Without Parallel

The North Korean actions of late, testing a rather large nuclear underground weapon – and then bragging about it, testing a pile of medium-range missiles that could reach Alaska – and then bragging about, openly defying U.N. resolutions and generating uniform international condemnation – and then bragging about it, have drawn a spate of theories behind this provocative act. Few actually believe that the North can believe that the missiles can actually deploy the warheads effectively, but we have been wrong so many times in underestimating their capabilities that I find little solace in this assumption.

The more general responses (prevailing “theories”) to this series of defiant and provocative acts fall within several categories: 1. There is a succession problem as reigning prelate, Kim Jong Il, seems to be of particularly bad health. He wishes to install one of his two sons in the leadership role, but the military must be placated as a precondition. Since soldiers like big bad explosive devices, reigniting the nuclear weapons program may simply be the price of admission and approval. 2. With starving people living a marginal existence, the North is a miserable and repressive place to live. Well, if the people can’t eat butter, show them your might and power, made them feel empowered in another way, and give them guns… really big guns. 3. The North is creating massive bargaining chips for future negotiations. Financial aid. Territorial guarantees. And if that doesn’t work, they can sell nuclear capacity to the highest bidder, which is perhaps the most dangerous aspect of the current testing. 4. Kim and his senior leaders want a lot more respect from the world. Notorious saber-rattlers and threat-mongers, they simply want a bigger saber and more credible threats to boost that “respect.” 5. All of the above.

The fact that there are so many theories is disturbing. It shows how the dark veil of secrecy and violent repression make the North an almost impenetrable nightmare of political and military insanity. Kim likes Western booze, movies and a touch of decadence, even as his subjects live a life which at best can be described as austere, but most would call it abject poverty. Land is handed over to powerful factions within the North to grow cash crops (including drugs) for export, even as workers in nearby towns hug the edge of starvation. Slave labor proliferates.

South Korea, still reeling from the apparent suicide, because of massive corruption charges, of a former President who had begun to forge ties to the North during his tenure, is now forced to deal with a neighbor that seems to be backing violently away from rapprochement. South Korea’s president, Lee Myung-bak, has indicated a willingness to join in an American-led effort to interdict North Korean ships in order to stop the possibility of nuclear proliferation. The North has responded: “‘We consider this a declaration of war against us,’ an unidentified North Korean military spokesman said [May 27^th] in a statement carried by the North’s official news agency, KCNA. ‘Any hostile act against our peaceful vessels, including search and seizure, will be considered an unpardonable infringement on our sovereignty and we will immediately respond with a powerful military strike.’” May 27^th NY Times.

These remarks have moved both South Korea and U.S. to raise their regional military alert status to the second highest level – Watchcon 2, where there is a perceived “grave threat.” Intelligence gathering, reconnaissance flights and heightened military preparedness obviously have escalated. The May 29^th NY Times quoted U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates as he addressed an Asian security conference in Singapore: “We will not stand idly by as North Korea builds the capability to wreak destruction on any target in the region — or on us.”

While the U.S. has repeatedly said that it will not accept North Korea as a nuclear power, it is a nuclear power. For years, the U.S. wouldn’t even talk to the Koreans unless they stopped their weapons programs; Kim Jong Il merrily continued knowing he wouldn’t have to deal with American negotiators. The U.S. is sending a “reassessment” team to Asia to help plot the next political response to North Korea’s military escalation. “Mr. Gates concluded that the United States, ‘in our efforts to protect our own freedom, and that of others’ had ‘from time to time made mistakes, including at times being arrogant in dealing with others.’” May 29^th NY Times.

Recent naval skirmishes between North and South in the last year have underscored the deteriorating situation in the region, and the North went one giant step farther with this additional note: “[T]hey ‘no longer feel bound by the armistice’ that ended the fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War. Technically, the two Koreas have remained at war for more than 50 years, because the 1953 armistice never gave way to a final peace treaty. North Korea has previously called the 1953 armistice a ‘useless piece of paper.’” May 27^th NY Times. In short, we’ve pretty much fallen short on our military intelligence on Kim’s efforts (it really is a tough isolated and insular country to crack) and have been completely ineffective in confronting that menace.

The image of the New York Philharmonic playing in North Korea at the end of February shows exactly how bad the situation has become since then. But the fact that we do not have a clear understanding of North Korea’s underlying rational makes me worry that whatever our response might me could be wide of the mark. But we will respond.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I approve this message.