Looking Over Her Shoulder

Germany’s parliamentary elections are over. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats won taking first place with about a third of the available seats. The Social Democrats struggled to produce just shy of 21%, coming up a distant second. Sunday’s vote [9/24] continues Angela Merkel’s reign as Chancellor.

Merkel will be one of the democratic world’s longest chief executives, extending her hold as Germany’s Chancellor that began back in 2005. The German economy is strong, and with Brexit, that leaves two recently-elected/reelected leaders of major powers – France (Emmanuel Macron) and Germany (Merkel) – as Europe’s clear new power brokers. With yet another victory, given Donald Trump’s plunging international credibility, Merkel has solidified her increasingly-acknowledged role as the leader of the free world. The world has never, in recorded history, held a German leader in such high esteem… even long-departed and much revered Otto von Bismarck has to be yielding to her ascension… notwithstanding Germany’s post-WWII reluctance to assume that leadership role (Hitler is still a national humiliation).

So what could be wrong? Why isn’t this mega-superstar politician smiling? The little chart to her right (Bloomberg) explains it all. Merkel’s party lost 8.5% of its seats in the Bundestag. That’s bad. The two leading parties both lost ground. But the party that gained the most ground – the Alternative for Germany (AfD) – is a populist, anti-immigrant right wing nationalist party with strong support from neo-Nazis and white supremacists.

Sound familiar? Except in the United States, this nationalist movement elected a President. In Germany, it just makes folks nervous. And in a nation that engaged in some of the worst genocide in history, the fact that the right wing is rising again makes folks very nervous. This erosion of the established political parties raises some very serious questions above Angela Merkel’s ability to govern and implement her policies.

“In a country that kept the far right restricted to the political sidelines for more than half a century [Germany], the rise of [AfD] marked a watershed moment on Sunday, according to first projections that showed the party winning more than 13 percent of the vote… The AfD won’t be in a position to drive a legislative agenda, but Sunday’s vote probably will give it something the far right had always been denied: parliamentary legitimacy on a national level.

“‘Once a party gains access to Parliament, chances become much lower that it will simply disappear again,’ said Tarik Abou-Chadi, a comparative politics researcher at Humboldt University in Berlin. ‘The election could remove the social stigma which has hampered other far-right parties in the past.’

“With seats in the Bundestag, the AfD will be eligible to receive more taxpayer funding. As the only anti-immigration party in a mostly consensus-based national parliament, the AfD can also hope to further sharpen its profile as an alternative to Chancellor Angela Merkel… ‘We will chase Ms. Merkel,’ AfD co-leader Alexander Gauland said after first projections Sunday showed big gains for the far right. His party was determined to ‘claim back our country and people,’ he said.” Washington Post, September 24^th.

Now called upon to create a ruling coalition, Merkel’s growing global luster is looking weaker and rusty within her own country. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), with 10.6% of the vote, is a natural coalition partner for Merkel’s Christian Democrats… but not enough to allow them alone to top off the coalition.

“‘The whole world might be turning to Merkel for leadership, but Sunday’s election could ultimately end up being a Pyrrhic victory,’ said Hasche, who predicts a stormy era ahead for Merkel after her Christian Democrats plunged from 42% support in 2013 to 33% Sunday — the party’s worst showing since 1949.

“[Merkel’s] center-right conservatives, who have dominated postwar politics, lost more than a million voters to the upstart Alternative for Germany party. The anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party won 12.6% of the vote Sunday by campaigning hard against the 1 million refugees who poured into the country in 2015 after Merkel opened the floodgates to refugees and migrants from the Middle East and elsewhere.

“The Christian Democrats also lost their aura of invincibility, a disconcerting development for countless thousands of party soldiers across the country who hold elected office. Their careers are suddenly looking vulnerable as a result of what some consider to have been a reckless decision to allow in so many refugees from Syria, Iraq and other trouble spots.” Los Angeles Times, September 26^th. Turning inwards and toward nationalism has never served countries that prioritize these goals well. The “us vs them” philosophy tends to lead to conflict, a withdrawal of support for the needy and an increase in polarization that truly threatens the viability of traditional democracy. It may be just shy of 13% of the Bundestag… but the AfD is now a legitimate political voice with a seat at the governing table… the first such extreme right wing party since Hitler.

I’m Peter Dekom, and there are plenty of new tea leaves to read, but the brew is tasting increasingly bitter.