Thursday, March 12, 2009

Woe is Me!





The President is telling us that the economy is not “as bad as we think” – I will ignore the 30% increase in February foreclosure notices, the record 5.3 million adults that the Labor Department says are unemployed (8.1% direct unemployment, 15% unemployment under the government’s “alternative measurement” – the highest in a quarter century), the 6.2% 4th quarter contraction in the gross domestic product (the worst since the end of the Great Depression), the worse drop in family net worth from October to December since 1951 ($5.1 trillion), the continuing free fall of home values … and look at the good news: Bernie Madoff is in jail, and the market’s in a seeming rally. Even GM stock is up on news that they aren’t drawing on their next government bailout loan installment.


After all, the “market” is that leading economic indicator that trades based on future expectations (unlike housing starts, employment, etc. which are trailing indicators). Think they can keep it going? Remember, traders do seem to be focused on one huge issue that my blog has hammered on often: the toxic assets on the balance sheets of so many big banks.


Madlen Read, writing for the March 12th Associated Press, reported: “The rally got an extra dose of adrenaline [on the 12th] after an accounting board told Congress it may recommend an easing in financial reporting rules of tough-to-sell assets — a change that banks say would help their bottom lines. Upheaval in the banking industry has been dogging the market since 2007, and hope that banks might finally get relief in how they value their bad assets spurred a flurry of buying on Wall Street… ‘We might find that the banks are not as bad, or not bad at all, if these assets are marked differently," said Doreen Mogavero, president of the New York floor brokerage Mogavero, Lee & Co.’” Love labels, don’t you?


So does that news (and the President’s cheery statement) make you happy or unhappy? A March 12th piece put together by AP’s Kevin Freking (great name, huh?!) reported on a new poll on Americans' well-being during this mess, conducted by Gallup in partnership with Healthways and America 's Health Insurance Plans. I call it the happy face poll. It seems that the unhappiest states in the land are West Virginia (sheer misery) followed in order by Kentucky, Mississippi, Ohio and Arkansas, but the happiest states, in order, are Utah (really happy), Hawaii, Wyoming, Colorado and Minnesota.


I started to think that skiing must have had something to do with it (okay, Hawaii would have to be water skiing, but hey?) or that folks who voted for that other guy were still brooding (doesn’t explain Ohio ), but I think it has to do more with fun, open space and jobs. And then I got to thinking how Mother Nature must be looking at this economic malaise; if She is, maybe She is saying, “Silly, people, if you consume and waste less because you have less, my natural beauty is only enhanced by keeping my natural resources intact, my air and seas are a bit less polluted because you aren’t sucking oil out of me and spewing garbage all the time; keep up the good work.”


We’ve had two consecutive months with a Friday the 13th! But all we’re gonna be happy and most certainly not triskaidekaphobic, right?! No worries!


I’m Peter Dekom, and someone seems to have hit the “reset” button.

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