Government Statistics – Finding the Truth

One of the tricks of discerning real from “spin-driven” hyperbole is to look at the “other indicators.” If you are an avid reader of ye olde blogs, you know that my take on the government’s grand unemployment numbers and hot GDP numbers has been to focus on how the top earners and wealthiest segment in the United States have made so much more money since the Great Recession that the economy as a whole and hence averages are severely enhanced even if the only folks making more are at the highest rungs on the economic ladder.  

We know that 70% of Americans have not seen an increase in inflation/cost-adjusted earnings in four decades. Those statistics come from the same government agencies that are hyping an economy that “has never been better.” True if you are a one-percenter or close. Otherwise, not so much. That unemployment rate still leaves the under-educated and under-trained out of the job market altogether. They’re not even in those unemployment numbers; they are just gone! Those seemingly favorable unemployment numbers don’t bring back obsolete industries; coal remains in precipitous decline for example. Trade wars also do not create jobs; they decimate jobs. 

For those who wonder where our tax dollars are really going, I can tell you one place were every single taxpayer is paying through the nose: the national debt. And since we know that the massive corporate tax cut has brought a mere 8% of the net economic improvement in corporate financial wealth back into the economy for capital improvement expenditures and creating new jobs and we know that only 3.7% of workers actually got even a trickle of new money from their now-financially-enhanced corporate employer, exactly what are most taxpayers really getting? Almost all the rest: Dividends that only make a difference if you have tons of stock? Share value increases, if you have enough stock, from corporations’ using those savings to buy back their own shares from the marketplace? Or debt?!

We were told by the GOP lawmakers who foisted this giant tax scam on “the rest of us” that the trickle down of economic values would pay for the tax cut. It didn’t, but the spin was so successful in making people think that trickle down actually trickled down that GOP lawmakers are proposing another tax cut. So how do we pay for such tax cuts if the economy doesn’t actually grow enough to justify that tax “reform”? We borrow it to allow the rich guys the economic breaks, but the debt has to be paid back and interest serviced by all of us.

The September 11th Washington Post, using the government’s own numbers, explains how bad it really is for most of us: “The U.S. budget deficit is reaching levels that are abnormally high for a robust economy, and lawmakers from both parties are proposing ideas that would make the deficit swell even further.

“The government spent $895 billion more than it brought in from taxes and other revenue sources during the past 11 months, the Congressional Budget Office said this week, a 33 percent increase from one year before.

“Typically, the deficit shrinks during strong economic times, as the need for costly government support wanes and tax revenue rises. In 2000, the last time the unemployment rate was at its current level of 3.9 percent, the government ran a surplus, meaning tax revenue eclipsed all spending.

“The dynamic is much different now.

“Corporate tax receipts fell 30 percent in the past 11 months, the CBO said, precipitated by the large reduction in rates from the massive tax overhaul passed by Congress last year. Spending levels have risen sharply as a result of a bipartisan agreement to shed budget caps put in place to maintain fiscal discipline and pour more money into both military and domestic programs.

“‘It’s not just irresponsible, it’s wildly irresponsible,’ said retired senator Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), who added that lawmakers are pushing the deficit higher because of political expediency.

“‘If you are seeking elective office, the hardest thing in the world is to say, ‘I’m going to raise your taxes or cut spending on popular programs,’ ’ he said.

“Among the Republicans, the loudest voices recently have come from outside Congress... ‘With a booming economy, full employment, a soaring stock market and record asset values, we should be shrinking the deficit, not growing it, Mitt Romney, a Republican and Senate candidate in Utah, wrote on his campaign website Monday [9/10]. He said other conservatives have largely been “silent” on the issue since President Trump took office.

“Yet there are signs the borrowing binge has only begun... Leading House Republicans proposed an additional $646 billion in tax cuts this week — a number that could grow to roughly $2 trillion over a decade — and a growing number of prominent Democrats have proposed expanding access to government-sponsored health care, which could add trillions more.”

We don’t fix our crumbling infrastructure. We do not create affordable healthcare. Tuition and student debt are skyrocketing, but our educational standards are stagnant or declining. Workers in the private sector have watched their share of the pie plunge as unions were pushed away. 6.7% of private sector workers are represented by unions today, but those working without benefits in the United States is growing very fast:

“In the U.S., the number of gig workers (though hard to fully quantify) is estimated to represent around 34 per cent of the American workforce. By 2020, that number is expected to reach 43 per cent.

“There certainly are benefits for gig workers — your day can be more flexible, you can take advantage (sometimes) of things as simple as good weather. Heck, for some jobs, you can work in your bathrobe.

“But you also do your own payroll, manage your own taxes (remember to pay those instalments), and try not to turn down a job — because the employer can just go to someone else and never come back. (That’s the biggest fiction, the argument that you can sit back and say, ‘No, I don’t feel like it today.’)

“It’s more than a sweet deal for employers. They don’t have to keep staff during slow periods, and can ramp their workforce up and down depending on how much work they have.

“Your employer doesn’t have to worry about calculating the number of vacation days you have left — you don’t have any. The employer doesn’t have to worry about health plans or severance, about union negotiations or wrongful dismissal suits. Employers can assign unreasonable workloads, and shorten lead-times. Sometimes for the unfortunate gig employee — actually, often — work flows in from a number of clients simultaneously.

“And they don’t ever have to fire you... They can just stop calling. It’s that precarious.” The Telegram, September 7th. 

In the end, for most Americans, the economy is an unmitigated disaster. Yet I read even liberal mass media tell Democrats that this “solid economy” will make Republicans hard to beat in November. Really? Even if the economy is only good for the very top earners, only the truly wealthy? And crap for most of us? Seriously! How do you replace those making mincemeat out of our economy when everyone thinks its caviar? It’s work, but if you understand what the numbers really mean and you look at what really matters, the picture is clear. Very, very clear. We just need the Democrats running to understand real from unreal.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I hope that with real numbers and hard facts that I present to you all the time, you can explain to at least a few suckers who think the economy is great... why it really isn’t unless you are very, very rich.