Gas Lite, If You Dane to Go There

There are so many variables at work in mainstream Europe’s growing disdain for all things Trump. They are deeply disturbed by the events precipitated by Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the six-party nuclear containment accord over Iran), the fact that Trump only pulled away from a “cocked and loaded” (Trump’s own description) June 21^st out-and-out attack on Iranian military facilities ten minutes before launch (the beginning of a war?), and that he has and continues to escalate sanctions – even against European allies and companies that still honor that treaty – for anyone trading with Iran.

They find his climate change policies, particularly his encouragement to reestablish coal as a major power generating fuel, bizarre if not simply dangerous. His bully tactics, his blind support for Israel’s Netanyahu that seems to be further destabilizing the Middle East and his blatant support for local populists put him on the wrong side of history to most Western European nations. And his trade war with China has negative economic ripples even in Europe.

The most interesting changes in European politics place Germany as the new leader of the free world. Recent massive shifts in the left-of-center environmentalist Greens Party (which now seems to have the most voting constituents of any German party) have signaled that taking American considerations into mainstream EU policymaking is hardly determinative anymore. Europe, to put it mildly, is choosing to go it alone, no longer counting on America’s commitments to NATO and making economic policies in direct contravention to American wishes. Germany is at the forefront of opposing coal-fired and nuclear power plants, willing to accept a transitional reliance on natural gas as it ramps up its renewable energy infrastructure.

America wants to be that supplier of natural gas, if they cannot sell abundant American coal that no one seems to want. Germany would rather take that gas from America’s natural enemy, Russia, than play in Trump’s economic backyard. Germans seem to fear Americans’ using trade deals and sanctions against them – particularly in light of escalating U.S. sanctions against nations and companies doing business with Tehran – more than they fear the manipulative machinations of Putin’s Russia. The result: Russia’s near-completion of Gazprom’s $11 billion 735-mile undersea Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia, under the Baltic, landing in northern Germany.

The fly in the ointment isn’t the United States and its requests, oddly enough. That issue has long-since been decided against U.S. interests. Instead, the rough spot comes from environmentally sensitive Denmark as the pipeline is scheduled to pass through their territorial waters around rocky Bornholm Island. Notwithstanding mounting pressure from the EU’s new leader, Germany, the Danes have so far refused to backdown and grant the necessary construction permits. “By doing so, Denmark has created another crack in the rift between those European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization members already divided by the pipeline’s association with Russia.

“The United States, which critics point out wants to sell energy to Western Europe itself, and many of its allies in Europe and NATO, including Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine, oppose the pipeline, saying the $11-billion project would increase Moscow’s ability to use gas supplies as a diplomatic weapon… Eastern European leaders in particular fear it will increase Moscow’s influence in the region.

“But Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, remains firm as Nord Stream 2’s strongest proponent, saying the pipeline will ensure the continent’s energy security… Project officials say more than two-thirds of the pipeline is already completed, with permission secured to construct through the maritime territories of Russia, Finland, Sweden and Germany. Only Denmark stands in its way…

“Gazprom has partnered with major European energy companies — including Germany’s Uniper and BASF’s Wintershall unit, Anglo-Dutch firm Shell, Austria’s OMV and France’s Engie — for 50% of the construction funding… Europeans, particularly Germany, worry about energy security. European gas production is set to fall by 50% over the next 20 years, even as European demand is forecast to continue at the current pace.

“The European Union already gets 50% of its gas supplies from Russia, some of it flowing through the nearly parallel Nord Stream pipeline, which was completed in 2012. Other gas comes via Soviet-era gas pipelines traveling across Ukraine… More than any other opponent of the pipeline, Ukraine fears it will be the biggest loser once Nord Stream 2 is completed.

“The proposed completion date coincides with a renewal date for Gazprom’s supply and transit deal with Ukraine. That has Ukrainians, who are at war with Russia-backed separatist militias in its eastern regions, worried.” LA Times, June 25^th. Indeed, sanction-happy Trump has even gone so far as to bully Germany and the EU: “The United States has placed sanctions on Moscow for its incursions into eastern Ukraine and annexation of Crimea and agrees that European reliance on Russian gas creates a risk… Trump has threatened sanctions on Western companies associated with the project.

“The U.S. has its own interest in overtaking Russia’s share of the European gas market via American sales of liquefied natural gas, or LNG. In recent years, America has become a global leader in LNG exports, with many of those shipments going to Europe.” LA Times.

Bottom line: if it has to, Germany will simply support a rerouting of the pipeline to avoid Danish waters. That Trump is screaming and threatening has not moved Germany one whit. An increasingly globally isolated United States has less and less influence with every passing day. Trump and his base do not seem to care. Trump’s rich corporate cronies, while not yet breaking ranks, are beginning to be concerned. Trump’s efforts are slamming them in the wallet, even as he slams the rest of the world in the environment.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and America’s escalating political and economic isolation from the rest of the world most definitely does not serve the American people’s best interests.