“‘The
common mistake is to assume when the North Koreans talk about denuclearization
of the Korean peninsula, they’re talking about giving up all their weapons,’
said Victor Cha, who headed Asian affairs in the National Security Council
under President George W. Bush and who took part in nuclear talks with North
Korea at the time.Tuesday, June 5, 2018
R-e-s-p-e-c-t!
No, John Bolton’s Libya
model – where the dictator agrees to give up a nuclear arms program in exchange
for accepting his rule only to be deposed a few years later with help from
those who pledged to leave him in power – was not the way to convince Kim Jong-Un
to give up his nukes. And trust me, as much as Kim wants more money in his
totalitarian state, no Mr. Trump, opening up American-driven economic
opportunity – even a McDonalds in Pyongyang – isn’t the big prize in his eyes.
The imminent on-again-off-again-but-now-back-on-again direct Trump/Kim meeting
in Singapore has two autocrats trying to move the other where he just doesn’t
want to go.
The Americans want Kim to
surrender his existing nuclear warheads (estimated at 20 to 70), tear apart his
capacity to make more and allow inspectors free access to verify wherever and
whenever they choose, but nukes be gone! We would accord the North some
economic benefits and probably agree to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and
perhaps our nuclear weapons in nearby countries (e.g., Japan). Kim wants to be
recognized as a world statesman in a nation with full nuclear weapons, ready to
take his place with the other nuclear nations to negotiate a global movement to
denuclearize. He’ll give up his nukes as part of a global movement to
denuclearize. He may agree to stop testing, but he already has those weapons
ready if he needs them.
“‘The
common mistake is to assume when the North Koreans talk about denuclearization
of the Korean peninsula, they’re talking about giving up all their weapons,’
said Victor Cha, who headed Asian affairs in the National Security Council
under President George W. Bush and who took part in nuclear talks with North
Korea at the time.
“‘It’s
not really the way we look at it, which is ‘Crate it up and take it out,’ ‘
said Cha, who now heads the Korea program at the nonpartisan Center for
Strategic and International Studies.
“Rather,
he said, North Koreans view denuclearization as a long-term aspiration, the way
Americans talk of someday abolishing nuclear weapons from the globe. North
Korea has a long list of other grievances, and could demand the removal of U.S.
troops, or even the U.S. nuclear umbrella, from South Korea.
“‘It’s
an endless list,’ said Michael Green, another veteran of Bush-era negotiations
with North Korea. ‘They will keep adding to the list of things we have to do in
order for them to denuclearize until the cows come home.’”
“Most
experts say Pyongyang wants to be recognized as a full-fledged nuclear power
with the weapons it has, but with global obligations, much as then-isolated
communist China’s nuclear arms program ultimately was accepted after President
Nixon’s historic visit to Beijing in 1972.” Los Angeles Times, June 3rd.
Indeed,
it’s a common argument among rising nuclear powers. What justifies the United
States and the West, then Russia and China, having nuclear weapons and then to decide
the future right of other nations to have such weapons. Israel. India.
Pakistan. North Korea… and perhaps Iran someday (I suspect sooner now that the
US has pulled out of the six party nuclear accord that contained Iran’s nuclear
program). What gives “you, America, the right” to tell the world who does or
does not have the right to have a nuclear capacity? Why does America even get
to protest… the only nation ever to deploy a nuclear weapon (two in fact)
against an enemy… civilian targets with devastating effect?
Could
Trump pull off a complete denuclearization of North Korea? It is possible, but
experts see a long process and that to be practical, the results (if there are
any) may be to start with less. Whatever the outcome, this is probably going to
be a drawn-out process that could take years. But so far, Kim Jong-un has
played Donald Trump like a fiddle. Kim appears reasonable. He has China on his
side again. He got a place on the world stage without making a single
concession, including a face-to-face with his arch enemy, the President of the
United States. He’s already worked out a modus vivendi to South Korea’s
President Moon, right under Trump’s nose… without Trump. And what have we got
for our troubles so far… Exactly.
I’m Peter Dekom, and global diplomacy
and “The Art of the Deal” are absolutely unrelated skill-sets.
Monday, June 4, 2018
Reunion
So it was time for my big
50th Yale reunion, and I was filled with so many feelings over those
four short days. Courses for alumni in emotional intelligence and biodiversity.
An interview to our class with classmate George W Bush. We were one of the last
two all-male undergraduate classes at that university. Lots of stories from
privileged wealth and those with luxurious retirements (a word that makes me
cringe), those who are still struggling, remembering those who died (from
casualties during the Vietnam War to nature’s cruel attrition) including wives
and children… and gathering a snapshot of how Yale fits into the current
chaotic world around us.
I was gratified to see
very little support for, and lots of rather passionate criticism of, Donald
Trump and his deeply negative impact on the status of the presidency. Even
among conservatives, his mendacious style and complete inability to tolerate a
free and open press were troublesome. In a class where the dominant professions
were concentrated heavily in four fields – law, medicine, finance and academia
– the consistency of negative conversation about Donald Trump was everywhere.
Even stalwart
ultra-conservatives, happy that corporate America is doing better than it ever
has (at least in market valuation) and that unemployment is particularly low,
there was a very uneasy feeling about the immediate future. About the almost
certain negative economic impact of the new trade wars and a rather surprising
acknowledgement of how shallow the jobs picture (and the underlying median real
wage rates) really is and how our overall economic picture unravels quickly
when you look at the underlying forces at work here and around the world. While
many are enjoying the benefits of the tax reform act, they easily acknowledge
that there will be a longer-term price to pay… as many in finance relocate from
NYC (with high and mostly undeductible state taxes) to their second homes in
low or no income tax states.
While I still hold George
W Bush (who ignored his father’s advice on the subject) responsible for
literally handing Iraq into Iran’s firm grip (the regional Shiite cabal) by
deposing (Sunni) Saddam Hussein, escalating destabilization in the Middle East
by quantum leaps for decades to come, his sentiments on Donald Trump and
current GOP policies was refreshing. While he tried to avoid naming Donald
Trump specifically, he often slipped up.
It’s pretty clear that W
deeply dislikes Trump: “I didn’t vote for him.” He feels the United States now
has a heartless foreign and domestic policy, dislikes Trump’s slam on
immigrants, thinks Trump should support a critical free press as a democratic
necessity, feels that Trump should have given up tweeting the day he was
elected (noting that such continuing tweets seriously erode the stature of the
office), believes that trade wars can create very deep economic decline and that
isolationism and go-it-alone international initiatives will severely harm
America’s power and influence for decades to come. Interesting. But we also
learned a bit about how our students are impacted by an overly-competitive
world.
The hard statistics
presented in some of those academic classes offered to alumni were eye-opening,
along with parallel conversations with a few of the undergrads still at the
university after classes and exams had passed. Research tells us that 40% of
America’s undergraduates will seek serious mental health counseling at some
critical time in their undergraduate years. The primary emotive words elicited
from college students today about school include “stress,” “anxiety,”
“exhaustion” and “loneliness.” They are overwhelmed, many to the point of being
unable to do much of anything. The academic stress extends down into high
school, at least among children aiming for the better colleges, but when many
schools try and lighten the load of high schoolers getting 4-5 hours of sleep
on average, parents often complain that their kids will not be able to compete
to get into good schools.
Anecdotally, my
conversations with some of those undergrad hold-overs (many to work on our
reunion) were equally revealing. Half a century ago, just about everyone
intended to continue their educations into some form of graduate or
professional school. But talking to sophomores and juniors today, that thought
was no longer uniformly ubiquitous. Young men and women even in vigorous math
or scientific disciplines were often at a loss at their post-undergraduate
plans. Career paths and further education.
One obviously mega-gifted
young woman from Brooklyn, New York City – majoring in “computer sciences in
the arts” – explained why she needed to expand beyond a major purely focused on
comp-sci. For every hour of comp-sci class (and generally there are three class
hours per week in each course), there were 15 hours of writing code… which if
you take two or more comp-sci courses creates “life impossible.” So she needed
to dilute that schedule demand. Even as Yale’s newly focused faculty on
emotional intelligence and more humanistic educational goals is considered a
leader in that field, Yale College imposes schedules and course requirements
that cut deeply into any possibility of reducing that stress and anxiety. Will
they get that together? One would hope.
And on the other end of
hope – true hopelessness among those whose lives did not embrace schooling and
skills – was the experience of an orthopedic surgeon who worked out of a major
university hospital in the Sacramento, California area. He has been deluged with
young people – whom he described as absolutely unemployable and seriously
physically and mentally damaged – by the drug addiction they use to escape
their reality. His description of the young men and women he treats, bodies and
bones seriously and permanently decimated by addictions to crystal meth, was
staggeringly sad. It rekindled my own readings about those once-highly-paid
blue collar workers (particularly in the coal mines) who have lost their jobs
and will never, never get them back despite pledges to the contrary from Donald
Trump. Wherever that job loss is heavy, so rise the addiction rates to
OxyContin, meth and fentanyl-laced heroin. The other America. Trump’s America.
While I enjoyed seeing
old friends and talking about old times, the reunion clearly reflected the
confusion and chaos of the world around us. There was so much more sadness and
frustration than joy at the legacy our generation seems to have left to the
generations behind us. We were once among the best and the brightest. Where did
we go wrong? How did we get here? And can the rising generations take over and
fix our mess?
I’m
Peter Dekom, and I look back on my own life and think how I might have made
things just a tiny bit different if I had become more socially and politically active
earlier in my career.
Friday, June 1, 2018
Heartlessness
If
you examine the words “America First,” you have to go back to the times before
and after World War I. Leaders, from purported liberal humanist Woodrow Wilson
to conservative hardliner Warren Harding, to understand that this phrase and
those leaders particularly stood for one thing: white supremacy. “America
First” has a very clear and unambiguous meaning throughout modern American
history.
The
Ku Klux Klan has pretty much faded from existence until in 1915/16, when the
film Birth of a Nation glorified the
Klan, and both Democrats and Republicans then began their quest to reverse the
slow movement post-Civil War assimilation of African-Americans into mainstream
America. It was never easy for black Americans. Jim Crow laws abounded. Blacks
who pressed their rights were often found hanging from nearby trees (right on
up to the middle of the 20th century), the perpetrators never
pursued. Wilson reversed the policy of allowing African-Americans to hold
federal civil service jobs. By 1925, a reinvigorated Klan marched proudly and
openly down Constitution Avenue in our nation’s capital (see above).
The
white evangelical movement that stands solidly behind Donald Trump today knows exactly
what those words mean. Under a misguided view of “law and order,” they stand
behind numerous blue on black “shoot first” killings of black Americans, have
no problem with ICE’s rounding up undocumented “brown” aliens regardless of any
criminal activity, separating them from their children, all detained separately
waiting for heavily backlogged immigration courts, most for months on end (some
for years) under AG Jeff Sessions’ “zero tolerance” policy.
Some
evangelical pastors have called for their flock to bring their guns to worship
services, telling them that God intended for them to use those weapons to
protect themselves and their way of life. Indeed, the zeal of these
evangelicals’ mistaken belief in an expansive interpretation of the Second
Amendment borders on a religious experience, many also believing that their
right to bear arms is a God-given right reflected in our Constitution. So what
if the Bible bans the elevation of icons – like guns – to effective worship.
Having
been raised as a white protestant myself, Episcopal not evangelical, I continue
to be aghast at any person who believes themselves to be a good “Christian”
holding any of the above values, much less believing that they are God-ordained
or supported. The New Testament, which is reflective of values in many other
faiths, was a reaction to the harsh “eye for an eye” proscriptive message of
the Old Testament. Effectively a “book of Jesus,” the New Testament is a rather
deep and passionate cry for tolerance, brotherly love, forgiveness, charity and
peace.
There
is no cry to take up the sword. There is no free pass for those who inflict
cruelty for any reason. There is no mandate to exclude. There is no requirement
that charity can only be extended to those who share the same beliefs. There
are no walls to be built to protect selfish interests and deny those in
desperate need. Instead, Christians are admonished to forgive, help those in
need, “turn the other cheek” and not sit in judgment of others. Nothing brings
home the notion of forgiveness and tolerance like this New Testament passage
from John 8:1-11:
Early in the morning
He came again to the temple. All the people came to Him, and He sat down
and taught them. The scribes and the Pharisees brought a woman who had
been caught in adultery, and placing her in the midst they said to Him,
‘Teacher, this woman has been caught in the act of adultery. Now in the Law, Moses commanded
us to stone such women. So what do you say?’ This
they said to test Him, that they might
have some charge to bring against Him. Jesus bent down and wrote with his
finger on the ground. And as they continued to ask Him, He stood up and
said to them, ‘Let
him who is without sin among you be the first to throw a stone at her.’ And
once more He bent down and wrote on the ground. But when they heard it, they went away one
by one, beginning with the older ones, and Jesus was left alone with the woman
standing before Him.
I am deeply disappointed in those evangelical
pastors (and of course their followers), championing candidates and public
officials with rather clear moral short-comings (ranging from inappropriate
sexual contact with minors, serial adultery to abusing the public trust through
lying and corruption), believing that God has anything to do with any purported
right to bear arms, preaching intolerance, bigotry and commanding their flocks to
act as judge, jury and themselves charged to mete out punishment. Hiding behind
a sacred text to stand for what seems to me to be the direct opposite of the
message of the New Testament is incomprehensible to me.
I am not sure how this can be accomplished, but
for each and every American – whether Christian, Jew, Muslim, Hindu, any other
faith or those with their own spiritual or non-religiously based moral code – I
ask them to reach deep within and explain to themselves how their own beliefs
and actions fare under a true interpretation of their own moral dictates. I do
not believe that the majority of those guided by such a moral code can justify
any of the above intolerant beliefs upon such a personal inquiry.
I’m
Peter Dekom, and aside from the moral questions raised above, I am not sure how
the American form of democracy (majority rule while protecting minority rights)
can sustain with the growing notion that heartlessness is the new,
Trump-sanctioned core American value.
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