The New Nile-ists

The Arab Spring took down many governments, Egypt included. For the first time since the old monarchy, an elected president without a blessing from the military took power in that land of the pyramids. But President Mohammad’s Morsi’s Islamist roots incented the military to take him down, charge him with numerous crimes and impose the all-too-familiar military dictatorship at Egypt’s helm. A crackdown on all forms of Islamist extremism followed, with a fairly cavalier “shoot first and ask questions later” attitude across the land.

A recent example: a group of picnicking tourists were machine-gunned in mid-September by an Egyptian military Apache helicopter, mistaking the innocents for a gathering of rebel Islamists: “Then the helicopter opened fire, killing at least a dozen people — including at least two Mexicans — while wounding a tourist police officer and at least nine others.

“Some were gunned down as they tried to flee toward the top of a nearby sand dune, said Essam Monem, a resident of the area who arrived that night and saw the bodies sprawled in the sand… The helicopter crew had mistaken the lunching tourists for a camp of Islamist militants operating in the area, the Interior Ministry said in a statement Monday. The error killed more tourists than any terrorist attack in recent years, raising questions about both the competence of Egypt’s security forces and the prevalence of the militants they hunting.” New York Times, September 14^th.

With ISIS and its ilk operating east and west of Egypt, military “President” Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is pretty much on red alert from all the regional enemies with Egypt as one of the many territories on their near-term conquest list. The secular military dictatorship in Egypt is a rather clear target on the ISIS hit list. El-Sisi is clearly at war with ISIS and all the Islamists in his country. His trigger happy soldiers, fully familiar with the fate that awaits conquered fighters, are ready to defend the homeland, sort of. But Egypt is not an oil-rich nation, waddling in cash. Mostly, it’s empty desert with a thin strip of productive land on the banks of the Nile. Egypt’s habitable land is over-crowded and poor, dirt poor.

“According to the World Bank, Upper Egypt - that green band of territory from a point to the south of Cairo down to the Sudanese border - is home to 40% of the country's population, but accounts for 60% of those living in poverty and 80% of those living in severe poverty. A third of the population is under 30, and about half of these young people are unemployed.” BBC.com, September 16^th. Neighboring Libya is a land of petroleum wealth and extreme conflict. ISIS and other extremists battle moderates and secularists as refugees-turned-migrants-to-Europe flee for their lives.

But for some of those without incomes, mired in Egypt’s hopeless poverty, the risk of crossing into Libya for those oil jobs is worth facing almost certain death if captured by ISIS operatives. “Libya has been a destination for Egypt's migrant workers since the oil boom of the 1970s, and is likely to remain so until living standards improve - despite the increasing dangers of the journey. BBC.com. And much of that smuggling of oil workers occurs through the western Egyptian oasis of Siwa en route to the Libyan oil town of Jaghbub.

“Used by trading caravans for centuries, Siwa is accustomed to people passing through. Merchants, pilgrims and armies have all taken advantage of its fresh water supply, exquisite fruits and the shade of thick palm groves as they traverse one of Africa's harshest environments. The most famous visitor was Alexander the Great who came to the oasis in the 4th Century BC to consult the Oracle of Amun.

“But a new type of visitor began to be seen more frequently after the political upheavals in Libya in 2011. The turmoil made it harder to cross the border at Sallum, on the Mediterranean coast, so Siwa - just 60km (40 miles) from the frontier - became the last stop for Egyptians leaving their homes in search of better-paid work, in Libya's oil industry for example.

“Despite government warnings about instability in Libya, and a rising death toll of Egyptian nationals there, many are still keen to make the journey - which is a damning indictment of living conditions in many parts of rural Egypt. At the end of 2013, two years after Muammar Gaddafi's death, it was estimated that there were still between 700,000 and 1.5 million Egyptian workers in Libya.” BBC.com. And these Egyptians going into harm’s way are a continuing stream, despite the growing risks.

Saudis fear the Sunni extremist ISIS from the North and Shiite Yemeni Houthis from the south. Assad’s Syria is under assault from ISIS and Syrian rebels. Israel and Palestine are far, far from any two-state solution. Russian soldiers and munitions are making their way to the Damascus regime. Lebanon watches warily as Iran’s local surrogate Hezbollah prepares a defense from what seems to be an inevitable attack by ISIS. Iran is bolstering its ally Iraq, which has lost major territory to a seemingly unstoppable ISIS juggernaut. Jordan is mired in the middle as the other regional monarchs also quiver in fear. Erdogan’s Turkey is using the ISIS turmoil to decimate its dissident Kurds… and U.S./NATO polices have not recaptured major ISIS holdings or stemmed its rolling malevolence.

This complexity is not susceptible to simplistic analysis or to the slogan-driven/jingoistic “solutions” that drip from the mouths of under-informed, under-prepared American presidential candidates. They are precisely the kinds of fools who led us into two crushing military defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan. While there is a clear rejection of “Washington politicians” roiling across the land, the last thing we need is dilettantes swatting the wasps’ nests in this Middle Eastern quagmire, making the world infinitely more dangerous for Americans everywhere. What we need are experts, unfiltered intelligence and raw pragmatism to work solutions.

I’m Peter Dekom, and stupid, ill-formed words leading to danger-creating policies are the last things this country needs to make us safer.