In a War between the U.S. and Iran, Who Fires the First Shot?

To Iranian President Rouhani: 

NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!

8:24 PM - 22 Jul 2018  Donald Trump Tweet.

There’s little doubt that Iran is a regional rogue state and troublemaker. Their government is not particularly popular with their own people. Their censorship and religious dress requirements along with a deep mismanagement of the local economy leave their people socially repressed and economically depressed. But protestors are severely punished, some even perish. The Revolutionary Guards are harsh. The Ayatollah is unbending and the ultimate power in the nation, trumping elected representatives at every turn. But please do not assume for a second that the locals’ hatred of their leadership remotely means the people have any real affinity for the U.S. For the most part, they hate us only slightly less than the hate their own leaders.

They covet becoming the regional power, a Shiite nation (Shiites represent only about 20% of Islam) with connections and foot soldiers all over the Middle East. Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Yemen are just a partial list. In a war, they would instantly mine the Strait of Hormuz (see the map above), effectively cutting off most Middle Eastern oil from reaching Europe. Their sleeper cells all over the West, including the United States, would begin to take action. They have the potential of reigniting their nuclear weapons program at the drop of a hat, particularly if the United States forces Europe to stop buying their oil effective on September 1^st. Do we attack their mainland? With what? From where? What’s the trigger?

Donald Trump has now authorized a U.S.-controlled media campaign against local Iranian politicians and officials and other anti-Iranian policies (like the new sanctions). “In Washington, U.S. officials familiar with the matter told Reuters that the Trump administration had launched an offensive of speeches and online communications meant to foment unrest and help pressure Iran to end its nuclear program and its support of militant groups.” The Cipher Brief, July 23^rd.

The goal is to turn the country against the leadership, perhaps fomenting rebellion or at least influencing local elections. Hmmmm. Where have we seen this before? But it’s ok, because The Donald is ordering it. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani told Trump was begging for trouble if he made good on that threat, saying, “war with Iran is the mother of all wars.” Trump’s response is above. Sabre-rattling… again. And the probably answer to the title question just might be Israel, acting as our surrogate.

Russia has sidled up to Iran with military aid and a mutual agreement on oil production. So once again, the United States and its newly anointed best-friend Russia might duke it out through surrogates. Last time, the U.S. supported the rebels in Syria against the Assad government. Russia supported Assad with vastly more money, arms, and even fighting men than did the U.S. for the rebels. The Assad regime is almost finished obliterating the rebels, content to have used Russian-supplied barrel bombs, planes and poison gas on its own people. We lost, by the way.

This time, it will be Israel for the U.S., and Iran for Russia. We might get involved, but probably not. If bluster turns to violent military confrontation. Trump does very little in the way of real warfare, however, if you haven’t noticed. Lots of bluffing and posturing. Very little real military action, which turns out to be what should happen. Nothing.

Only July 22^nd, a cadre of very successful and very patriotic U.S.-citizen-escapees from Iran – professors, lawyers, doctors, business owners, etc. – took out a full-page ad in the Los Angeles Times admonishing the ill-informed Trump administration that if it mounted its threatened anti-leadership media campaign in Iran, that leadership would use that fact to rally the people to their support. It would give Rouhani, the Ayatollah and the Revolutionary Guards even greater justification to clamp down. In short, such a Trump effort would produce exactly the opposite effect.

The July 23^rd The Cipher Brief (citing Reuters) explains the background of this latest dispute: “Iran faces increased U.S. pressure and looming sanctions after Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from a 2015 international deal over Iran’s nuclear program.

“Addressing a gathering of Iranian diplomats, Rouhani said: ‘Mr Trump, don’t play with the lion’s tail, this would only lead to regret,’ the state news agency IRNA reported… ‘America should know that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars,’ Rouhani said, leaving open the possibility of peace between the two countries, at odds since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“‘You are not in a position to incite the Iranian nation against Iran’s security and interests,” Rouhani said, in an apparent reference to reported efforts by Washington to destabilize Iran’s Islamic government…

“Current and former U.S. officials said the campaign painted Iranian leaders in a harsh light, at times using information that is exaggerated or contradicts other official pronouncements, including comments by previous administrations… Rouhani scoffed at Trump’s threat to halt Iranian oil exports and said Iran has a dominant position in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping waterway.

“‘Anyone who understands the rudiments of politics doesn’t say ‘we will stop Iran’s oil exports’...we have been the guarantor of the regional waterway’s security throughout history,’ Rouhani said, cited by the semi-official ISNA news agency… Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday backed Rouhani’s suggestion that Iran may block Gulf oil exports if its own exports are halted.

“Rouhani’s apparent threat earlier this month to disrupt oil shipments from neighboring countries came in reaction to efforts by Washington to force all countries to stop buying Iranian oil… Iranian officials have in the past threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for any hostile U.S. action.” Hmmm. The “mother of all peace”? Now that’s an interesting backdoor invitation if I have ever heard one. Hint! Does Donald Trump get hints? It’s hard to imagine a more ineffective and arrogant campaign than that promised by Donald Trump. How do bullies respond to being bullied? Precisely.

I’m Peter Dekom, and a complete ignorance of history, regional culture and statistical facts are not exactly the best foundation upon which to base a diplomatic strategy.