Polls and the Approach-Avoidance Gradient

I remember this concept from undergrad psychology 101. It basically says that if you have a rising fear or a falling level of anticipation (the “strength of the tendency”) as you approach a goal, if that “I just can't do it” moment hits before you reach the goal, you… er … won't do it. If the rise in fear or the fall of anticipation has a vector that crosses that line after the scheduled time that the goal/decision can be reached, you will.

And hence the election polls and their accuracy. In this “most important election in my lifetime” moment in our history, polls are nothing more than a measure of the “strength of the tendency” at a specific moment before the election. If there are changes in polling and trend lines as we near November 4, it simply identifies that this approach-avoidance gradient is a major factor in this race for the Presidency, but these measurements do not tell you whether that “will” or “will not” “do it” moment crosses the line before or after the election. Polls that are demographically specific may identify the population segments most impacted by this phenomenon, but the result remains elusive.

Thus, whether myth, race, age, experience, or any number of other considerations are the “fear factor,” all this negative campaigning can tell you making the “approach-avoidance” voter’s fear rise faster has reached a new level of priority in modern elections. When the answers to the problems are not clear – hence anticipation is left to generalities (“change” or “experience” types of mantras) – fear becomes the easier vector to induce than hope. Issues blur and it becomes a race of personalities – a political “American Idol.” It’s a shame too, because at no time in my memory, has America needed competent solutions, hope and leadership more than we do today.

So what do we do? Well other than looking at competence and leadership, we voters need to step back from the notion that this is a personality contest, try as hard as we can to address what our “fear” factors might be (and eliminate the ones that we're not proud of), drill down on the issues as best we can… and vote. It truly is the “most important election in our lifetimes.”

I’m Peter Dekom, and I approve this message.