Foreign Policy – Big Talk, Little to Show for It

With the exception of a couple of autocrats in the Eastern Bloc, Trump’s insulting and shoot-from-the-hip-fact-denying style has alienated both the leaders and the majority of the people in the whole of Europe. His whatever-Netanyahu-wants relationship with Israel has increased the volatility in the Palestinian dispute, seriously amping up the risk factors for terrorism and armed conflict. If you care about Israelis and their safety, the threat of ultra-violence is near condition red.

Trump’s unbridled support for Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (“MBS” – pictured above left at the recent G-20 Summit with Putin in Buenos Aires, Argentina – in a grinning exchange between two autocrats who both got the better of Donald Trump), someone our C.I.A. tells us ordered the brutal assassination of an American resident and Saudi journalist at a Saudi consulate in Istanbul, made for several awkward moments at the summit. Trump’s denial of an obvious MBS-ordered assassination also has alienated congressional power brokers on both sides of the aisle. American values no longer stand for justice and human rights. We keep sending Saudi Arabia arms that are being used to decimate Yemeni civilians while refusing to help feed the hundreds of thousands of Yemeni children dying from the resulting starvation.

While Trump “cancelled” his scheduled G-20 meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, the meeting happened anyway… an “informal” conversation they said. That non-cancellation had been Trump’s tepid response to Russia’s egregious aggression against Ukraine naval vessels in international waters.  As Russia moved to seal off the Ukraine’s international sea-lane access through the Kersh Strait, Ukraine faced becoming landlocked. Trump did nothing of substance to counter this outrageous Russian attack of Ukrainian vessels.  What a tremendous message to the rest of the world as to how truly weak and amorally-driven a seeming bully-American really is… a paper tiger under investigation in his own country for putting his business interests above the clear priorities and needs of the United States. Message to autocrats: do whatever you want; America does not care. Trump loves ya, baby!

He had a “working dinner” (above right) on December 1^st with Chinese President Xi Jinping also at that G-20 Summit, but if you are waiting for another Trump massive victory speech, well, it seems the tariffs wars continue, albeit some of the harshest assessments have been delayed. The real winners – temporarily – are China and the American consumers; Trump agreed to postpone for 90 days the imposition of additional U.S. tariffs slated to have begun on January 1^st – on $200 billion of mostly Chinese-made consumer goods – while the parties negotiate. In turn, China agreed to an unenforceable agreement to buy an unspecified amount of U.S. farm and other products. No agreement by then, and those tariffs kick in at nasty levels (25%). Trump also apparently tried to negotiate a separate trade deal with Germany’s Angela Merkel, knowing (or forgetting?) that Merkel cannot negotiate other than through the European Union. Oh well.

Trump had already alienated NATO-ally Turkey (see my November 30^th, A Turkey for Which We Have No Thanksgiving, blog) most recently to placate the evangelical community with no discernible benefit for our nation as a whole, continues to threaten Mexico (to close the entire border) over their inability to stop of caravan of non-Mexicans that their own federales are struggling to contain and he still harasses leaders in desperately poor Central American republics struggling to counter local gangs and drug cartels formed primarily to satisfy the demand for illicit narcotics in the United States.

He’s also sticking to his climate change denial as well (all the countries at the G-20, except the U.S., reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris climate accord). All of these actions and inactions have serious short and long-term repercussions for the United States, and it could all get very much worse very soon.

Trump’s international economic policies – with severe domestic consequences from his global tariff war – have failed to generate the kind of tilted-heavily-toward-U.S. workers trade results he promised. Instead Midwest farmers are facing ruinous financials as Trump’s temporary subsidy to make up for Chinese soybean import cutbacks run out. Consumer prices are quivering and ready to explode upwards in January as the next set of tariff increases with China kick in. Layoffs and slowdowns in construction and in U.S. companies that manufacture steel and/or aluminum-based durables are accelerating as the American stock markets have pretty much erased all of their 2018 gains. Still his base stands behind him because they still believe he can deliver on his impossible promise to restore those obsolete blue-collar jobs in a world that has long-since moved on. He hasn’t yet. And he won’t.

He is threatening to let the federal government shut down if he doesn’t get congressional funding for his wall as well. Hey Donald, why are you asking Congress for money; you told us you’d make Mexico pay for that wall? Hmmmm.

But what about the President’s taking credit for denuclearizing North Korea? That was a huge Trump win, right? “Nearly six months after President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un embraced at a historic Singapore summit and made vague promises of peace and prosperity, talks have flatlined and Pyongyang has taken no significant steps to reduce its nuclear arsenal or production facilities.

“Fears of all-out war clearly have eased in Northeast Asia since the two leaders stopped trading crude insults and invective, as they had in the months before the June 12 summit. And U.S. officials point to confidence-building measures, including North Korea’s suspension since last spring of additional nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests.

“But denuclearization, the primary U.S. goal, appears as distant as ever, analysts and diplomats say. The on-again, off-again diplomatic process appears to have foundered and experts say North Korea is secretly expanding its nuclear and missile capabilities, just as it has during previous U.S. attempts to negotiate with the regime since the mid-1990s.

“In the latest dust-up, on Nov. 7, North Korean officials abruptly called off a planned meeting in New York with Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo and threatened to resume nuclear testing unless the Trump administration lifts sanctions. Working-level meetings also have ground to a halt, State Department officials said.

“Kim may prefer to wait for a second summit with Trump, who told the United Nations on Sept. 24 that he would meet with the North Korean leader again ‘very soon.’…  The North Koreans ‘don’t want to deal with bureaucrats. They think they can get the best deal possible’ directly from Trump, said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst specializing in the Korean peninsula who now is at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington.

“Pyongyang has stepped up pressure in other ways. The state-run news agency reported this month that Kim personally oversaw the testing of what it called an ‘ultra-modern,’ cutting-edge tactical weapon that took seven years to develop. The news agency provided no details of the alleged weapon.

“More significantly, in August, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that North Korea was taking action consistent with enrichment of uranium and construction at its main nuclear site. The U.N. nuclear watchdog agency called the ‘further development’ of the nuclear program ‘a cause for grave concern.’” Los Angeles Times, November 30^th.

We are a rogue state, drifting without rules or values, losing the respect of people all over the world. Our economy is beginning to sputter, prescription drugs and healthcare costs are soaring directly-related to Trump’s anti-ACA policies, consumer prices are rising with big layoffs already here. All this from the man who gave himself an “A+” for presidential achievement because there was nothing higher. Are we tired of winning yet?

              I’m Peter Dekom, and the political and economic damage Trump policies have inflicted on economy and our global power and influence may be never be completely reversed.