Rising Turkish dictator-wannabe, Recep Erdogan,
appears victorious in an election that not only gave him the newly-created
“presidency” but a clear pathway to consolidating increasing power under his
aegis. For us, it seems that Turkey’s role in NATO is unlikely to continue.
Bye-bye. As Donald Trump’s proclivity to declare tariffs drives our allies and
frenemies farther away, as his inhumane immigration policies (including
denigrating constitutionally-mandated “due process”) embarrass our allies and
create increasing distance, we become more and more an isolated rogue state.
Our allies are slowly pulling away from us.
The signs of the resulting growing economic chaos are
beginning to come to light here as well. U.S. motorcycle-maker Harley Davidson
is moving some of its production facilities overseas to avoid Trump’s steel and
aluminum tariffs, and U.S. soybean and sorghum farmers are prepared as China
simply stops buying their goods in retaliation. Prices are plunging in that
world.
As Trump threatens European Union car manufacturers
with a 20% flat out tariff, most of us are unaware that a zero-car-tariff has
been in negotiation for some time with the EU. But Trump’s need to rub
international leaders’ faces in his demands does not sit well with any major power
on earth. Zero. They either are antagonized by such egotistical grandstanding
or are simply taking advantage of an insecure leader who simply does not
understand international politics. Either way, it’s really bad for most of us,
even as Gallop polls show Trump’s highest level of popularity with his main
constituency: 90% of the GOP solidly stands behind him.
As Trump’s tweets insult Democrats, blaming them for
anything he disagrees with, as Democrats encourage businesses to stop doing
business with higher level Trump appointees and spokespeople, civility has left
the building and is unlikely to return anytime soon. Donald Trump at this point
is what he is; he represents his supporters and literally no one else.
Democrats know that and some have tried, rather unsuccessfully, to trade barbs
with the President. Donald Trump thrives through polarizing the nation,
denigrating the opposition and blaming them for anything gone awry. As bad at
this trend is for our global power, prestige and influence, nothing is likely
to change in a Trumpian vision of America.
The international opprobrium heaped on the United
States doesn’t move Trump’s constituents one iota; in fact they rather enjoy
the fracas. And the more Democrats hurl retaliatory invectives at The Donald,
the more they call him on his rather blatant litany of fabrications, the more
Trump’s base, which now completely dominates the GOP, rallies behind their
iconic-leader. The only Republicans willing to challenge Trump doctrine are
lame duck Congressmen and women who are not running for reelection. Indeed,
many in the GOP are rolling in the joy of a robust economy and a very low rate
of unemployment… all being credited to the President and his policies.
But if those tariffs, and the resulting trade war, continue
to blunt Americans trying to making money overseas or who need imports to be
profitable, at some time, the steamroller high-flying economy, that foreign
negativity will invade the domestic body politic. It is a calculated risk for
Donald Trump that he can control those trade wars in advance of the November
mid-terms, keeping the U.S. economy in top form, a harbinger of good news for
Republicans who are trying to push immigration issues aside. If the trade war
provokes a recession or a significant increase in unemployment, there will be a
very different story come November.
The irreconcilable differences that have split this
nation into factions incapable of compromise, the underlying Trump-practice of
keeping your enemies on the defensive, may work well politically for the
President here, as long as the economy holds, but that degree of instability
also creates a soft underbelly of vulnerability for our enemies, particularly
Putin’s Russia, to exploit.
That the “Russian connection” is the focus of the
Mueller Justice Department probe, that Trump has denied that Russia interfered
with our 2016 election or favored him with a powerful anti-Clinton
hacking/disinformation campaign, only make it easier for the Russians to
continue their efforts to continue to destabilize the United States. By denying
the Russians are doing anything, Trump cannot justify authorizing a
sufficiently massive and necessary defense to these communications-driven
activities. A little Trump window-dressing but not nearly enough. Yet in
addition to the obvious enhancement to their political disruption of American
politics, Russia is also playing a diabolical economic game. They have actually
learned how to harness our own technology, our own social media platforms, to
wreak havoc everywhere.
Writing for the June 25th The Cipher Brief, Boris Zilberman, deputy director of
congressional relations and a Russia analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies and the author of ‘Kaspersky
and Beyond: Understanding Russia’s
Approach to Cyber -Enabled Economic Warfare’ explains:
“Russia knows how to spread chaos and outrage in
American politics, but Russia may pose a far greater threat to the U.S. economy
and the infrastructure it depends on. The president’s Council of Economic
Advisers estimates that hostile cyber actions against American private industry
cost the U.S. economy as much as $100 billion per year. The U.S. Treasury Department recently
sanctioned a range of Russian companies and individuals for ‘working at the
behest of the Russian Federation and its military and intelligence units to
increase Russia’s offensive cyber capabilities.’ What the U.S. now faces is not
just an economic threat or an information warfare threat, but a direct
challenge to our national security from cyber-enabled economic warfare (CEEW),
a concerted effort to target the pillars of the U.S. economy to undermine
Washington’s ability to defend its citizens and project power abroad.
“While the U.S. must work harder to protect its
political system from Russian influence operations, an emphasis on the
electoral impact of cyberattacks should not obscure their significance as a
form of CEEW. Russia’s 2007 attacks on Estonia may be one of the earliest cases
of cyber-enabled economic warfare. One of the most alarming components of the
widespread DDoS and malware attacks was the sustained assault on Estonia’s
largest bank, which temporarily had to cease operation and shut down ATM
access. A decade later, when Russian hackers crippled the Ukrainian electric
grid, too many experts focused on how the attacks made Kiev look, while
overlooking adverse economic effects that undermined Ukraine’s national
security.
“Cyber-enabled economic warfare is hardwired into the
Russian legal system. It’s no accident that Russian law establishes the Federal
Security Service (FSB)—the successor to the KGB—as the licensing authority for
encryption activities. By design, the laws and regulations governing
information systems, telecommunications, and encryption give the Kremlin and its
security services tools to consolidate power internally and engage in
aggressive activities abroad. The FSB can even require private companies to
provide direct assistance to its online endeavors at home and abroad. Perhaps
with this in mind, the European Union recently called on its members to ban
malicious technology and telecommunications equipment and software including
products from [Russia’s notorious] Kaspersky Lab…
“To inform the U.S. approach to countering Russian
CEEW, the intelligence community should evaluate Russian methods and intentions
more closely: To what extent is the Kremlin supporting the establishment and
expansion of Russian companies for the express purpose of gaining access to the
IT networks of its adversaries? What do they intend to do with that access? Is
Moscow forcibly grafting information and espionage operations onto otherwise
private companies? Are Russian venture capital firms’ investment strategies in
Silicon Valley leading to potential influence and access to sensitive information
and technology?
“There are practical steps the U.S. government should
be implementing in the meantime. For instance, the U.S. Computer Emergency
Readiness Team within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) should create a
watch list of software companies believed to be acting on behalf of, or are
being used by, adversarial states in ways that pose a security risk to U.S.
entities. The team already provides timely information on key security
vulnerabilities and as such could host a similar watch list. DHS should also
extend its ban on Kaspersky Lab software to include Kaspersky code embedded in
the products of other companies…
“Our adversaries are today using what can generously
be described as coercive mercantilism as an instrument of national power. For a
nation that is the leading bastion of free market economics, this threat is
particularly potent. Nations like Russia and China are using and augmenting
their own technological sectors at the expense of U.S. national security and
economic power. By identifying the threats and taking actions to mitigate their
impact – largely by plugging the holes that exist in our own system – we can
better ensure that our adversaries’ efforts to undermine the United States will
fail.” We are obviously vulnerable, but we have a president willing to place
his image and political power above that of the nation. And that fact alone
will come back to haunt all of us.
I’m
Peter Dekom, and sitting back and watching a master media manipulator have his
way with his constituency, serving their vision and values at the expense of
everyone else, is a particularly terrifying way to watch a rather dramatic
unraveling of the American democracy.
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