Placed awkwardly in front of Kim Jong-un’s invited sister, Kim Yo Jong, in a high profile viewing box, US Vice President Mike Pence remained seated as the North/South Korean mixed assemblage of Olympic athletes entered the stadium for the opening ceremonies… and as the rest of the arena stood up. Pence symbolically sat near Fred Warmbier, whose son Otto died from apparent torture while in North Korean custody for stealing a propaganda poster. Pence did not, as some had projected, exchange greetings with Kim Yo Jong, instead sitting stoically watching the proceedings. The Trump administration have been tightening the screws with even further sanctions against the North.
Make no mistake. Kim Jong Un is a malevolent, untrustworthy tyrant in one of the most repressed nations in the world. His less-than-secret ambition is the reunification of the entire Korean Peninsula under his rule. And he is a nuclear power with the missile capacity (or near-term capacity) to reach most of the United States. But Kim Jong Un has played Donald Trump and his administration like a fiddle, while vexing even his Chinese ally with his careless military tests and policies. Even as UN and US sanctions intensify, and even as most of the world realized that Kim will never relinquish nuclear weapons unless he is militarily crushed, a reality that would not only inflict untold death and destruction in the North… but across the border into neighboring countries, particularly our ally South Korea.
Kim has made gestures to reach across the border, reciprocated by South Korean President Moon Jae-in, resulting in that combined North/South Korean winter Olympic team and the invitation to Kim Yo Jong to attend. This was a carefully negotiated agreement between the two Koreas, a blending of athletes, even a combined women’s hockey team. Watching a North/South pair of Korean athletes carry the Olympic torch until the final lighting moment must have torn up Mike Pence inside. It was a peace gesture that the whole world was watching… and Pence shifted nervously in review.
And now, through his sister, Kim Jong Un has made another “reasonable” gesture toward diffusing the tensions on the Peninsula by inviting South Korean President Moon Jae-in to meet with him in the North. It has been over a decade since such a high-level summit has taken place… and the world was hoping that this just might be workaround that could shunt a saber-rattling Donald Trump to the sidelines. Tricky, since without US military cover, South Korea is a sitting duck for the North’s overall ambitions.
Moon Jae-in gave lip service as to how the US sanctions were the catalyst for the North/South Olympic connection – wink-wink – but most international leaders felt that statement was a made-up “save face” statement to allow Trump some dignity in his failed efforts. And Moon Jae-in, a progressive desperate for peace, is equally aware of the highly manipulative Kim Jong Un and his desire to plant a great big wedge between the US and the South. Still, Donald Trump – intensely disliked throughout the region – was clearly being outplayed on the international stage by “little Rocket man.”
“The terms, timing and location of any such meeting were unclear. The potential reaction from Washington, a key South Korean ally on security issues, which has sought to maximize pressure on the North to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, also remained uncertain.
“On Saturday [2/10], while returning to the U.S. from South Korea, Vice President Mike Pence said ‘there is no daylight’ separating the U.S., the South and Japan on their view of the North and its efforts on nuclear arms and missiles, the Associated Press reported. Pence, while aboard Air Force Two, said he left Asia ‘encouraged that we will continue to work very closely to continue and intensify the maximum pressure campaign’ against the North…
“After inviting the North’s officials, including Kim Yo Jong, to the opening ceremony on Friday night [2/10], Moon seemed to sense the opportunity. He offered a toast to open the lunch meeting at the Blue House, the presidential complex named for its distinctly colored tile roof.
“‘The world’s attention is on today’s meeting, and there are high hopes for the North and the South,’ said Moon, according to remarks released by his office. ‘We have a heavy responsibility.’… The invitation comes as Pence visited Seoul in an effort to keep the world — and, perhaps, Moon — focused on the North’s provocative actions in 2017, which included an underground nuclear detonation and the testing of three long-range missiles capable of striking the American mainland.
“Members of the North’s delegation sat just behind Pence at the Olympic stadium for the festivities in Pyeongchang, though the vice president didn’t greet them publicly or in private — even as rumors swirled in Seoul about that possibility.” Los Angeles Times, February 11th.
Can such a summit take place without giving Kim Jong Un what he wants – exacerbating a growing rift between South Korea and the Trump administration? Can Moon Jae-in figure out a way to accept Kim’s invitation without hurting his relationship with the United States, even though South Korean insiders describe his horror at Trump’s repeated and unnecessarily provocative statements about Kim and the North? Will Moon Jae-in reach the conclusion that this meeting just has to take place, one way or another?
Older South Koreans yearn for some kind of reunification or reopening of the border; they still have ties to relatives and friends in the North. Younger South Koreans have no such ties and many fears, but the diffusing a war that would surely envelop them is clearly a priority. Still, they see Kim’s blatant manipulation for what it is. And somehow, if for no other reason than to prevent a war, Moon Jae-in is more open to détente than any Korean leader for years. But there is hardly uniform support for this North/South summit in Seoul.
“The invitation could have been predicted immediately after Kim’s address, said Bong Young-shik, a visiting research fellow at Yonsei University in Seoul… Bong, who doesn’t favor such a meeting, said it’s a sign that the international pressure placed on the North forced it to act with diplomacy. ‘He clearly stated his intention to go all-out to engage South Korea,’ he said of Kim Jong Un. ‘The economic sanctions are finally beginning to really work. They have hit the North Korea leadership where it hurts.’” LA Times. When Pence returned to the United States, he suggested that talks between the US and North Korea were possible, even as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told the world that it was just too soon to contemplate such discussions. What exactly is US policy these days? As Trump escalates tensions (no sign of any letup there), Moon-Jae-in needs to keep ties with the US tight… but still find a way to diffuse what could easily explode in his face. Time will tell, but most of the world still is holding its global breath... with hope. Korea ain’t easy!
I’m Peter Dekom, and if were just able to eliminate Trump provocations and get some diplomatic realists to represent American interests…
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment