Slip-Sliding Away… Alone

Rising Turkish dictator-wannabe, Recep Erdogan, appears victorious in an election that not only gave him the newly-created “presidency” but a clear pathway to consolidating increasing power under his aegis. For us, it seems that Turkey’s role in NATO is unlikely to continue. Bye-bye. As Donald Trump’s proclivity to declare tariffs drives our allies and frenemies farther away, as his inhumane immigration policies (including denigrating constitutionally-mandated “due process”) embarrass our allies and create increasing distance, we become more and more an isolated rogue state. Our allies are slowly pulling away from us.

The signs of the resulting growing economic chaos are beginning to come to light here as well. U.S. motorcycle-maker Harley Davidson is moving some of its production facilities overseas to avoid Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, and U.S. soybean and sorghum farmers are prepared as China simply stops buying their goods in retaliation. Prices are plunging in that world.

As Trump threatens European Union car manufacturers with a 20% flat out tariff, most of us are unaware that a zero-car-tariff has been in negotiation for some time with the EU. But Trump’s need to rub international leaders’ faces in his demands does not sit well with any major power on earth. Zero. They either are antagonized by such egotistical grandstanding or are simply taking advantage of an insecure leader who simply does not understand international politics. Either way, it’s really bad for most of us, even as Gallop polls show Trump’s highest level of popularity with his main constituency: 90% of the GOP solidly stands behind him.

As Trump’s tweets insult Democrats, blaming them for anything he disagrees with, as Democrats encourage businesses to stop doing business with higher level Trump appointees and spokespeople, civility has left the building and is unlikely to return anytime soon. Donald Trump at this point is what he is; he represents his supporters and literally no one else. Democrats know that and some have tried, rather unsuccessfully, to trade barbs with the President. Donald Trump thrives through polarizing the nation, denigrating the opposition and blaming them for anything gone awry. As bad at this trend is for our global power, prestige and influence, nothing is likely to change in a Trumpian vision of America.

The international opprobrium heaped on the United States doesn’t move Trump’s constituents one iota; in fact they rather enjoy the fracas. And the more Democrats hurl retaliatory invectives at The Donald, the more they call him on his rather blatant litany of fabrications, the more Trump’s base, which now completely dominates the GOP, rallies behind their iconic-leader. The only Republicans willing to challenge Trump doctrine are lame duck Congressmen and women who are not running for reelection. Indeed, many in the GOP are rolling in the joy of a robust economy and a very low rate of unemployment… all being credited to the President and his policies.

But if those tariffs, and the resulting trade war, continue to blunt Americans trying to making money overseas or who need imports to be profitable, at some time, the steamroller high-flying economy, that foreign negativity will invade the domestic body politic. It is a calculated risk for Donald Trump that he can control those trade wars in advance of the November mid-terms, keeping the U.S. economy in top form, a harbinger of good news for Republicans who are trying to push immigration issues aside. If the trade war provokes a recession or a significant increase in unemployment, there will be a very different story come November.

The irreconcilable differences that have split this nation into factions incapable of compromise, the underlying Trump-practice of keeping your enemies on the defensive, may work well politically for the President here, as long as the economy holds, but that degree of instability also creates a soft underbelly of vulnerability for our enemies, particularly Putin’s Russia, to exploit.

That the “Russian connection” is the focus of the Mueller Justice Department probe, that Trump has denied that Russia interfered with our 2016 election or favored him with a powerful anti-Clinton hacking/disinformation campaign, only make it easier for the Russians to continue their efforts to continue to destabilize the United States. By denying the Russians are doing anything, Trump cannot justify authorizing a sufficiently massive and necessary defense to these communications-driven activities. A little Trump window-dressing but not nearly enough. Yet in addition to the obvious enhancement to their political disruption of American politics, Russia is also playing a diabolical economic game. They have actually learned how to harness our own technology, our own social media platforms, to wreak havoc everywhere.

Writing for the June 25th The Cipher Brief,  Boris Zilberman, deputy director of congressional relations and a Russia analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the author of  ‘Kaspersky and Beyond:  Understanding Russia’s Approach to Cyber -Enabled Economic Warfare’ explains:

“Russia knows how to spread chaos and outrage in American politics, but Russia may pose a far greater threat to the U.S. economy and the infrastructure it depends on. The president’s Council of Economic Advisers estimates that hostile cyber actions against American private industry cost the U.S. economy as much as $100 billion per year.  The U.S. Treasury Department recently sanctioned a range of Russian companies and individuals for ‘working at the behest of the Russian Federation and its military and intelligence units to increase Russia’s offensive cyber capabilities.’ What the U.S. now faces is not just an economic threat or an information warfare threat, but a direct challenge to our national security from cyber-enabled economic warfare (CEEW), a concerted effort to target the pillars of the U.S. economy to undermine Washington’s ability to defend its citizens and project power abroad.

“While the U.S. must work harder to protect its political system from Russian influence operations, an emphasis on the electoral impact of cyberattacks should not obscure their significance as a form of CEEW. Russia’s 2007 attacks on Estonia may be one of the earliest cases of cyber-enabled economic warfare. One of the most alarming components of the widespread DDoS and malware attacks was the sustained assault on Estonia’s largest bank, which temporarily had to cease operation and shut down ATM access. A decade later, when Russian hackers crippled the Ukrainian electric grid, too many experts focused on how the attacks made Kiev look, while overlooking adverse economic effects that undermined Ukraine’s national security.

“Cyber-enabled economic warfare is hardwired into the Russian legal system. It’s no accident that Russian law establishes the Federal Security Service (FSB)—the successor to the KGB—as the licensing authority for encryption activities. By design, the laws and regulations governing information systems, telecommunications, and encryption give the Kremlin and its security services tools to consolidate power internally and engage in aggressive activities abroad. The FSB can even require private companies to provide direct assistance to its online endeavors at home and abroad. Perhaps with this in mind, the European Union recently called on its members to ban malicious technology and telecommunications equipment and software including products from [Russia’s notorious] Kaspersky Lab…

“To inform the U.S. approach to countering Russian CEEW, the intelligence community should evaluate Russian methods and intentions more closely: To what extent is the Kremlin supporting the establishment and expansion of Russian companies for the express purpose of gaining access to the IT networks of its adversaries? What do they intend to do with that access? Is Moscow forcibly grafting information and espionage operations onto otherwise private companies? Are Russian venture capital firms’ investment strategies in Silicon Valley leading to potential influence and access to sensitive information and technology?

“There are practical steps the U.S. government should be implementing in the meantime. For instance, the U.S. Computer Emergency Readiness Team within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) should create a watch list of software companies believed to be acting on behalf of, or are being used by, adversarial states in ways that pose a security risk to U.S. entities. The team already provides timely information on key security vulnerabilities and as such could host a similar watch list. DHS should also extend its ban on Kaspersky Lab software to include Kaspersky code embedded in the products of other companies…

“Our adversaries are today using what can generously be described as coercive mercantilism as an instrument of national power. For a nation that is the leading bastion of free market economics, this threat is particularly potent. Nations like Russia and China are using and augmenting their own technological sectors at the expense of U.S. national security and economic power. By identifying the threats and taking actions to mitigate their impact – largely by plugging the holes that exist in our own system – we can better ensure that our adversaries’ efforts to undermine the United States will fail.” We are obviously vulnerable, but we have a president willing to place his image and political power above that of the nation. And that fact alone will come back to haunt all of us.

I’m Peter Dekom, and sitting back and watching a master media manipulator have his way with his constituency, serving their vision and values at the expense of everyone else, is a particularly terrifying way to watch a rather dramatic unraveling of the American democracy.