Put People First!

The Republican and Democratic versions of the State of the Union are now done. The battle lines pretty much remain as they were before these speeches. But today, I will look primarily at a disorganized and focus-challenged Democratic Party that just could waste a unique political opportunity by addressing America’s needs with mixed messages and confusion.

As I watch the struggle between the two biggest factions in the Democratic Party – progressives versus traditionalists – I wonder whether internecine issues could undermine Dem efforts to take control of the House (less likely: the Senate) in 2018 and the presidency in 2020. In California, the risks are even greater, since primaries push the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, on to the final ballot. With very few Republicans running for most House seats and other relevant state offices versus a free-for-all with lots and lots of Dems fighting for themselves, it is not inconceivable that in sheer numbers of votes for individuals, the Dems could so dilute their efforts that in a really bright blue state, the available choices just might be a race between two Republicans for key offices.

How could this happen? “Suppose — and it’s anything but a wild supposition — that the Koch brothers funding network, or some other group of mega-rich donors, decides to fund two Republicans in each of those  races [in the swing districts where GOP reps Darrell Isa and Ed Royce are retiring], giving those candidates a decided advantage. Suppose the three leading Democrats in each of those races stay in the race, along with the other Democrats still in the field. (There are seven Democratic candidates in Royce’s district.) Suppose, in the June primary, the total vote for the district’s Republican candidates comes to 44%, with the two leaders each winning 20%. Suppose the total vote for the district’s Democratic candidates comes to 54% (let’s say 2% goes to minor party candidates), but it’s split so many ways that the leading Democrat gets just 19%.

“If all those suppositions hold, then the candidates in the November run-off would both be Republicans, even though the Democrats would have collectively outpolled the GOP hopefuls by 10 percentage points.” Los Angeles Times, January 30^th. The GOP may be struggling with its dramatic shift to the right, but it still seems to be in a better place than the Dems.

The GOP is comprised of a rather simple constituency: Fiscal and social conservatives. In a more basic schism: rich folks and people guided by strict and exclusionary moral codes, where the rich folks are quite prepared to give up just about any “moral victory” in exchange for lower taxes and fewer regulations. While educated Republicans might be dismayed by Donald Trump’s embarrassing litany of provocative and inappropriate utterances, his obvious willingness to accord the alt-right free rein, they are equally invigorated by his tax and regulatory policies and his embrace of an infrastructure program that literally turns over major assets (e.g., highways, bridges, etc.) to the profit-driven private sector. Trump’s ability to insure conservative dominance for decades to come via judicial appointments delights them as well.

The Democratic Party is, fractured, scattered among a rainbow of issues, from racial, ethnic and gender tolerance (which leaks heavily into the immigration debate), removing religious mandates from government (quite the opposite of the GOP evangelical mandate), women’s rights (from equal pay, free choice to addressing sexual harassment/assault), embracing global responsibility, relying on scientific reality, moving towards universal healthcare to mirror the rest of the developed world, supporting additional safety nets, focusing on imposing obvious restrictions on gun ownership, dealing with growing issues from global trade and automation, opening the economy to more people, and embracing a system which increases access to affordable education.

Democratic progressives see a massive reduction in educational costs, forgiveness of student loans, instant implementation of universal healthcare, tighter restrictions on police particularly in minority communities, environmental responsibility, consumer protection laced with real financial regulation, prioritization of all women’s issues, appointment of liberal judges, a more empathetic immigration policy, real gun control and a severe extraction of organized religion from political choices.

Traditionalists embrace those fiscal blue dogs who fear overspending and believe more in embracing human (particularly minority) rights than in new expensive programs that will, of necessity, require higher taxes and more regulation. Hence, their programs in healthcare and education are gradual and more modest. Where government spending does become part of that traditional program, it focused on infrastructure, where the government itself funds and staffs those efforts (and hence directly creates jobs), where such expenditures are viewed as “investments in productivity” versus pure government spending without the expected return on investment.

The Republicans have traditionally eschewed huge deficits and screamed for a balanced budget. The have masked the massive, trillion dollar plus, deficit that their reduction of corporate income tax rates will inevitably cause with a completely-unsupported claim that they will create such an explosion of jobs and economic benefits that the deficit will turn into a surplus. We are not likely to see any measurable results, one way or the other, until 2019 and beyond, giving hope to the GOP that this issue will not resonate with voters, many of whom will receive token tax cuts. And they will highlight a soaring stock market and a lower unemployment rate as their basis for reelection. In a world where “it’s the economy stupid,” the GOP intends to take and hold the high ground.

As this nation rapidly moves away from a majority of white Christians, mostly Protestant, into a majority of minorities, you’d think that the Dems will have a rather linear path to victory. But not only do they face gerrymandering and voter restrictions heavily skewed against them, but their efforts to reach “middle of the road” independents – the ultimate deciders in American politics to dates – are compromised by embracing high-expenditure social/educational programs which have to paid for somewhere.

Millennials and Z-generation, raised without that kneejerk negativity to anything that challenges capitalism and embraces anything that smacks of socialism, are attracted to that Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren social progressiveness and open inclusiveness. Stray too far into the traditional lane, the Millennials and Z-generation will stay away from the polls. Reflect overly liberal spending and watch independents side with the GOP. Not that the Dems can do much without a 60 vote cloture-busting majority in the Senate anyway. Some what do the Dems do?

Donald Trump is not running in 2018, even though his policies are on the table. First lesson for the Dems, focus on local issues at the core of their message. Save the national arguments for the 2020 presidential campaign. The notion of evangelical hypocrisy – supporting one of the most openly immoral presidents in our history – is not going to resonate unless that is a bona fide local issue. Where embracing immorality, where local politicians seem to have suborned vulgarity and violation of some of the most basic religious precepts matters, then and only then does this become a local issue.

But how do Dems take down the seeming GOP “economy-hegemony”? While Donald Trump created catchy slogans, “Make America Great Again” and “America First,” words that sounded good until you really questioned what they mean, the Dems countered with dozens of slogans on countless issues. That scattered response found very limited traction and only seemed to confirm that the Dems don’t have any uniform message. I am going to start with a new Democratic catch phrase that I believe will differentiate a GOP pro-business/corporate bias: Put People First!

The GOP message is that they believe favoring business will trickle down benefits to ordinary working Americans, a practice that history has proven false (e.g., the Reagan era tax cuts and most recently Kansas horrific experience with a comparable state tax cut). The Democratic message has to look beyond the modest and temporary individual tax cuts (or taxincreases in high state tax blue states) to a bigger reality: the cost of living.

As the moneyed classes drive up the cost of housing, as the GOP clawback of the Affordable Care Act has resulted in staggering increases in healthcare not covered by Medicare or employment benefits, and as food prices skyrocket from higher costs for agricultural workers, and as that massive new deficit generates interest and payback obligations on all of us… and as the GOP talks about cutting Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, etc… it’s clear that while the GOP represents corporate America, no one directly represents the people.

As Trump inherited a growing economy, with unemployment falling and GDP rising in the waning years of the Obama administration, he most certainly can take credit for a soaring stock market. But why that market soared is key: the GOP simply paid that trillion dollar plus deficit directly into corporate coffers under that cut in the federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. And if you pour cash into a company, given that corporate valuation is the basis for share prices, of course the stock market will soar. Duh! But that’s not because deregulation made business better; the government effectively wrote huge checks to corporate American creating deficit that will have to be paid back and serviced by mostly “the rest of us.”

And while the notion of traditionalists missing the Sanders/Warren economic message is sheer folly, likewise the progressives’ wanting it all now is both unrealistic and will alienate that vast middle. Traditionalists should continue their press for equal/civil rights for all, but that cannot be at the top of their priority list. People are terrified for their futures. They have accepted that most of us will not live as well as our parents, but there is still something that sticks in the craw of most of us at the degree of wealth polarization that plagues the country.

Dems! Drill down on that feeling. Focus on the elephant in the room: that the displacement of workers by automation is shifting earnings from individual workers to the owners of the machines that are replacing them. Start the discussion of taxing machines that take jobs away, of guaranteeing those displaced of a life-sustaining replacement income or job alternatives. There is no such thing as “clean coal” (where demand and jobs are vaporizing), but alternative energy is a much greater job-creating off-set.

Embrace universal healthcare and greater affordability and access to higher education… over time. Phased in but inevitable. Embrace exchanging a percentage of future earnings for those rising educational costs. The Russia collusion-obstruction of justice issues are getting to be old tired news that no longer motivate voters. Think outside the box. Be innovative. And above all, link the GOP with its corporate bias and the retrograde of evangelical values that are at odds with the growing new majority. And Dems, listen to the huge women’s movement. It is mission critical. The GOP puts Corporations First; Dems should scream that they Put People First!

I’m Peter Dekom, and if we do not shift the overall direction of this nation, this is probably the century when that great experiment in democracy, the United States of America, fractures and dies.