Softening the Hard Line

Most Iranians believe that their country’s initiating a nuclear attack on anybody is simply a Western distorted fantasy, believing that their nation’s nuclear program is fully and solely dedicated to peaceful power generation as the official policy states. That Iranian capacity provides centrifuges and capacity that exceeds such peaceful goals simply escapes the mindset of most in this nation. A few, who believe that Iran is and should be able to be a general nuclear power (with military capacity), ask the question of why the United States, itself a nuclear power along with many Western states, wound up as the arbiter of which countries can have nukes and which cannot.

These uber-hardliners believe that they need a powerful nuclear deterrent against a nuclear-armed United States (and its allies) known to interfere in regional politics with force, not to mention a nuclear-armed Israel that seems to live with a constant need to rattle sabers at Iran. With the Obama administration now surrounded by an all-Republican-dominated Congress – with powerful mandates from the religious right to follow Israel’s lead in the region – the American ability to navigate in this perilous nuclear-arms reduction discussion with Iran has now become severely limited.

Still, defusing Iran’s nuclear military capacity remains a top priority for just about every segment of the American body politic. But the underlying gamesmanship is contradictory and confusing. Iran has been generating bits and pieces of positive propaganda directed at the U.S., trying to humanize the face of Iran, lifting the issues out of the political battle between regimes. For example, Anthony Bourdain was allowed to bring a film crew into Iran as part of his CNN “Part’s Unknown” travel series, a folksy exploration of people, places and food. They’ve leaked that they might allow their ally Russia to store some of their most “weapons-appropriate” nuclear materials to move the process along.

On the other hand, there are hardliners who are putting pressure both on the elected and the more-important religious hierarchy to hold the line, to defy the United States (even though there are other nations involved in the talks, this is viewed as a U.S.-directed effort, with Israel pulling more than a few American political strings). Even as Iran lives under the Bush-administration moniker as part of the “Axis of Evil,” to the Iranian government (particularly the religious powers that really runs the country), the United States remains one of the greatest forces of evil on earth. Trying to find balance and at least a nuclear détente in this environment is difficult, to say the least.

One harsh reality remains: the Iranian economy is in shambles. The international sanctions placed on Iran seem to be taking their toll, and the people are weary of the negative impact on growth and the quality of their lives. The currency is weak, proper foodstuffs are expensive and in short supply, and the impact on what can and cannot be imported or exported plus the limitation on the Iranian insurance and financial sectors are decimating the Iranian economy. So the moderate elected Hassan Rouhani administration must deal with religious powers that simply despise the United States and anything that the U.S. wants or touches… against the clamoring electorate that is tired of the economic pain brought on by the sanctions.

“Washington and Tehran cut diplomatic relations after students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran 35 years ago… holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days… [An event that is celebrated in Tehran annually] ‘The event this year is imbued with a spirit of antagonism toward arrogant powers. It calls for even louder slogans against America,’ hardline cleric Alireza Panahian told a crowd gathered outside the former U.S. embassy compound in Tehran, called the ‘Den of Spies’ in Iran since the seizure… ‘We will never come to terms with savage Americans, even if we have chosen to negotiate. Those cannibals, the Americans, shouldn't jump to any conclusion with these talks,’ he said to chants of ‘Death to America" and ‘Death to Israel,’ state television reported.” Reuters, November 5^th. Whew!

The Rouhani regime is thus on a very short leash. “According to one official, hardline loyalists of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have reached a compromise with supporters of the pragmatic president: Tehran should try to win relief from international sanctions by resolving the nuclear dispute, but not normalize ties with ‘the Great Satan’ [The U.S.]

“However, some allies of President Hassan Rouhani may not have given up on re-establishing relations with Washington, which were severed after the 1979 Islamic Revolution… Hostility to the United States has always been a rallying point for the clerical establishment, despite the decades of political isolation and sanctions-related economic hardship that estrangement has cost. Take this bogeyman away, and the ideological glue that holds together the faction-ridden leadership would weaken, analysts say.” Reuters. Can we accomplished at least a stoppage of that aspect of Iran’s nuclear program that has weapons-grade fissionable material? Maybe, but it doesn’t take much to pull these discussions off track.

I’m Peter Dekom, and our own political power struggles don’t seem to stop the rest of the world from pushing and pulling at the global power issues that should really concern us all.