Wimpy Competitors

A long time ago, and seemingly oh-so-far away, the United States of America had the highest high school and college graduation rate in the world. But that was 1970, and today, we have ignominiously fallen to 21^st in high school graduation, 15^th in college completion… and we’re still dropping. If it were just the rising cost of education combined with the recession, perhaps that would be an explanation, but a number of countries who’ve been hit harder by impaired economic times – like Ireland and Italy – seem to have passed us anyway.

Here is the hard truth, from CNN (November 3^rd) based on US Census statistics:

Twenty-five percent of Americans that start high school do not graduate. Entering the workforce without a high school diploma means an unemployment rate three-and-a-half times the rate of those with a college degree. And for those who do find full-time work, they on average earn less than half of what a college graduate makes each year.

Thirty percent of high school graduates do not go on to college right after graduation. In the workforce, a high school graduate earns on average more than someone without a diploma, but still only 60 percent of what a college graduate makes each year.

Forty-three percent of students who start college will not graduate in 6 years. Women graduate at a six-percent-higher rate than men within six years, and outnumber men in higher education by a ratio of 3-to-2.

In the economically disadvantaged classes, the numbers are even worse: “Only 7 of 10 ninth graders today will get high school diplomas. A decade after the No Child Left Behind law mandated efforts to reduce the racial gap, about 80 percent of white and Asian students graduate from high school, compared with only 55 percent of blacks and Hispanics.” New York Times, January 25^th.

Writing for the Times, Henry M. Levin, a professor of economics and education at Teachers College, Columbia University and Cecilia E. Rouse, a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University (a former member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2009 to 2011) observe: “While our economic competitors are rapidly increasing graduation rates at both levels, we continue to fall behind. Educated workers are the basis of economic growth — they are especially critical as sources of innovation and productivity given the pace and nature of technological progress.

“If we could reduce the current number of dropouts by just half, we would yield almost 700,000 new graduates a year, and it would more than pay for itself. Studies show that the typical high school graduate will obtain higher employment and earnings — an astonishing 50 percent to 100 percent increase in lifetime income — and will be less likely to draw on public money for health care and welfare and less likely to be involved in the criminal justice system. Further, because of the increased income, the typical graduate will contribute more in tax revenues over his lifetime than if he’d dropped out.

“When the costs of investment to produce a new graduate are taken into account, there is a return of $1.45 to $3.55 for every dollar of investment, depending upon the educational intervention strategy. Under this estimate, each new graduate confers a net benefit to taxpayers of about $127,000 over the graduate’s lifetime. This is a benefit to the public of nearly $90 billion for each year of success in reducing the number of high school dropouts by 700,000 — or something close to $1 trillion after 11 years. That’s real money — and a reason both liberals and conservatives should rally behind dropout prevention as an element of economic recovery, leaving aside the ethical dimensions of educating our young people.”

In the end, I have never heard a coherent argument by anyone anywhere that education really needs to be cut because we simply can’t afford it. If we continue to spend the level of dollars on our military, and our children produce less and less, what exactly is all that military might going to defend? How will those low-skilled adults ever afford the taxes that they would have to pay to continue spending well-over 40% of the world’s military budget, a number that even includes every budgetary cut that has been proposed to contain our military spending?

I’m Peter Dekom, and I wonder what is going to keep this great nation from cutting the very support structures that keep us great?