Less than Censusational

The demography of the United States is changing. As diversity increases in blue cities and states, often where the best universities are, there are disturbing trends elsewhere where knowledge-based employment has simply not taken root. Iowa is the poster-child for this phenomenon, once a bastion of liberal thought in the middle of rural America, a swing state in national politics, the same state that helped put Barack Obama in the White House voted for Donald Trump.

“Iowa’s dramatic change has been both abrupt and a long time in coming. In 2008, the state propelled Mr. Obama to the White House. A year later, it was the first in the Midwest to legalize same-sex marriage. But last November, Mr. Trump won Iowa by a larger margin than he won Texas. And now Republicans control the governor’s office, the Legislature, both Senate seats and three of four in the House…

“[There] has been no significant transformation to a knowledge-based economy, with wide stretches where the jobs are better suited to those with less education. The result is that a state that thrives on trade has a regrettable net export: some of its best-educated people.

“‘We educate the hell out of our people, but our economy can’t use them, so they leave,’ said Dave Swenson, an economist at Iowa State University who has documented the exodus of college graduates from the state.

“Iowa’s high school graduation rate still leads the nation, but those who go on to four-year colleges often find themselves with limited prospects in areas outside the robust economy of Des Moines and its suburbs and often leave after graduating…

“[Bill Jacobs, Clinton County chairman notes:] ‘There is so much pressure to get the education and move somewhere else.’… Mr. Jacobs also felt the downturn in the economy in a personal way. A college professor for years, he was laid off from his most recent position at Ashford University. The school shut down all but online operations here.

“The exodus [of college-educated young people who tend to be more liberal] is not good news for Democrats… ‘Voting behavior of the college educated versus the high school educated is driving everything right now,’ said David Kochel, a prominent Republican strategist in the state, who added that there was a ‘growing resentment of elites in both parties, but it definitely favors Republicans, and is a structural benefit to Republicans.’…

“Tom Vilsack, a Democrat who served two terms as governor before becoming agriculture secretary in the Obama administration, said in an interview that his party had failed to grasp the way voters in small towns and rural areas felt that their way of life had been threatened… ‘It’s a much deeper set of reasons and longer-occurring set of circumstances,’ Mr. Vilsack said. ‘It’s interesting to look at a single election cycle, but it’s much more profound than that.’

“He quickly checked off the reasons. The agricultural economy has become more efficient and needs fewer farmers. Globalization set off a decline in domestic manufacturing. Small towns shriveled. Schools consolidated. Hospitals closed. Resentment festered… ‘Over all, people saw economic opportunity leave,’ he said. ‘Then they saw their kids and grandkids leave. They are seeing everything that they are about leave. It’s a tough emotional thing over time.’” New York Times, October 14^th. Less-educated Iowa is turning bright red.

Elsewhere, the opposite is happening, particularly in states with large cities, almost always more liberal than their surrounding rural communities. Blue rising. Diversity is growing fast, immigration policies notwithstanding, and most of those non-white-traditionalists lean heavily Democrat. Meanwhile the every-decade U.S. Census is fast approaching – 2020. But the Census Bureau is woefully underfunded, with many on the conservative side of the equation – claiming a need for fiscal responsibility – who do not want to give that Bureau what it really needs to reach into the nooks and crannies they missed in 2010.

That type of outreach both increases accuracy and tends to pick up minorities who are more likely to vote Democratic. Underfund the outreach, deprioritize that effort, and those constituencies will reap rewards for Republicans, both in terms of cutting federal funds to such minorities and in defining political districts to favor them.

There is, however, a modest Republican effort in Congress to increase the budget for the Census Bureau, but that is more a push to move the Bureau from cumbersome paper-driven information gathering, aggregation and reporting to more modern (and ultimately less expensive) computerized systems that are used by most of the developed countries around the world. The money needed for to maximize that outreach program is simply not a material part of that budgetary increase despite lip-service to the contrary.

“Of the 43 technology systems the bureau is supposed to prepare for testing in 2018, only four have completed development and 21 have some functionality. The department also canceled two sites for testing in West Virginia and Washington State.

“Rep. Jody Hice (R-Ga.) said it appeared officials were repeating the mistakes they made in 2010, when the bureau came close to utilizing new technology but had to switch back to paper-and-pencil reporting at the last minute. ‘We get promises that are never delivered on,’ Hice said at the hearing.

“While it is widely agreed that implementing new technology is a good cost-saving measure, some are worried that it will make it even harder to reach communities that are already unlikely to respond… Members of marginalized groups, including those who are poor, black, LGBT, immigrants and people in rural areas, are historically less likely to participate in the census.

“In the past, the government has successfully increased participation using a massive outreach program with a focus on advertising and communication efforts, education and partnerships with community organizations… A lack of funding for these programs or a slow start to outreach efforts could lead to undercounting, particularly of groups that are historically not well-represented.

“‘It’s deeply important that the Commerce Department and Census Bureau consult with stakeholders who are in these communities,’ said Vanita Gupta, president of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights. ‘When your constituents are not counted in the census, they remain invisible for the next 10 years.’

“The National Assn. for the Advancement of Colored People filed a lawsuit against the department this month to compel it to release information about its plans for the 2020 census to ensure it is committed to addressing undercounting of these communities.” Los Angeles Times, October 15^th.

Where will this lead this nation? We are already very, very far from one person, one vote. The emphasis on states over cities, inherent in the Constitution (e.g., two Senators each from sparsely populated rural states as well as states with as much as thirty times greater populations), produces a rural vote with almost double the voting power of an urban vote.

You’d think that we would all agree, however, that we need an accurate count of who where are and where our highly diverse population actually live. Not really. Too bad Republican incumbents seem committed to excluding any voter that would balance the scales, reflect the actual population, because that would add more power to Democrats. This explains gerrymandering, voter limitations and that tend to deny access to minorities who vote Democratic… as well as make sure the Census Bureau remains underfunded and that the outreach program be contained.

I’m Peter Dekom, and these efforts truly make a mockery of our claim to be a full-on democracy.