Dropping Shoes

As Donald Trump travels and faces the Asian nations most at risk for decimation from his verbal rake of North Korea, which he threatened the “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” over there… the Middle East continues to be the gift of instability that just keeps on giving. Apparently, boy-diplomat Jared Kushner’s mission to stabilize the region failed. Palestine and Israel still bare teeth at each other in the increasingly illusive search for a workable peace. Yemen – where surrogates for Sunni Saudis (the government) and Shiite Iran (Houthis) – has become a disease ridden killing field, destroyed beyond recognition.

Even as ISIS is driven from the cities and towns it once held, equally decimated from the horrific occupation and resulting conflict, new terror groups form and ISIS or ISIS-inspired terrorists wreak random murderous havoc all over the world. Iraq remains an Iranian puppet. The Iraqi Kurdish revolt went down in flames, as Baghdad put up the once Kurdish treasure, the oil fields in and around Kirkuk, up for bid to foreign oil companies to exploit. Turkey stumbles toward Sunni fundamentalism under the growing dictatorial efforts of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who is pulling away from his Western alliances at warp speed.

The latest in dropping shoes? Two very telling events in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, both events somewhat related. Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Saad Hariri (right above), resigned on November 4 “during a trip to Saudi Arabia, where he launched a televised verbal attack on that country’s regional rival Iran, heightening a simmering fight for political control of Lebanon.

“Hariri made the surprise announcement on the Saudi-state owned Al Arabiya news channel, leaving both his government and political allies baffled by the move. His resignation ends an 11-month run as prime minister that was meant to herald new cooperation between Lebanon’s Saudi-aligned parties and Iran-backed factions that include Hezbollah.

“Hariri also claimed there had been an attempt to kill him… “I sensed what was being conspired in the darkness to target my life,’ said Hariri, adding that the atmosphere was similar to the time when Prime Minister Rafik Hariri — Saad Hariri’s father — was assassinated in 2005… That killing, which was blamed on the Syrian government and Hezbollah, triggered the so-called Cedar Revolution that demanded an end to Syrian influence in Lebanese affairs…

“Hariri’s resignation comes one day after a meeting with Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in which, according to the official Iranian news agency IRNA, Velayati had stressed Iran’s support for the stability of Lebanon and its independence… Regionally, the response to Hariri’s departure followed the fault lines created by the Saudi-Iran rift…

“Locally, Lebanese couldn’t resist pointing out the irony of a leader condemning external influence on his country on a foreign state-owned channel. Hariri’s critics also accused him of risking Lebanon’s stability to satisfy Saudi Arabia’s anti-Iran hubris.

“But the main response was less derision than bewilderment — even among Hariri’s own Future movement, which seemed no less surprised by the announcement… ‘Frankly, Lebanon is much too small and weak to bear the economic and political burdens of this resignation,’ veteran Lebanese politician Walid Jumblatt said in a statement on Twitter on Saturday [11/4]. ‘I was and will always remain one of those who calls for dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran.’” Los Angeles Times, November 5^th.

But Al Arabiya was having a pretty busy weekend with regional news and announcements, particularly one very local event that could deliver a gut-punch to global markets, particularly destabilizing both the financial sector as well as the price of oil. “Saudi Arabia announced the arrest on Saturday night [11/4] of the prominent billionaire investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, plus at least 10 other princes, four ministers and tens of former ministers…

“He controls the investment firm Kingdom Holding and is one of the world’s richest men, owning or having owned major stakes in News Corp, Citigroup, Twitter and many other well-known companies. The prince also controls satellite television networks watched across the Arab world.

“The sweeping campaign of arrests appears to be the latest move to consolidate the power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman [left above], the favorite son and top adviser of King Salman… At 32, the crown prince is already the dominant voice in Saudi military, foreign, economic and social policies, stirring murmurs of discontent in the royal family that he has amassed too much personal power, and at a remarkably young age…

“The king had decreed the creation of a powerful new anti-corruption committee, headed by the crown prince, only hours before the committee ordered the arrests… The Ritz Carlton hotel in Riyadh, the de facto royal hotel, was evacuated on Saturday, stirring rumors that it would be used to house detained royals. The airport for private planes was closed, arousing speculation that the crown prince was seeking to block rich businessmen from fleeing before more arrests.” New York Times, November 4^th.

A power play, eliminating any potential rivals, or a genuine purge of laissez-faire Saudi mega-rich princes (the ones at the top; there are literally thousands of royals) who pretty much do (did?) what they wanted? Think of the trial. Think of the punishment is a nation of very physical punishment under strict Sharia law. Do you think the President even understands these roiling Middle Eastern seas?

            I’m Peter Dekom, and while it seems that these are distant events that could not possibly impact the United States, think about oil prices, the stock market and that constant Saudi-Iranian schism (Sunni-Shiite) that seems to define so much of what the United States military spends in the entire region.