Strange Alliances

As the United States continues to negotiate with Iran over the latter’s nuclear program as part of a six nation coalition, the Likud/Republican coalition is equally pressing against reaching a deal. Just about anything that the Obama administration proposes is likely to be rejected by the GOP-led Congress… because his administration proposed it. But right now, as my March 19^th blog (Arrogant Isolationism) clearly documents, Israel is among the world’s least popular countries and the fact that the anti-Iran-treaty effort in the United States has been heavily fomented by Israel itself, clearly places the United States on the wrong side of the vast majority of global sentiments.

There are some interesting signs that the Iranians are actually taking this process seriously. “A coterie of Iran’s hard-line Shiite Muslim clerics and Revolutionary Guards commanders is usually vocal on the subject of the Iranian nuclear program, loudly proclaiming the country’s right to pursue its interests and angrily denouncing the United States… But as the United States and Iran prepare to restart nuclear talks this week, the hard-liners have been keeping a low profile.

“‘They have been remarkably quiet,’ said Nader Karimi Joni, a former member of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary group… Their silence is a result of state policies intended by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to seriously try to find a solution through negotiations. Ayatollah Khamenei has largely supported the nuclear talks and the Iranian negotiators, whom he has called ‘good and caring people, who work for the country.’” New York Times, March 23^rd. Meanwhile, the “other side” of the table is raising the stakes.

France is playing hardball with the Iranian negotiators, to Israel’s delight, but the talks may actually be moving into “close mode.” If the treaty becomes real, the Obama administration is likely to sign as well and adhere to the executed treaty. The Republicans can scream like stuck pigs, try to extend the sanctions and pledge “when we win in 2016,” we will deny the treaty (a threat they made in writing as 47 GOP Senators director wrote Iran’s religious leadership), but that’s 2016 or ???. Israel’s re-powered Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has failed to provide any viable solutions. After decade of no movement from Iran under severe sanctions, Netanyahu claims that sanctions continue to be the right track, threatening under his breath that Israel will do anything (military threat) to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

So let’s say that the treaty is signed, and the sanctions dropped by 5 out of the 6 treaty signatories in the coalition. But the United States refuses to sign or follows the GOP lead and shuts down our involvement. China, Russia and the European negotiators cold easily end the sanctions, even if the U.S. does not. Iran would shrug, since the mass of the negotiator-nations are supplying her with all the imports she needs. You can play with the variables, but if the world endorses the end of sanctions, and the United States accepts the pressure from Israel and refuses to go along (now or in the future), we only increase our own isolation from the global political scene and fall even lower in overall stature and effective power.

Meanwhile back at the ranch… Syria and Iraq… where Iraqi troops have been unable to thwart the ISIS threat without the rather significant intervention of Iranian regulars, military commanders, supply support and, most of all, Iran’s infamous militias on their side. Effectively, Iran and the United States are on the same side of a battle to expunge murderous ISIS from the region. But there a big gooey fly in the ointment well beyond the discomfort factor of two enemies working on the same side.

Between drought from global warming (which has destroyed Sunni farms and the lives of farmers in huge numbers) and the persecution of Sunnis by the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government as well as the minority-Shiite Assad government in Syria, there is hateful ambivalence among a whole host of Sunnis currently in ISIS territory. ISIS brutal wrath has focused on almost every religious group except fundamentalist Sunnis, their core constituency. And those Sunnis fear living under a Shiite thumb far more than they do under their Sunni “protectors.”

So as the United States looks to Iraq as the major source of the boots on the ground Americans refuse to supply, to so many Sunnis living under ISIS, the last “rescuers” they want to see are Shiites, their hated enemy. As Iraq, with strong and very direct Iranian support, closes in on ISIS-held lands, contrary to most American’s beliefs, a vast horde of people living under ISIS rule don’t look at such efforts as positive or liberating.

The closest Sunni power, Turkey, has not done much to contain ISIS, particularly because ISIS is battling Kurdish forces. Kurdish separatists have been fighting, on and off, for their own state carved in part out of Turkey’s hide. While the local Sunnis remember that it was the United States that imposed majority (read: Shiite) rule in Iraq that led rather directly to their persecution (one of ISIS’ justifications for their very existence), they would prefer Western intervention to the hated Shiites hell bent on “liberation” sitting on their doorstep. But because the United States appears to be the enabler of Israel’s policies including more settlements on the Palestinian West Bank – a strong sign that Israel will never accept a two state partition (reinforced by Netanyahu’s pre-election speech, which he has tried to withdraw) – the level of distrust that is directed at us is still incalculable.

What you have is rather profound regional instability. Deep polarization between Shiite and Sunni factions. Increasing mistrust of Americans and American policies, opening the door to “other” global powers to build a new power-base further to reduce American influence. A right wing Israeli government that has painted itself into an unsustainable corner. What you have is an ignorant Congressional majority that is further exacerbating regional instability, with an added failure of most Americans to understand the exploding schisms in the Middle East, many of which were old, nearly-healed wounds, that American intervention reopened with disastrous consequences. We have the largest military in the world, led by inexperienced, legislative representatives long on opinions but woefully short on facts. Their Congressional “handlers” are playing them like violins. When will facts become popular with our elected representatives? Ever?

I’m Peter Dekom, and if only our elected representatives could actually live and operate in the world as it really is, what a difference that could contribute to our long-term growth and prosperity.