Isolation and Iran

I’ve blogged about the differences between Shiites and Sunnis – the former believes the Qur’an is a mystical book that only the most supreme religious leaders can interpret; the latter believe that it is the literal word of God that must be read by all devote Muslims – but it is hard to convey the hatred between these two sides of Islam that has raged since just after the death of the Prophet Mohammad in 632 AD. While the vast majority of Muslims (85%) are Sunnis, the largest concentrations of Shiites and their affiliates are in Iran (90%+ Shiite) and Iraq (60%). Iran has funded groups that are violently opposed to the United States, Israel and the West – from their surrogates Hezbollah (Shiite) to the mostly Sunni Hamas that govern in Gaza under a loose Palestinian coalition with the more moderate Fatah. By defying the West and taking very hostile positions to anything in the region embraced by the West, Iran hoped to overcome the fact that it represents the Sunni-hated Shiite faith to become the Middle East superpower.

Iran has embraced what they refer to as the “axis of resistance,” joined by Syria’s Assad regime, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement and Hezbollah… and generally generating the sympathy of the Shiite majority in Iraq. On the other side of the equation, proud Sunni traditionalists, heavily funded by Saudi Arabia (which sits across the Persian Gulf from Iran), have pushed back against this Iranian Shiite influence. Even the fundamentalist Sunni Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan are strongly anti-Shiite, and hence anti-Iran. Recent rapprochements from the newly-elected President of Egypt (mostly Sunni) to Saudi Arabia have begun to tilt the political spectrum away from what had once been a growing Iranian power in the region.

Sanctions against Iran, imposed by the West because of their seemingly weapons-oriented nuclear fuel enrichment program, have really brought the standard of living down dramatically inside Iran. With ships unable to get needed transportation insurance and vendors unable to generate traditional pay-on-delivery structures operated by the international banking community because of the sanctions, shortages and high commodity prices are the rule in Iran. Folks switched out of beef and lamb consumption by substantial margins, because of the cost of feed grains, and changed to chicken. But when chicken feed couldn’t get paid for, even that commodity surged in price by 40%. Though Iran is rich in oil, its lacks refining capacity and has to import gasoline… Yup, another shortage.

Iranians are restive, and the Ayatollahs are coming down hard on President Ahmadinejad, threatening to abolish the office of the Presidency entirely. The Revolutionary Guard is clamping down on anyone protesting the harsh conditions, but unhappiness reigns supreme. Indeed, Ahmadinejad has all but painted targets on his nuclear refining sites, effectively begging Israel and/or the United States to attack. He needs something to rally support for his leadership, and probably nothing short of such an attack has the remotest chance of doing the trick.

Which brings me to Syria and the possibility that an overthrow of a tiny minority sect, the Alawites (an off-shoot of the Shiite movement, who represent a mere 7% of the entire population), and the turning over of control to the huge Sunni majority (75%; 10% are Christians, by the way) would end Iran’s alliance with this nation. The Assad family and most of the higher-ups in the military and business are Alawites. Like the impact of the toppling of the Saddam Hussein regime (which represented Iraq’s 20% minority Sunnis) shifting control of Iraq to the Shiites, removal of the Assad family would hand over control of Syria to the pretty anti-Shiite Sunni majority.

The Free Syrian Army recently took 48 Iranians (who Tehran claims are “pilgrims” to religious shrines) hostage and is interrogating them to see if any are affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard that has purportedly lent military aide to Assad. The FSA suspect that they were on a recon mission against the uprising. If they are “infiltrators,” they will be judged harshly and if they are not, the FSA will use intermediaries to negotiate their return to Iran (they refuse to deal directly with Iran, whom they consider to be the enemy). Three of those hostages were reportedly killed in an artillery barrage from government forces.

On August 7^th, Tehran sent Saeed Jalili, its most senior nuclear negotiator, secretary to its Supreme National Security Council and a personal representative to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to Syria. Jalili “told reporters that Iran continued to support the Assad government, which contends the uprising is the work of foreign-backed terrorist gangs. Iranian state news media said Mr. Jalili, who is also, had also come to Damascus to secure the release of the Iranians. How he intended to achieve that goal was not clear.” New York Times, August 7^th. Iran claims that the uprising in Syria is the product of U.S. and Western meddling and has vowed to hold the United States and Israel responsible for any harm that might befall the hostages.

But is Iran on the losing end of a massive regional realignment? If you just look at a map of the Middle East (Iran is the big green blob on the right, separated from pink Syria by blue Iraq), you can see why the loss of Syria would be devastating to Iran’s regional ambitions. It not only borders its sworn enemy Israel, but it provides access to the Mediterranean, Hezbollah-governed Lebanon and easier continued access to Hamas/Islamic Jihadists in Gaza. Shiite-led Iraq, thanks to U.S. efforts that eliminated Saddam’s Sunni rule, is very friendly with Iran these days. Turkey (primarily Sunni and represented by the big yellow blob at the top of the map) is also seeking a growing power in the Middle East and is none-too-friendly with Iran. Syria breaks the Iranian line to the sea if it falls. And if this erosion in Syria further isolates Iran, how long before the rumblings move into that country to its own uprisings?

I’m Peter Dekom, and the world is nothing but roiling seas and shifting sands.