections, which are administered by the states. Trump’s latest action threatens to pull the small amount earmarked by Congress for elections from states that fail to meet the provisions. It will likely be challenged in court.

“The order creates new proof-of-citizenship requirements for people attempting to register to vote through federal forms. Most people register to vote via their state. The requirements include providing documentary proof of citizenship like a passport or a Real ID-compliant drivers license for national mail voter registration. The order also enlists the Justice Department and the commissioner of Social Security in efforts to find ineligible voters.

“Trump has tasked the Department of Government Efficiency, which is advised by Elon Musk, with wading into sensitive voter registration data to look for inaccuracies. Earlier this month several federal judges blocked DOGE members from accessing other federal databases that contain Americans’ personal information.”

This result would be especially harsh for less affluent Americans, those unlike to vote for Republicans anyway: people not born in hospitals, those who don’t hold passports because they cannot afford to travel and others whose life from birth has not required government IDs. It has been a standard MAGA ploy, where gerrymandering is not enough, to cull voter roles either on technicalities or categorical exclusion… or by requiring in-person voting and then making sure the voting stations are nowhere near minority neighborhoods. Even as courts reject this order, a GOP congress lurks ready to obey the master.

“Portions of [the Trump executive] order mirrors the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or SAVE Act, which was supported by House Speaker Mike Johnson, (R-La.) and was reintroduced this year after failing to make it out of the Senate in 2024. Critics of the bill say implementing it could block U.S. citizens who have changed their names or haven’t updated their passports from registering. They say it would also place unwieldy burdens on state administrators to create or expand policies and access to sensitive information databases.

“Trump doesn’t have the authority to issue an executive order establishing new identification requirements to register to vote, said Wendy Weiser, vice president for democracy at the Brennan Center for Justice, a left-leaning advocacy organization.

“‘This would actually harm eligible American citizens,’ Weiser said. ‘This would be tens of millions of American citizens who could be excluded from registering from voting.’… Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, applauded the order… ‘Requiring proof of citizenship, paper ballot trails, and investigating fraud are all commonsense steps to protect the vote,’ Whatley said.” WSJ. Yet after each election, as “voter fraud” is always touted by the MAGA right, there is never any measurable fraud ever found. The myth persists because it sounds good.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the only “good news” from these Trumpian unlawful manipulations is that, so far, Trump expects there to be elections.

How to Make America Poor and Stupid Again – Cave Into Trump’s Culture War

 

 How to Make America Poor and Stupid Again – Cave Into Trump’s Culture War

Undermine Academic Freedom and Defund Scientific Research if Universities Don’t “de-Woke” 

PETER ON THE WRITERS’ HANGOUT PODCAST!

Supporters of the Know Nothing movement [1840-50s] believed that an alleged "Romanist" conspiracy to subvert civil and religious liberty in the United States was being hatched by Catholics. Therefore, they sought to politically organize native-born Protestants in defense of their traditional religious and political values. The Know Nothing movement is remembered for this theme because Protestants feared that Catholic priests and bishops would control a large bloc of voters… Members of the movement were required to say "I know nothing" whenever they were asked about its specifics by outsiders, providing the group with its colloquial name. 

Wikipedia, where “native Americans” meant White Protestants

When the nation was young and truly “stupid,” conspiracy theories spawned political movements that captured the minds of an uneducated electorate. The United States was a relatively small and inconsequential nation then, but American drive and technological innovation made America the great economic power it has been since the industrial revolution. Today, with the most modern technology and medical tools and cures on earth, the push toward autocracy carries with it a toxic disruptive force: pushing “right thinking” (as defined by the MAGA minority) as this nation’s highest priority, elevating bizarre conspiracy theories well above truth and facts.

Lockstep conformity, adherence to “right thinking” principles “or else,” is the bullwork of the authoritarian control; dissent or alternative thinking is severely punished. Think: the purge and forced “re-education” of Uighurs in Western China or the Siberian gulags where those daring alternative thought in Russia are sent… if not simply tortured and killed. If those methods are not attractive to you, look around you. Law firms challenging the Trump vision are denied security clearances and face clear attack if they do not tow the MAGA line. Bibles are popping up in public school classrooms in several states, as local attorneys general push for a Supreme Court reversal of the separation of church and state. And so much more.

They key to instill “right thinking” as a mandatory substitute requires mass media (under attack now) and social media to spread and repeat misinformation constantly. Trump’s “excuse” is often to purge antisemitism and expressed sympathies for Palestinians in Gaza, no matter the peacefulness of the expression. As Jewish students marched into Trump Tower with signs reading “not in our name,” Trump ignored them. Allowing them would be to subvert his direct control.

The online social networks are the instrumentalities that change our cultural values from empirical facts to fanciful and often dangerous conspiracy theories. In an ironic twist, when users of X query Musk’s statements, his own X-dwelling Grok chatbot labels Musk as a major source of misinformation! Trump has mandated that the theoretically independent Smithsonian purge itself of exhibits and programs that are out of step with Trump’s vision of America.

But the most horrific Trump practice is the to cut scientific and medical research grants from some our most advanced and prestigious universities if they do not alter their academic programs (in the case of Columbia University, literally to put certain ethnic studies under direct Trump receivership). With funds cut in the middle research projects involving millions of dollars of equipment manned by some of our most educated scientists, there is a new wave of fear and doubt sweeping across those incredibly experienced and educated scientists, the same people who are derided by MAGA believers as “elitists” who are “out of touch” without a belief in “Jesus Christ our savior” who has “anointed” Donald Trump as our autocratic leader. They revere the medical quackery of HHS head, RFK, Jr, and scoff at medical facts. The results are sobering. Columbia University was the first to be slammed by Trump, but hardly the last:

“When President Trump canceled $400 million in funding to Columbia University over its handling of student protests against Israel’s war in Gaza, much of the financial pain fell on researchers a train ride away from the school’s campus, working on things such as curing cancer and studying COVID-19’s impact on children… The urgency of salvaging ongoing research projects at the university’s labs and world-renowned medical center was one factor in Columbia’s decision last week to bow to the Republican administration’s unprecedented demands for changes in university policy as a condition of getting funding restored.

“The Ivy League university announced Friday [3/21] that it would overhaul its student disciplinary process, ban protesters from wearing masks, bar demonstrations from academic buildings, adopt a new definition of antisemitism and put its Middle Eastern studies program under the supervision of a vice provost who would have a say over curriculum and hiring.

“The university’s decision to accede to nearly all of the Trump administration’s demands outraged some faculty members, who say Columbia has sacrificed academic freedom. The American Assn. of University Professors and the American Federation of Teachers, representing members of Columbia’s faculty, filed a lawsuit Tuesday [3/25] saying the funding revocation violated free speech laws.” Philip Marcelo for the March 27th Associated Press.

It gets a whole lot worse from there: “More than three-quarters of scientists in the U.S are weighing leaving the country and are looking at Europe and Canada as their top relocation spots, according to a new survey released on Thursday [3/27]… The scientific journal Nature poll found that 75.3 percent of scientists are considering leaving the U.S. after the administration cut funding for research. Nearly a quarter of respondents, 24.7 percent, disagreed.

“The highest contingent of researchers who are looking to move out of the country are those who are early in their careers. Nearly 550, out of 690 who responded to the survey, said they are considering leaving the U.S. Out of the 340 PhD students, 255 shared the same inclination, the poll found… The administration, along with tech billionaire and close Trump advisor Elon Musk, with the help of the Department of Government Efficiency, have terminated entire agencies and made cuts in the last two months in an effort to shrink the size and scope of the federal government.

“Some of those reductions were felt at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), where all grants for equity issues, which encompass studying Black maternal health and HIV, were canceled. The cap on indirect costs of NIH grants was capped at 15 percent.” The Hill, March 28th. Trump’s policies mirror those of an autocratic banana republic… and unless stopped, will shove the United States into an uncompetitive global also-ran, where our “greatness” will be relegated to the history books. None of these policies will even maintain what greatness with still have! 

I’m Peter Dekom, and while the breadth and scope of the Trump/Musk destruction of what really made us great will be mire the United States in an artificial intelligence-dominated nation of poverty and mediocrity.