Radical Populist Right vs the Emerging Progressive Left

It is so strange watching Germany rise to become the most powerful global voice on earth for progressive and responsible democracy. The very nation that allowed the post-WWI financial disaster to catapult Adolph Hitler and Nazi populist nationalism to power, that exterminated Jewish scapegoats by the millions and redefined “Germany first” as true patriotism, is now the leading liberal humanistic country in the world. The dark voices of neo-Nazi patriotism are still there (the Alternative for Germany Party) but now drowned out in a rising tide of self-preservation through social responsibility. Germany’s climate-change-driven Greens Party.

In reconfigured post-WWII Germany, a multiparty state, two political parties – the more conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the left-of-center Social Democratic Party (SDP) – have been easily and consistently the only dominant political parties. The other, smaller parties (including the Greens) have had marginal influence as minority members of governing coalitions in the Bundestag (parliament) and state legislatures. Until recently, the Greens rose to represent a mere 10% of the vote. But that was then, and today the Greens vie for equal and perhaps greater representation:

“With support for the two major political parties that dominated postwar Germany melting away, the Greens party has emerged as the country’s most popular party, according to three major polls published in the last two weeks.

“Its astonishing rise to the top in Europe’s largest economy is causing political tremors in Germany and throughout the European Union, indirectly leading to the resignation this month of the leader of the Social Democrats — the minority partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government — and raising the possibility that the coalition government will collapse long before the next scheduled elections in 2021.

“The Greens had already shocked the nation on May 26 when they became the second-largest party in Germany in the European Union parliamentary elections, with 20.5% of the vote, behind Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats but well ahead of the center-left Social Democrats. Green parties now have 70 seats in the 705-seat European Parliament, up from 51.

“Green parties did unexpectedly well in other European countries as well, including Finland, France, Ireland and Luxembourg, because of spreading concerns about the climate crisis and strong resistance to anti-European Union populist movements.

“Since then, support for the Greens in Germany has risen to 27%, compared with 24% for Merkel’s party, according to a Forsa Institute poll released Saturday. Two similar leading polls in the last week also said the Greens have more support than Christian Democrats for the first time.

“In the wake of the Greens’ improbable rise to the top of the opinion polls, the party is now facing questions that its most ardent backers never dreamed of when the Greens were merely junior coalition partners with, at most, 10% of the vote: Could the Greens be the biggest party in the next German Parliament and claim the chancellor’s seat from Merkel? And which of the party’s two equal co-leaders — former novelist Robert Habeck or former trampoline competitor Annalena Baerbock — should run for high office in the next election? Both refuse to even contemplate that question now.” Los Angeles Times, June 16th.

Is this Germany’s long-simmering reaction to its own dark history? A product of one of the best educational systems in the world? Secondary education is based on either the college-prep path of Gymnasium or the highly skilled vocational path of Hauptschule, or combinations thereof, culminating in a comprehensive final exam. “Many of Germany's hundred or so institutions of higher learning charge little or no tuition by international comparison. Students usually must prove through examinations that they are qualified.

“In order to enter university, students are, as a rule, required to have passed the Abitur examination [the standard college entrance exam]; since 2009, however, those with a Meisterbrief (master craftsman's diploma) have also been able to apply. Those wishing to attend a ‘university of applied sciences’ must, as a rule, have Abitur, Fachhochschulreife [an applied science exam], or a Meisterbrief. 

If lacking those qualifications, pupils are eligible to enter a university or university of applied sciences if they can present additional proof that they will be able to keep up with their fellow students through a Begabtenprüfung or Hochbegabtenstudium (which is a test confirming excellence and above average intellectual ability).” Wikipedia.

Germany’s population, like most in the world, is rapidly skewing younger. Germany and the United States have similar college graduation rates, but the U.S. lacks the alternative top-tier vocational schools. And youth plus education seems to equal a move to progressive politics. “The Greens won one-third of the vote of those younger than 30 in the European elections in Germany, while the conservatives and Social Democrats together won less than a quarter of the vote, according to exit polls by ARD television.

“‘I think we’re seeing the end of the era for ‘big-tent parties’ in Germany,’ said Thomas Jaeger, a political scientist at Cologne University, predicting that three or more parties will be jousting to rule future governments instead of only the two that long dominated. ‘The Greens are having such a moment right now because climate is their campaign cause and after a drought in Germany last summer and unusually hot weather, people are listening. But I’m not sure whether this one issue lifting the Greens will still be the most important topic months or years down the road.’” LA Times. But the rising tide of younger voters will only matter more.

What does mean for the United States, a nation that reverted to populist nationalism in the 2016 election? A nation where inflation-corrected college tuition has increased an average of fivefold since the 1970s, where average graduates of four-year colleges carry student debt of over $37 thousand and where the aggregate of all student loans in the U.S. being $1.53 trillion dollars (way above the aggregate of credit card and other consumer debt)? Populist nationalism in the United States definitely skews older. 

Unless there is an end to the U.S. political system, which is quite possible given the severity of our polarization, the country is witnessing the rise of younger voters. They did not live through the “communist scare” that dominated our global perspective from the end of WWII until around 1990. Many lived through the 2007-2010 Great Recession. Most live in very diversified urban areas. Climate change really scares them. Immigration and racial/gender/ethnic differences do not. And they are definitely going to hold older generations responsible for the damage that they have created with bad choices. They will remember!

The current configuration of the Republican Party – dramatically populist nationalism that favors property rights over human rights – is inching toward unelectability in national races. And as much as the GOP is deploying voter restrictions, gerrymandering, immigration limitations and judicial appointments to marginalize voters likely to skew Democrat, if they really want to stop that inevitable change, they should really focus on raising the voting age to 40.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and the tea leaves in expected near-term political preferences are not particularly difficult to read.