Negotiating from Weakness

Donald Trump is addicted to bi-lateral negotiations with other nations, a very common practice in the mid-to-late-20^th century, when globalization was beginning to expand but hardly what it would become decades later. After WWII, there were spokes-countries for various blocs: USSR for itself and Eastern Europe, the United States for the West (and Japan), while China remained cloistered, India less so (but with UK roots). The Super-Powers pretty much called the shots around the world. The world factionalized. Nations were either aligned with the West, USSR or joined a group of nations that either vacillated between the blocs (playing each side against the other) or accepting status as a “non-aligned” country.

It was simpler then. The European Union only came about at the end of the 20^th century, just as China began rising and asserting her regional and then global dominance. Trade agreements which had earlier been dictated by the Super-Powers or negotiated bi-laterally, gave way to the World Trade Organization, followed by a litany of regional agreements (such as NAFTA). The military alignments reconfigured somewhat, but once again blocs of countries formed (e.g., NATO took on a post-Cold War face) or, where the Security Council did not veto an effort, the United Nations increased its presence as a global enforcer/peacemaker with varying degrees of success. The United States appointed itself as a global police force.

Then came the 21^st century as time and distance continued to collapse, as nations that had once withdrawn from a global game – like China – became active mega-players. 9/11/01 hit. The US reacted. As it rippled its economic power, its military presence staggered after 20^th century losses in Vietnam, facing another unwinnable set of conflicts in the Middle East decades later in the 21^st century..

The EU was formed partially to counter the overwhelming bargaining power of the United States, politically and economically. With all of Europe merged, that created an international balance the guaranteed that Europe was central to global treaties, trade and peace. Russia and Europe sparred over whether some of the CIS nations would come back to Mother Russia or lean towards Europe as most of Eastern Europe had elected to do. Nations now made their treaties in groups, military, political and trade. Even the Iran nuclear accord (formally, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) was a six party (Britain, France, Russia, China, the US and Germany) negotiation under the aegis of the United Nations.

Enter Donald Trump, whose entire campaign was predicated on pushing the United States back in time to “Make America Great Again” and foster “America First,” a notion of American policy that harkens back to Presidents Woodrow Wilson and Warren Harding in the post WW-I era. Nobody apparently told him that history does not work that way. He loves those one-on-one negotiations of yesteryear. He abhors group treaties even though that is the efficiency required by a modern world. He railed against so many group treaties, from NAFTA to the JCPOA and the Paris climate accord, during the campaign, pledging to bring the United States into a world of simple bi-lateral, one-on-one deals. Most nations realized the folly of that game, and even allies like Japan and South Korea refused to leave their trade groups to make a separate deal. Trump’s “worst deal ever negotiated” slogan applied to so many “group deals.”

Not particularly well-schooled in the international connective marketplace, Donald Trump mounted a go-it-alone policy… believing he could force the world by his bullying. His increasingly “fall-in-line” GOP comrades – the traditional Republicans were slowly withdrawing from political office – tripped all over themselves to flatter an ego-driven president. He took rather complete credit for the détente between North and South Korea, although that was a follow-up to the joint Olympic presence and simply reflected what S. Korean President Moon and N. Korea’s Kim Jong-un said they planned to do (and did) on their own. Trump even got a bunch of those coattail Republicans to sponsor him for the Nobel Peace Prize. We’ll know more on June 12^th, when Kim and Trump meet in Singapore (but N and S Korea have already negotiated the bulk of the treaty between themselves and with blessings from China!)

His pull-out from the JCPOA Iran accord was an implantation of his campaign pledge, represented a break with the rest of his Western allies (and fellow treaty negotiators) and put the U.S. into a dangerous new conflict posture with Iran… without a plan B. As Iran and the remaining European allies agreed to try and continue the JCPOA themselves, clearly mitigating any potential new U.S. sanctions promised by Trump, the President was left with few cards to play. The May 8^th The Cipher Brief (Amb. James Jeffrey, former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey):

“Trump’s Iran decision is a risky choice, but the next steps will determine whether it is a serious mistake. The full U.S. pullout of the JCPOA and reinstitution of U.S. sanctions per se neither dramatically increase economic pressure on Teheran nor slow Iran’s theoretical ability to obtain nuclear weapons. In fact, by ending totally U.S. participation in the agreement, the president opened the door to Iran—as allowed under the JCPOA’s Article 36—pulling out of all or many of the current constraints on its enrichment program. These new U.S. sanctions themselves can little hurt the Iranian economy, as most Iranian activities have remained under U.S. sanctions for other purposes such as counter-terrorism. What brought Iran to an agreement in 2015 was global economic sanctions particularly on Iranian oil exports, but there is no indication that major oil export players such as the Europeans or China will implement US sanctions. Nor does the President’s decision itself impact Iran’s destabilizing behavior around the region.

“Thus, the administration in its follow-up will have to explain how it will exert such global economic pressure on Iran, respond to Iran in Syria and Yemen, and stop it, if no longer constrained by the JCPOA, from moving quickly to amass sufficient highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon…” And then there is the rather scary threat of a wider and direct conflict directly with Iran, where hardliners are circling their wagons.

By way of example, immediately after the Trump withdrawal from JCPOA (with Israeli support), Iran and Israel began what the world hopes will be a very short and limited shooting war. Rocket and missile rang out from both sides. “Iran lashed out Wednesday [5/9] at President Trump’s decision to pull the United States out of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei relaying a scornful message to Trump: ‘You cannot do a damn thing!’

“With repercussions of the long-anticipated move by Trump rippling across the Middle East and elsewhere, Israel said its forces were in a high state of readiness against potential strikes by Iranian forces across the border in Syria. Shelters were opened in the Golan Heights and Israel deployed Iron Dome missile defense batteries.

“In Tehran, shouts of ‘Death to America!’ rang out in Iran’s parliament as some lawmakers set fire to a paper U.S. flag. Trump, in Washington, warned of “very severe” consequences if Iran resumes its nuclear program in response to the United States pulling out of the deal, which was signed by five other nations.

“Khamenei, who has the final say in all affairs of state, used considerably harsher rhetoric than President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif did a day earlier in criticizing Trump’s announcement.

“‘The body of this man Trump will turn to dust and his corpse will be fed on by snakes and insects, while the Islamic Republic continues to stand,’ Khamenei said in remarks delivered to a group of schoolteachers and carried by state news outlets.

“He accused Trump of telling repeated lies and engaging in ‘ugly and petty behavior.’” Los Angeles Times, May 10^th. Of course Iran is a rogue state fomenting Islamic fundamentalism and anti-Western vitriol with their surrogates and now even with their own military forces. The only major difference now is that the restraints on their nuclear weapons program may unravel and their hardliners encouraged to escalate their global aggression. Thank you, Mr. President! And Vladimir Putin, one of the six parties to the JCPOA and now very much Iran’s ally, also thanks you!

I’m Peter Dekom, and I sure wish Mr. Trump liked to read, because there are so many history books that could show him exactly what he is up against that seems to elude his grasp.