The Other Coastal Ring of Fire

As Donald Trump visits Asia, as the United States looks from its Pacific Shores toward that massive continent, a fracture bigger than the San Andreas Fault is developing with three contiguous American states on sitting on the edge of that Ring of Fire tectonic plate. From the Canadian to the Mexican borders. Three closely aligned blue states, generating tremendous plus highly successful next generation technology and literally America’s spearhead in modern job creation, are could move into a new and higher level of cooperation because of one special election in one left coast state following the death of a popular Republican state senator. Dems may be cheering about big gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey, but there may be greater joy in the Pacific Northwest.

Washington State was the only left coast state legislature where there was at least one body in the legislature controlled by a Republican: the state senate. A right wing suburb Seattle, itself one of the most progressive cities in the Union. But there are strong “red state” regions within Washington that have managed to control that state’s senate, usually in heavily agricultural areas. One senate district just flipped, however. “A single election in a wealthy Seattle suburb on Tuesday [11/7] made] that scenario a reality, handing the party full control of government in Washington State — and extinguishing Republicans’ last fragile claim on power on the West Coast. The region has been a rare Democratic stronghold on an electoral map now dominated by vast swaths of red, and Republicans’ only toehold on power there has been a one-seat majority in the Washington State Senate.

“The prospect of such far-reaching autonomy for Democrats, who already hold all three governors’ offices as well as both houses of the legislatures in Oregon and California, has infused extraordinary energy into what might have been a low-key special election. The race is on track to draw more than $9 million in campaign spending, a record-breaking sum for Washington State. National environmental and abortion rights groups… mobilized, business associations and oil companies have poured in money, and a former vice president, Joseph R. Biden Jr., has intervened on the Democratic side…

“Democrats have sketched an aggressive agenda on issues where strong consensus appears to exist in the party, including new laws on gun control, contraception and environmental regulation. [Washington Senate Democrat-Caucus-leader Sharon] Nelson said she had met with the speaker of the Oregon Statehouse about enacting policy across state lines. The three states’ Democratic governors have spoken regularly about policy collaboration, and over the summer began coordinated talks on climate change with foreign heads of state.” New York Times, November 3^rd. Democrat Manka Dhingra, a 20-year King County prosecutor, squared off against Republican Jinyoung Englund, a child of Korean immigrants, who has worked as an aide to a Republican congressman, a spokeswoman for bitcoin, the digital currency, and helped develop a mobile phone app used by Marines to acclimate abroad. On November 7^th, Dhingra pulled off a victory against her state senatorial opponent. With the Dems in charge, Washington is poised to join other left coast states to prioritize environmental, healthcare and income inequality issues.

Coincidentally, it seems, the United Nations Climate Change Conference convened in Bonn, Germany on November 7^th. This western-most part of the United States never bought into Donald Trump’s vision of America. Climate change deniers are met with derision out here. Science made this region wealthy; to deny scientific facts is simple heresy. Immigrants are heavily represented on the left coast. Medical care and solid taxation for the richest members of society resonate strongly across these three states.

West Coasters want to be part of the global economy the multinational trade agreements and join environmental commitments to set standards that target greenhouse gasses. They scoff at Donald Trump’s notion of bi-lateral trade agreements, policies reflective of the early to mid-20^th century, long before the world became overly connected and deeply interdependent. The left coast, particularly within the range of North Korean missiles, quivers in fear at Donald Trump’s provocations against Kim Jong-un, the worst among many massive foreign policy missteps.

The blueness of the West Coast is heavily concentrated in the western-most coastal cities, but those are population centers that are only growing in numbers of people and raw economic power. Pragmatic but left of center. Like California, which has elected Republican governors (who seem more like Blue Dog Democrats), Washington is reflective of anything but a simple left/right divide.

“[Amid] their exuberance, [Washington State] Democrats concede it [will] take time to assemble substantial policy achievements… Democrats would be governing with the slimmest possible majority and with just one short legislative session before the next election in 2018. And like Democrats in other parts of the nation, they are divided. In 2013, two Democratic state senators crossed the aisle to caucus with the Republicans, creating a coalition majority, and wounds still linger from the 2016 presidential election, when Senator Bernie Sanders won in the Democratic caucuses but then lost to Hillary Clinton in the primary election.” NY Times.

Nevertheless, this is a big move, putting all West Coast states under almost total Democratic control (governors, state legislators and at least US Senators) … assuming the Dems can hold this trilogy together. The bigger question is what could happen if the West Coast continues to stay together, “resist” and separate itself from the Trump-led directives and directions of red state America. The rural ethos, the built-in constitutional voting bias that would allow a president to be elected with a three million deficit in the popular vote, is coming head-to-head with the more urbanized and affluent states on both coasts.

It’s that as most of us “out here” feel and believe, we just do not fit in with that red state definition of the future of America. The clear majority of those on this left coast want no part of that vision. Even as Washington State may be neutral on the right to deduct state income taxes on federal returns (Washington does not have personal income tax), a majority of the electorate pretty much aligns with Oregon and California on just about everything else.

If Trump populism holds firm and redefines the “American direction,” the left coast’s growing desire to break away from that vision will probably create powerful instability, if not a lot of violence (particularly from right wing militias located in each state, if not the U.S. military itself, if those states attempt to breakaway – a West Coast version of the Civil War). We may be joined by Hawaii, Colorado, Nevada and maybe even New Mexico, but there is a fracture growing, and Donald Trump appears to be working overtime to keep this nation divided.

As much as Donald Trump’s base is committed and passionate about the President’s disruptive vision, taking his statements and actions with a grain of salt but overjoyed at his attack on the “swamp” and impossible-to-implement promises to bring back yesterday’s jobs and economic strength, the West Coast is equally committed and passionate to reject those values. We live in a modern, globally-connected, computer-driven economy grappling with the world as it really is, including its severe environmental and income inequality problems.

Simply, we view so much of what Trump proposes as a direct assault on what we on the left coast hold dear. We really need virtually nothing that red state America grows, extracts or manufactures. The northern East Coast may share that vision, but it is indeed difficult to picture a new fractured “America” with a liberal country split in two by waves and wave of red states in between, that “flyover” epithet that mid-Westerners deride. Perhaps the coasts could link in a commonality that mirrors the European Union-meets-NATO. Not a fun vision, and perhaps sanity will eventually prevail.

But even if demographic realities reverse the power dynamic – putting blue states with bigger urban centers in control of the presidency and both houses of Congress – do the red states fight back against that change? Is the carnage of destruction inevitable no matter what?

We may hate that view of the destruction of America, but unless this country figures out how to compromise, to get along with people of differing races, cultures and religions and how to live in the world as it really is, we just might be ripped apart by those irreconcilable differences that might make interesting politics but are in fact nation killers. We have a lot to lose, but most folks seem only to be digging in their heels, encouraged by a president who seems to revel in it all.

I’m Peter Dekom, and unless something happens pretty soon to reunite a deeply divided country, I am afraid that we may soon pass the tipping point of no return.