Thursday, August 18, 2011

Will Revolutionaries Become Resolutionaries?

As long as the votes take place within the United Nations Security Council, the United States (along with several other nations), as a permanent member, has veto power. That extraordinary super-voting power does not exist at the larger, vastly more inclusive, General Assembly (pictured above), where a two-thirds majority is sufficient for the United Nations to recognize a new nation as a viable state. And the question of Palestinian autonomy will probably be presented to the General Assembly next month.

Such a vote is not the be-all-and-end-all of UN membership, however: “It is a near certainty that the United Nations General Assembly will consider a resolution recognizing Palestinian statehood in September 2011. The vote would be largely symbolic – the General Assembly cannot grant statehood. U.N. membership is not assured without prior consent from the permanent Security Council members. Outside the ivory tower of the U.N., such recognition is only achieved through unilateral acknowledgement by independent, sovereign states.” Foreign Policy Journal, July 13, 2011.

It appears, however, that such a General Assembly vote is all but certain, forcing the issue to the Security Council for a membership vote, and placing the United States in an exceptionally awkward position, particularly if it acts alone in support of Israel’s position on Palestine: “Despite the fact that this distinctively token [General Assembly] vote meets the measure of forlorn hope, its consequences will be very real… Although the formal peace process has clearly stalled, the mere discussion of Palestinian state has come at Israel’s expense. Passage of the measure would demonstrate the Jewish state’s growing isolation from the international community. Conversely, rejection of the resolution would undoubtedly escalate simmering tensions.



“Dissatisfaction and unrest among Palestinians would be acute…Concurrently, a US decision to exercise veto power at the Security Council would have disastrous consequence for American interests in the Arab world.” Foreign Policy Journal. The increase in construction of West Bank Jewish settlements has in fact sent a strong signal from Israel, currently under a hard-line Likud leadership, that it will stand in defiance of any such United Nations vote. The local peace process is going nowhere; lines have been drawn in the sand.

Both Israel and Palestinian authorities are out “in the world” lobbying support for that upcoming vote. For example, on August 14th, “Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas [traveled to meet] leaders of Bosnia-Herzegovina, a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, as Palestinians plan to bring a resolution on Palestinian statehood to the United Nations in September… Foreign Minister Sven Alkalaj told media in Sarajevo that Abbas was coming to lobby for support for Palestinian U.N. membership but that Bosnia still has not made up its mind… Bosnia's Muslims and Catholic Croats may side with the Palestinians while the Serbs are likely to support Israel.” Huffington Post, August 15th. Or this bipartisan effort from some members of our Congress: “More than 80 members of the House are visiting Israel this month as guests of the American Israel Education Foundation, a charity affiliated with the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee. It is the largest number of members of Congress ever to make the trip during a single recess, according to the organizers.” New York Times, August 15th.

“Conventional wisdom suggests the Palestinians want to exceed the vote minimum in the General Assembly, thereby engaging American in a high-stakes game of diplomatic brinksmanship. However, this collision is likely to end in conflict rather than conciliation, and the Palestinians know it. On the streets of the West Bank and Gaza, talk is building of hundreds of thousands taking the streets in the ramp-up to the U.N. vote, supported by millions of fellow Arabs, in a powerful demonstration of cultural solidarity and frustration with Israel’s perceived intransigence… This should come as little surprise. Palestinian attitudes and expectations for the September vote remain upbeat, if tempered by the political reality of United States’ ultimate determination of the resolution’s achievement.” Foreign Policy Journal.

There is little doubt, given the social media-linked protests of late, that there will be seismic reactions to any negative vote against Palestine’s statehood, at any level. With America’s credibility on the line – her very ability to negotiate throughout the Muslim world where American military struggles abound – what transpires in the next few months may set the tone for years. With domestic pressures, fueled by budgetary realities, to withdraw from Afghanistan and to finalize the last vestiges of the American presence in Iraq, a growing hostility at America’s position on Palestine could make such decisions increasingly difficult, forcing more military and fewer diplomatic efforts in the future.

I’m Peter Dekom, and all of these decisions have severe political and economic consequences for each and every one of us.



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