Shootin’ Turkey before Thanksgiving

There’s no question that Turkey is even more of an odd-man-out than boisterous-Trump-America when it comes to NATO. The recent election of Recep “Strongman” Erdogan (under a new non-parliamentary from of government; he had been Prime Minister before… since 2003) represented a major step away from democratic principles and much closer towards Islamic conservatism. His blanket police sweeps, justified by a failed military coup, have led to the arrest and incarceration of thousands of journalists, soldiers and political opponents under very serious accusations of treason, terrorism and other comparable felonies with serious consequences (even the death penalty).

It was such a sweep that resulted in the arrest of an American missionary, Andrew Brunson, under what the Trump administration believes are false charges. “The 50-year-old evangelical pastor from North Carolina had long been based in the coastal city of Izmir. Arrested in 2016 after a failed coup, he is accused of being allied with Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish cleric based in Pennsylvania who Erdogan says masterminded the attempted takeover by the military. Some political analysts have suggested that Erdogan is holding Brunson to put pressure on the U.S. to extradite Gulen.” Los Angeles Times, August 17^th.

The United States demanded Brunson’s release, but both Erdogan and the Turkish courts refused. The Trump administration retaliated, catering to his evangelical base… not by imposing sanctions, but by electing to use trade barriers – doubling the existing prohibitory steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey – as a political tool. That use of an economic weapon purely to enforce political coercion shook the diplomatic world. Didn’t Donald Trump understand the difference between an economic tariff and a political sanction (that may have economic consequences), they asked? And why didn’t Trump even try some backroom horse-trading that would have allowed Erdogan to save face? After all, Turkey is an essential NATO launching platform from U.S. bases against terrorist targets in Syria.

Turkey’s economy, already slumping from massive borrowings to finance both top-of-the-line infrastructure (a truly spectacular, over-the-top airport, is a prime example) and overly aggressive corporate expansion – the currency had fallen by 40%, took another massive plunge based on the impact of that escalated tariff. The impact on Turkey was particularly devastating because all that debt had to be repaid in dollars, when the Turkish currency (the Lira) had already fallen so hard against the dollar. The drop also impacted U.S. financial institutions that had provided much of the borrowings, and generally sent values across developing nations into the toilet. U.S. bank stocks plummeted.

But instead of kowtowing to Trump’s bully tactics, President Erdogan used the American economic attack as the primary cause of all of Turkey’s economic woes. A double-down, Trump-style? Erdogan immediate cozied up to Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who was obviously delighted at this disharmony within his hated NATO enemy. Erdogan also used this tariff war to rally fellow Islamic conservatives to his aid and made anyone speaking otherwise even more at risk for arrest. Turks began tripping all over themselves to prove their loyalty, despite the dire economic straits.

Turkey’s social media became a showplace of loyalty to Erdogan. “Erdogan retaliated with his call for a consumer boycott, and then on Thursday [8/16] issued a decree raising tariffs on U.S. cars to 120%, alcohol to 140% and tobacco to 60%.

“Online campaigns have offered local alternatives to U.S. products: Torku food products instead of Nestle, iskender kebab in place of McDonald’s and Uludag soft drinks over Coca-Cola.

“Turkish Airlines — 49% of which is owned by the government — announced this week it would stop advertising on Google and other U.S.-based platforms. The Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, which oversees government development projects, said it would ban the use of U.S. construction materials…

“[Online loyalists created their personal support videos.] One video [pictured above] shows a man smashing iPhones with a hammer. ‘This is for our president,’ he declares… Another shows men burning dollar bills or using them to blow their noses.

“Both videos have been shared widely on social media in Turkey as the country’s trade war with the U.S. escalates and ordinary citizens and businesses express solidarity with their government. The sentiment has been boiled down to a meme trending on Twitter: ‘Don’t let the U.S. earn money.’

“Economists are doubtful that Turkish consumers can do much damage, given their reliance on American products.” LA Times. Turkey is just a relatively small economic fish in the global ocean, but even they look at Trump-America with disdain.

In the end, the Trump modus operands is to bully to force a negotiation, which was his main business tactic. But this rather primitive and arcane business practice has not fared well in international politics. It allows true enemies of the United States to pretend to react to such efforts but, in the end, get so much more from the process than any American gain. North Korea and China are prime examples of this method, forcing Trump to declare as victorious minor concessions and unenforceable words without substance. Some lesser nations may fall to Trump’s ploy, but the biggest players are unmoved.

His base might buy these as victories, but this “diplomatic technique” has made the United States the laughing stock of the international community, isolating the U.S. and losing us valuable ground in protecting and enhancing American interests around the world. The United States loses credibility and influence every day as the world increasing learns to do work-arounds against U.S. bullying or simply by ignoring us completely.

I’m Peter Dekom, and in my role as a negotiator in entertainment transactions, let me just say how much I love narcissistic bullies on the other side of my dealings.