Dry Desperation

We’d like to think that the Syrian rebellion was a product of people yearning to be free, craving a new democracy and inspired by their Arab Spring brethren in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. While the results of the Arab Spring may have suggested a path, the overwhelming motivator is that lesson history rich and powerful people never seem to learn: when enough people have nothing left to lose, expect a surging demand for regime change, violent if nothing else will work. In fact the real force behind the move to topple the al-Assad incumbency was most probably the result of climate change and the government’s reaction to it.

“One of the reasons that so many people decided they were prepared to risk death to oppose President Bashar al-Assad, were the consequences of the worst drought in Syria's recorded history, between 2006 and 2011. .. According to the UN, it wiped out the livelihoods of 800,000 people. In north-east Syria, 85% of the livestock died…The regime made matters worse by subsidising big land owners who intensively farmed thirsty crops like cotton and wheat. North-east Syria is now a stronghold of the rebellion.” BBC.uk.co, December 9^th.  The loss of family assets accumulated over decades if not centuries caused one of the most massive displacements in the region’s history.

“Half a decade of drought has forced the migration of 1.5 million rural residences to Syria’s urban centers, as the regime has paid little attention to water and agricultural issues, and this grossly overlooked climate situation has and will continue to help shape the outcome of the conflict and the prospects for future stability.

“According to a recent study released by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the ‘unparalleled’ drought in Syria … led to [this] mass migration of … people to urban centers, while the regime of Bashar al-Assad systematically ignored urgent issues of water access and sustainable agriculture, leading to the complete destruction of a large number of farming communities and placing immense stress on urban centers.” OilPrice.com, August 20^th.

“Ancient irrigation systems have collapsed, underground water sources have run dry and hundreds of villages have been abandoned as farmlands turn to cracked desert and grazing animals die off. Sandstorms have become far more common, and vast tent cities of dispossessed farmers and their families have risen up around the larger towns and cities of Syria and Iraq.” New York Times, October 13, 2010, written before the insurrection. Anger, frustration and nothing left to lose.

Sure there were activists ready to foment their own Arab Spring, students and intellectuals, nationalists and religious zealots, all seizing on this opportunity to force change. But without the desperation of starving farmers with no hope and no future, this movement would have died in the sandy soil of north-eastern Syria. After all, where would the rebellion have recruited the numbers of fighters needed to usurp the al-Assad government if folks were content on productive farms or well-employed in urban centers?

But none of this augurs well for the new Syria, beset with factionalism and dire economic needs, right smack in the middle of the one of the most troubled regions in the Middle East. Unlike fractured Somalia, isolated in a dry African desert, Syria is surrounded by important powers embroiled in conflicts and violent regional politics. There are Iran’s Shiite-dominated cronies (read: Assad’s buddies) on two sides: Lebanon with its Hezbollah government is on one side and Iraq on the other. Israel looms on the southern border. And two Sunni powers, Turkey and Jordan, make up the balance. With nearby Egypt (Syria and Egypt were once united into a single nation – the United Arab Republic – from 1958 through 1961) and Iran in the ‘hood, Syria’s politics are anything but internal.

To make matters much worse, Syria is 74% Sunni but its leadership is Alawite – a Shiite affiliate with only 13% of the population. These religious factions are traditional enemies. Iran is dedicated to preserve Shiite power, with men and arms to the al-Assad regime. Russia seems to share that commitment for other reasons including pressure from the Russian Orthodox Church seeking to protect the Christian minority (through a deal with the Assad government) and to preserve the massive Russian trade and economic holdings with the incumbent regime. But even Russia sees the writing on the wall. In December 14^th, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, “Unfortunately, we cannot rule out the victory of the Syrian opposition.” Europe and now the United States have recognized Syria’s rebels (through their National Coalition) as the nation’s only legitimate government.

Deadly Sarin gas is now loaded into active bombs, ready for use by the Assad-controlled Air Force. Al-Qaeda forces, Kurdish separatists, passionate students and intellectuals, angry farmers, military defectors and Muslim fundamentalists have joined forces to oppose the government. And if they win, what?

Does this break the country apart into regional war lords and extreme factions? Is the result civil war? Does the Syrian territory remain intact or do sections (like the Kurdish border region as I have recently blogged) break off to join their brethren on the other side? Do the regional players continue to launch their surrogates to battle within Syria, fomenting instability in an already-volatile region? And how does the world help those who lost everything in the drought achieve economic stability in a world of massive financial impairment?

I’m Peter Dekom, and the pages of Syria’s history seem destined to drip blood for a very long time.