It’s easy to miss huge stories of global
significance to the United States in the tsunami of the media reportage of the
Trump-storm of news. But after trillions
of dollars of missteps in Iraq and Afghanistan – with absolutely nothing,
perhaps way less than nothing, gained for the United States – Donald Trump is saddled
with a continuation of a war without seeming end, one he doesn’t seem to know how
to “solve.” We’ve long-since lost 60%-Shiite Iraq within the hegemony of 90%+
Shiite Iran. Now we are about to pull out of the failed state we imposed in
Afghanistan.
The same kind of Saudi-funded fundamentalists
who staff al Qaeda and other comparable Sunni terrorist organizations are
equally present in the Taliban, who dominate Afghanistan. In fairness to Mr.
Trump, he didn’t start this war – that honor lies with George W. Bush – and Trump
seems to be struggling with how to end this debacle with any form of dignity…
the same issue that dragged through Barrack Obama’s entire presidency. Here’s
our reality check.
The incumbent Afghan Taliban have
opposed us and the government we put in place in Kabul every step of the way. That
“democratic” system we imposed when we drove the Taliban out of power in
Afghanistan in 2001, according to the Transparency International Corruption
Perception Index, is listed at 177 among 180 nations presented in terms of
corruption. Only Syria, Somalia and South Sudan register as more corrupt.
Warlords and Taliban have slowly regained territory, but it is the Taliban who
control or contest the government’s hold on the bulk of the rest of the country
as the above map reflects.
“The Taliban ruled Afghanistan until
the U.S. drove it from power in 2001. The story of how the resurgent militants
have gained the upper hand in a strategically vital province illustrates the
crisis facing the Afghanistan government as well as the Trump administration,
which has been grasping for a way to end the war and for the first time
considering direct peace talks with the insurgents…
“As early as 2015, shortly after the
last U.S. forces left Ghazni province under a NATO drawdown, the Taliban
controlled more territory there than the Afghan government did, according to
the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a Kabul-based think tank.
“The insurgents mostly confined themselves
to rural areas, collecting taxes and adjudicating disputes. But starting this
April, Taliban fighters began seizing the centers of ‘safe’ districts close to
the provincial capital, the country’s sixth-largest city, about 80 miles
southwest of Kabul.
“In most cases, fighters withdrew
from the district centers — which house the offices of local administrators —
as Afghan forces retook control within hours or days… But the attacks
reinforced a message that has become abundantly clear in recent years: With
nearly half of Afghanistan’s people living in areas where the government
doesn’t have full control, the Taliban could attack anywhere…
“Afghan President Ashraf Ghani
recently acknowledged that more than 28,000 Afghan soldiers and police had been
killed since 2015 — a figure that surpassed even gloomier estimates. (About
2,200 U.S. service members have been killed in Afghanistan since the 2001
invasion.)” Los Angeles Times, December
1st.
In addition to Saudi donors and
extracting “taxes” from those within its territorial grasp, the Taliban have
benefitted greatly from the massive fields of opium-laden poppies as one of the
greatest sources of high-grade heroin on earth. Taliban fighters also commonly extort
locals for food and shelter, cut power lines in cities where electricity is an
essential commodity, and generally get what they demand. Money and arms do not
seem to be much of a problem for this relatively well-funded group of Sunni extremists.
Life in Taliban strongholds or in
contested areas is sheer hell for the local residents, mostly shopkeepers,
shepherds and farmers. “In August, the militants attacked the city of Ghazni,
unleashing four days of fighting that left more than 100 Afghan soldiers and
police dead. It took a barrage of U.S. airstrikes and the arrival of several
dozen U.S. special operations troops — some of whom were injured in the
fighting — to take back the city… But the Taliban was only getting started…
“For more than a year, a group of
shepherds in Jaghori, a peaceful highland district of apple orchards and
sloping hills in western Ghazni, had been talking up the Taliban… ‘They were
spreading rumors about how well equipped and dangerous the Taliban are now,’
said Aref Ahmadi, a 42-year-old farmer whose family faced threats from the
group starting in 2016, when a photo of his 5-year-old son wearing a homemade
jersey of Argentine soccer star Lionel Messi went viral.
“Jaghori was long known as one of the
country’s safest districts. Made up mainly of ethnic Hazaras — a close-knit
Shiite Muslim minority that has been persecuted by the Taliban and other
extremists — it avoided bloodshed in part by allowing the militants to pass
through their farmlands if they didn’t attack the local population.
“But in early November, Ahmadi
recalled, the pro-Taliban shepherds suddenly disappeared. A couple of days
later, they returned in the company of marauding Taliban fighters, pointing out
the houses of pro-government militia commanders and Hazara civilians who
possessed weapons, he said.
“The Taliban assault on Jaghori
killed dozens of Afghan soldiers and police, and spread to the neighboring
district of Malistan. Thousands of residents fled to Kabul, the Afghan capital,
and other cities… When protesters marched on the presidential palace in Kabul
to condemn the attacks, a suicide bomber struck, killing at least six.
“Afghan officials say they have
regained control of the districts, but only about 300 families have returned,
said Mohammad Arif Noori, a spokesman for the provincial governor… ‘The
government has told us to return in order to receive aid, but I can’t take the
chance,’ said Ahmadi, who fled to Kabul with his family. ‘There’s no guarantee
that the district won’t fall again.’” LA Times. So what is really happening
behind the scenes?
President Trump’s special envoy to
Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, is on the verge of meeting with Taliban leaders in
the neutral country of Qatar. The Taliban are ramping up their attacks in the
Afghan countryside to be able to negotiate from a greater position of strength;
they are acutely aware of Trump’s predilection to announce great political
victories even when in fact such braggadocio covers up failure. They seem to
believe that Trump’s yearning for an announcement of the total withdrawal of
American forces from Afghanistan will force that result before the U.S.
Presidential elections in 2020.
The Taliban are already smacking
their lips, as the “democratic” government, despised by most Afghanis because
of corruption, continues to struggle: “There are other problems in Kabul.
Results from October’s nationwide parliamentary elections — which weren’t held
in Ghazni because of insecurity — have yet to be announced because of
widespread problems with new biometric devices used to verify voter identities.
“The chaos has led to speculation
that the presidential election scheduled for next April will be postponed,
dealing another blow to the legitimacy of Ghani’s government and strengthening
the Taliban… ‘The Taliban are looking for political fragmentation in Kabul so
they can engage directly with individual political groups, and they could
become the major force,’ said Haroun Mir, a political analyst.” LA Times. Whatever
the result, we already know it will not be good for the United States, our
power and influence or for peace and stability in the Muslim world.
I’m Peter Dekom, and when you consider the
chaos in Syria, the escalation of tensions between Palestinians and Israeli
fomented by Trump policies, the rise of Iranian power (absorbing Iraq within
its sphere of influence), our loss of global credibility in supporting a
murderous regime in Saudi Arabia, and the added pressure of a failed
Afghanistan, we have greatly contributed to regional instability and gained
nothing in return.
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