They Ain’t Exactly Quivering in Their Boots

Master negotiator, Donald “The Art of the Deal” Trump loves luring his negotiating partners in, pulling back at the last minute, adding threats and sanctions, postponing them, lifting them, pretending to trade off of them successfully. He one-upped Kim Jong-Un to get that North Korean leader back in line… but hadn’t South Korea’s President Moon already worked out all the biggest points with Kim?

So Trump just rubber stamps the end of the “armistice” with that pre-set peace treaty and comes up with an observer/enforcement plan to track the nukes. Until Kim decides to resume his nuclear program at a later date. For President Moon’s efforts – from the joint Korean Olympic team to his direct workout with Kim of a mutual goal to denuclearize the entire peninsula –Trump believes The Donald should get the Nobel Peace Prize? Hey, Donnie, could it be that Moon was just flattering you (by thanking you for all your sanctions and help) to keep the money flowing and the tariffs down? You always buy anyone who flatters you. Why is that again?

China makes concessions to us that look great on paper as well, but a pledge for China massively to increase its purchases of American goods is really impossible to track accurately. China has still militarized its man-made Spratly Island, still makes it tough for American businesses in China to get their profits into hard dollars, has tortuous patent, copyright and trademark protection (unless you are Ivanka Trump) and is still heavily into ferreting out our best technology through rather indirect means. In short, China has played the Donald like a puppet. Oh and higher tariffs on Chinese goods tends to hurt U.S. consumers much worse (higher prices and tariffs on Trump’s farmer constituency) than they do on Chinese companies.

And yes, Donald, pulling out of the U.N. six-party Iran nuclear accord (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) and imposing harsh new sanctions on Iran didn’t move us one lonely inch closer to getting nasty Tehran out of suborning terrorism in the region – with its surrogate Hezbollah and direct aid to Shiite Houthis and Sunni Taliban and Hamas. That’s what you told the world your actions would produce. It did, however, put in question  whether or not Tehran might resume its nuclear weapons development program and handed their leaders a bargaining chip to use against the remaining six nations (Russia, China and especially Germany, U.K. and France). Russia is so busy winking at Iran their eyes hurt!

Effectively, Tehran’s hardliners want some powerful reassurances from the remaining five nations (mostly the European Union members) that they will honor the JCPOA they signed, despite American threats to punish nations who violate our sanctions (especially in connection with that nuclear program). What a nice way to embarrass the United States and further foster a growing wedge between Europe and the United States.

As the United States winds down its JCPOA involvement, the U.S. has made demands of Iran to get us back into a treaty. “U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reinforced Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in recent remarks at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC, stating that the deal ‘failed to guarantee the safety of the American people from the risk created by the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran.’ Pompeo also highlighted what the administration views as the JCPOA’s shortcomings, including its ‘sunset provisions,’ which lift restrictions on critical Iranian nuclear activities in 10-15 years, its verification measures, and its failure to address Iran’s ballistic missile development or destabilizing actions.

“Pompeo also outlined twelve demands that the Islamic Republic must meet for relations between Washington and Tehran to be normalized. The list requires Iran to provide complete transparency and comprehensive verification of its past and current nuclear activities, release detained U.S. citizens, halt the launching and development of nuclear-capable missile systems, terminate its support for terrorist organizations and proxy groups across the Middle East and South Asia, and end its interference in the sovereign affairs of neighboring countries.

“Since assuming office in January 2017, the Trump Administration has taken a tough stance toward Iran. Following Iranian ballistic missile tests conducted in January 2017, the Trump administration put Iran ‘on notice’ saying it will ‘no longer tolerate Iran’s provocations that threaten our interests.’ During a speech delivered last October, President Trump emphasized that his administration is focused on working with allies to counter Iranian aggression in the Middle East, increase sanctions on Iranian entities, address Tehran’s proliferation of missiles and weapons, and deny the regime all paths to a nuclear weapon… Over the last few months, the Trump administration has also sanctioned major Iranian individuals and entities.” Bennett Seftel writing for The Cipher Brief, May 29^th.  Has Iran moved slightly as the Donald said they would? Nope!

But Iran, in turn, is enjoying the widening schism between the U.S. and Europe – particularly Trump’s ignoring the entreaties from France’s Macron and Germany’s Merkel on the JCPOA – way too much and has ratcheted up its own rhetoric and demands: “Nonetheless, the Iranian leadership continues to initiate chants of ‘Death to America’ and remains committed to supporting terrorist and proxy groups that have sown chaos throughout the Middle East.

“‘The timing of what [these recent sanctions] mean for Iran is going to depend on many variables ranging from the effectiveness of sanctions enforcement to regional developments to Iran’s perceptions of what domestic requirements must be satisfied to maintain stability,’ says Cipher Brief Expert Norm Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

“As part of its effort to limit the impact of the sanctions, Roule expects that Iran will look to ‘sell as much oil as possible in the next few months,’ and is also likely to attempt to ‘lock in contracts with China and Russia as a means of demonstrating weaknesses in the sanctions regime.’

“One potential setback that could impede the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions is the divide between Europe and the U.S. over the Iran nuclear deal. Last Wednesday [5/23], Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei spelled out a number of conditions that the European parties to the deal must meet for Iran to remain a party to the JCPOA. Khamenei insisted that European powers should continue to buy Iranian oil, that European banks should continue to protect trade with Iran, and that the European countries pledge to not negotiate on Iran’s ballistic missile program or regional activities. If these demands were not met, Khamenei threatened to resume enriching uranium.” The Cipher Brief.

Good thing the Donald hates to read and gets most of his information from Sean Hannity and his cronies at Fox News. He would not remotely be happy at what is really happening with all of his “The Art of the Deal” diplomatic initiatives and how the world sees the truth. If it creates good sound bites on Fox, regardless of the substance, that does seem to be enough.

I’m Peter Dekom, and to watch this self-aggrandizing diplomatic charade, one most of the world recognizes for what it really is, seems to be particularly distressful in light of the most significant negative long-term consequences for the United States… and the world.