In the last few weeks, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has disavowed the Armistice that halted the Korean War over half a century ago, declared a readiness to launch a pre-emptive strike (including nuclear warheads delivered by long-range missiles) against the South and the United States, resumed globally-condemned nuclear testing and issued rather provocative online videos showing North Korean weapons system decimating U.S. forces and blowing up the American Capitol and White House. Even his normally-staunch supporters from the Peoples Republic of China have supported additional UN sanctions against this rogue dictator. The U.S. and South Korean response has been to stage joint military exercises, which in turn has escalated Kim’s vitriol and threat-posture.
Yet for all the nastiness pouring from the North, does anyone really believe that North Korean forces will soon pour through the demilitarized zone, crashing towards Seoul a scant 25 miles away? Do we really believe that Kim will launch missiles with nuclear weapons against either the South or, assuming his missiles even have this capability, against the United States? The North’s Taepodong-2 rocket has a theoretical range that could reach as far as Australia, parts of the Middle East and even Alaska. More recent tests of upgraded rockets, however, seem to suggest that even the US mainland might be reachable by Korea’s rockets. Okay, it’s pretty theoretical, and even under their own “specs,” their longest range rocket isn’t really capable of delivering much of a payload… yet.
American missile defense systems would probably stop such an attack, and clearly, the American nuclear arsenal is such that it would only take minutes for the North to cease to exist, but will this even be a reality? Exchanges of cyber-attacks have crashed television networks and communications systems on both sides of the 38th parallel separating North from South. A cyber- attack seemingly coming from the North disrupted operations at several broadcasters and six banks in the South, slamming into approximately 32,000 computers. Tensions are rising fast.
The North’s KCNA state news agency issued a statement on March 25th informing the world that North Korea has placed its armed forces on high alert over the above-noted joint US-Seoul military exercises: “From this moment, the Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army will be putting in combat duty posture No 1 all field artillery units including long-range artillery units and strategic rocket units that will target all enemy objects in US invasionary bases on its mainland, Hawaii and Guam.” Is Kim building the stakes to draw concessions in some unscheduled future peace conference? Does he really expect to launch? Or is this mass of threats and actions just aimed for local consumption?
“While many observers dismiss the rhetoric as bluster, others warn of ‘the tyranny of low expectations’ when it comes to understanding North Korea, because there have been a number of serious regional confrontations… If you follow North Korean media you constantly see bellicose language directed against the US and South Korea and occasionally Japan is thrown in there, and it’s hard to know what to take seriously. But then when you look at occasions where something really did happen, such as the artillery attack on a South Korean island in 2010, you see there were very clear warnings," Professor John Delury at South Korea's Yonsei university told the BBC.” BBC.co.uk, March 8th. If a nuclear attack would be suicidal, some argue, a clash with the South using conventional weapons may not be out of the question. Northern forces could be poised to release an overwhelming force across the DMZ as they did in June of 1950.
There have been myriad incidents over the years, and the number of recent clashes shows how volatile this region is. Yet as a few escapees have testified, life in the North is abysmal. Prison camps and slave labor are epidemic, and notwithstanding the strange images of former NBA star Dennis Rodman with leader-Kim, there is little joy in this dark, heavily polluted and backwards land. Malnourishment and out-and-out starvation seem to be everywhere.
On March 28-9th, the North raised its troop and missile alert level even higher, and Kim told the world that it was time to “settle accounts” with the United States. Photoshop-enhanced pictures of North Korean landing craft practicing beach landings flooded the Web. As U.S. stealth bombers joined the joint military exercises with South Korea, the American Secretary of Defense responded: “The North Koreans have to understand that what they’re doing is very dangerous… We must make clear that these provocations by the North are taken by us very seriously and we'll respond to that.” Russian and Chinese officials expressed extreme concern over the escalating tensions. The Russians particularly believe that flying such U.S. bombers as part of such joint exercises was unnecessarily provocative.
Escalation on March 30th from the North’s official KCNA New Agency: “From this time on, the North-South relations will be entering the state of war and all issues raised between the North and the South will be handled accordingly.” Is a preemptive attack imminent? A show for the locals? Or is this merely an attempt to enhance the North’s position in bargaining with the West (particularly the U.S.) for food and other economic aid, promises of respecting their national security, even diplomatic recognition or perhaps allowing them to continue with their military experiments? Is this a ploy to force the West and Japan back to the bargaining table? The fact that trucks are still carrying components into the a special economic zone about five miles north of the DMZ for assembly and back into the South – a source of millions hard U.S. dollars (paid in cash) – without pause should tell you something. Such monies support Kim’s rather lavish lifestyle.
Slowly, word of a better life “out there” seems to have filtered into the North Korean people. So to justify the harshness and obvious repression, perhaps the Kim Jong-un has built up visions of an external threat to bear the blame for the misery of his regime. His call to arms seems intended to resonate with the locals’ patriotism, invoking their sacrifice, and “scaring” Japan and the West into negotiations. But nothing shows how bleak life is for those in the North than a satellite photograph of the entire Korean Peninsula (above). It’s a black and white reality.
I’m Peter Dekom, and the cruelty of repressive regimes who believe that they have a right to decimate the lives of millions never ceases to amaze me.
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