Thursday, October 26, 2017

Fraudster, Huckster or Savvy Populist President


Donald Trump is touted as a smart businessman, one who grew his real-estate-driven financial empire by shrewd strategies, careful design, catchy branding, and clever financial structures. Donald’s father, Fred Trump, built a sizeable fortune – estimated at over $300 million at his death in 1999. The elder Trump had already supported his son with loans and investments by the time of his death, and while the Trump family has never made public the amount of Donald’s inheritance, experts suggest that the number could have been as much as $200 million. Popular mythology tells us how the Donald managed to leverage that inheritance and some underlying real estate holdings to a current estimated net worth of over $4 billion, a lot of money by anyone’s standards.
Because of his “billionaire” status, his base passionately believes he is a very smart, self-made businessman. They gloss over one of the largest collection of lawsuits by and against an American businessman and his privately-held companies. But as the August 20, 2015 Fortune Magazine states: “Trump’s net worth has grown about 300% to an estimated $4 billion since 1987, according to a report by the Associated Press. But the real estate mogul would have made even more money if he had just invested in index funds. The AP says that, if Trump had invested in an index fund in 1988, his net worth would be as much as $13 billion… The S&P 500 has grown 1,336% since 1988.”
Trump brags about how he put one over on a consortium of Hong Kong financiers, a group of high rollers he spent years courting. “‘I beat China all the time,’ Mr. Trump declared in a speech the day he announced his candidacy. ‘I own a big chunk of the Bank of America building at 1290 Avenue of the Americas that I got from China in a war. Very valuable.’” New York Times, 5/30/16. A little digging, and what is claimed as a major victory over these Chinese investors turns out to be a settlement that Trump was forced to accept when he lost a lawsuit he filed against these self-same investors, when he claimed they sold a massive parcel of Manhattan real estate out from under him without his consent at below market. The investors denied that he was not completely aware of the transaction, and the court sided with that Hong Kong group.
“[When] his Hong Kong partners sold the property without his support, Mr. Trump waged a bitter, long-shot legal battle against them. And far from winning his share of the Bank of America building, according to court documents, he had to settle for it after losing in court. In the end, Mr. Trump’s alliance and eventual rivalry with some of Hong Kong’s richest men proved to be a tale of Mr. Trump at the extremes. It showcased his unflagging confidence in his ability to turn a bad financial situation around. But it also underscored his willingness to destroy a fruitful relationship with aggressive litigation.
“Their partnership began in 1994, after the collapse of the real estate market left Mr. Trump deeply in debt. He could not afford to make the bank payments on a 77-acre swath of land near Lincoln Center known as Riverside South, let alone to develop the property…
“The judge ruled against him. Instead of receiving the cash he wanted, Mr. Trump had to accept a 30 percent share in the profits from the two Bank of America buildings, tied up in a partnership that is slated to last until 2044. But today, Mr. Trump counts that legal defeat as a victory.” NY Times.
I suspect a large number of Americans who bought real estate in the 1990s and held it for ten years or more made a lot of money. Almost any real estate. Buy low, sell high. Donald’s returns on investment were pretty modest when compared with other “self-made” entrepreneurs during the same period (since 1987): “Other billionaires’ net worths have beaten the stock market’s growth in that time. Bill Gates, for example, saw his grow increase 7,173% since 1988 to $80 billion. Warren Buffet’s wealth grew 2,612% in the same time period, to $67.8 billion.” Fortune. Donald made less. But as the lawsuit with his Hong Kong partners illustrates, Trump needed someone to blame for his obvious failure… his struggles to stave off bankruptcy in the early 1990s. Blame, an essential ingredient in the way The Donald has conducted his entire life.
Trump’s business failures are substantial. Trump dabbled in the short-haul airline business with the East Coast corridor Trump Shuttle (above right). According to the October 11, 2016 Time Magazine, “The high debt forced Trump to default on his loans, and ownership of the company was turned over to creditors. The Trump Shuttle ceased to exist in 1992 when it was merged into a new corporation, Shuttle Inc.”
Trump Vodka (above middle) and Trump Mortgage did no better, notwithstanding the Donald’s usual braggadocio. Despite his ownership of 28% of the relevant stock, as his Atlantic City casinos began to tank, eventually winding up in bankruptcy, the Donald distanced himself and claimed his only connection was the license to use his name on those businesses. Trump Magazine, founded in 2007, died a year and half later.
“In 2005, Trump opened the non-accredited, for-profit Trump University. [above left] In 2010, four students sued the university for ‘offering classes that amounted to extended ‘infomercials.’’ Following the suit, the ‘university’ changed its name to ‘The Trump Entrepreneur Initiative,’ before ending operations one year later. In 2013, the New York Attorney General sued Trump and the ‘university’ for $40 million for allegedly defrauding students.” Time Magazine. Trump claimed again that this was simply a licensing of his name and some of his materials, but his endorsements and “slogans” were all over that fake educational endeavor. Trump’s organization eventually settled with the plaintiffs, purportedly for a $25 million sum.
So it seems that Trump is not a particularly good businessman and given his disdain for reading books and sophisticated academic materials, he does not seem prepared for the complexities of governance. He certainly did not make a particularly good impression on his undergraduate faculty (Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania). As Donald Trump gained media notoriety, his marketing Professor William T. Kelley, who passed away in 1982, repeated to his friends and acquaintances that not only did young Trump think he knew it all without studying, but the Donald “was the dumbest goddamned student I ever had.”
Donald’s attraction to gimmicky solutions, often those most vulnerable to fraud (like Trump University), continues even as to his suggestions for healthcare reform. Take for example his notion of special healthcare “associations,” medical programs with limited benefits that were considered too bare to qualify under the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), often sold (before the ACA) to small businesses to provide minimal employee coverage.
Touting these programs as able to provide “great, great healthcare,” the President signed an executive order, effectively unilaterally amending the ACA to allow such programs to exist, exempting them from the minimum requirements otherwise imposed by the ACA. He didn’t mention the tendency of such programs to result in high default rates and out-and-out fraud. “In the executive order, issued on Oct. 12, Mr. Trump directed the Labor Department to expand access to the plans by making it easier for small businesses to band together and insure themselves or buy insurance as a large group.
“Large group plans and self-insured plans are subject to fewer federal and state requirements than individual or small group insurance. They are, for example, not required to provide ‘essential health benefits’ like mental health care and prescription drugs.
“But Mila Kofman, a former insurance superintendent in Maine who has done extensive research on association health plans, said they also often falsely claimed to be exempt from state insurance laws, as a way to explain how they could offer premiums lower than those charged by licensed insurance companies…
“But these health plans, created for small businesses, have a darker side: They have a long history of fraud and abuse that have left employers and employees with hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid medical bills… The problems are described in dozens of court cases and enforcement actions taken over more than a decade by federal and state officials who regulate the type of plans Mr. Trump is encouraging, known as association health plans… In many cases, the Labor Department said, it has targeted ‘unscrupulous promoters who sell the promise of inexpensive health benefit insurance, but default on their obligations.’ In several cases, it has found that people managing these health plans diverted premiums to their personal use.
“The department filed suit this year against an association health plan for 300 small employers in Washington State, asserting that its officers had mismanaged the plan’s assets and charged employers more than $3 million in excessive ‘administrative fees.’ Operators of the health plan violated their fiduciary duty by using its assets ‘in their own interest,’ rather than for the benefit of workers, the government said.
“Marc I. Machiz, who investigated insurance fraud as a Labor Department lawyer for more than 20 years, said the executive order was ‘summoning back demons from the deep… Fraudulent association health plans have left hundreds of thousands of people with unpaid claims… They operate in a regulatory never-never land between the Department of Labor and state insurance regulators.’” New York Times, October 21st.
So we are left with the question of “who is Donald Trump and why is his base so fiercely loyal?” He’s certainly not a good businessman, as his ample track record of failure and underperformance illustrates. He’s not big on the details of domestic and foreign policy, stuff he would have to spend some serious time hitting the books, which, by his only admission, he just plain does not do. Pretty simple answer it seems: Narcissistic Donald is a super-salesman, less concerned with what he is selling that the act of selling. More able to campaign for office than run the country.
Truth is expendable in Trump’s own words. In his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, he wrote: “"A little hyperbole never hurts… People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular ... It's an innocent form of exaggeration - and a very effective form of promotion." So, I get it. The Donald really is good at that singular quality: hucksterism.
Trump’s base, those Middle Americans slammed by changing times and decreasing values for blue collar skills, are likely to be his biggest victims. If he has his way, they will suffer lost healthcare and government services/protections in order fund lower taxes for corporations and the wealthy. But like most victims of snake oil salesmen, they are loath to admit that they were suckered into a dumb deal, clinging to the belief that his impossible slogans to bring back their once lucrative past are implementable, and if they are not, it is because of the Great Washington Swamp conspiring against them… not their beloved super-salesman.
And if you think that the Republican Party is going to contain this misdirection, think again. As Arizona GOP Senator Jeff Flake chooses not to run in 2018 adds one more name of Republicans choosing to opt out of political office, Donald Trump is slowly reconfiguring the entire GOP to reflect his angry populism: “Despite the fervor of President Trump’s Republican opponents, the president’s brand of hard-edge nationalism — with its gut-level cultural appeals and hard lines on trade and immigration — is taking root within his adopted party, and those uneasy with grievance politics are either giving in or giving up the fight…  The Grand Old Party risks a longer-term transformation into the Party of Trump.
“‘There is zero appetite for the ‘Never Trump’ movement in the Republican Party of today,’ said Andy Surabian, an adviser to Great America Alliance, the ‘super PAC’ that is aiding primary races against Republican incumbents. ‘This party is now defined by President Trump and his movement.’” New York Times, October 25th. The Democrats face their own split between progressives and traditionalists. What a mess!
But with nuclear war hovering, nations stepping into to snap up economic and political opportunities as Donald Trump pulls the United States in a different direction, the consequences (near and long-term) are devastating, as ex-presidents from both sides of the aisle are making clear. Republicans are only beginning to admit that Trump is an embarrassment to the GOP; Democrats are required to do so. Notwithstanding a flying-high stock market, the chickens will come home to roost… and when they do…
I’m Peter Dekom, and this Emperor definitely is stark naked!

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