The Big Joke – American Foreign Policy

Following up on the side show at the G-20 conference in Osaka Japan – see my June 28th China’s Not Our Friend, But… blog – it is clear that President Trump didn’t expect much from the conference itself. He was night. As far as the U.S. is concerned, that was exactly the conference itself produced. Zip! If anything was going to happen, it would be in separate one-on-one conversations with the leaders at the conference, notably Russia’s Vladimir Putin (Friday, June 28th) and China’s Xi Jinping (Saturday, June 29th). So how did those meetings go?

Putin? After the Mueller report rather unequivocally iterated legions of data and supporting evidence, fully corroborated by all of our major intelligence agencies, that Russia materially interfered with our 2016 presidential election – by planting fake news reports across social media, using bots to tailor messages to voters undermining Clinton and building up Trump, discouraging minority voters from casting ballots, to name a few nefarious efforts – Trump met in Osaka with Vladdy, his bromance partner of old. Putin has continuously denied Russian involvement in those efforts, even as several other Western powers have uncovered covert Russian efforts to undermine their elections as well.

Unable to admit that his 2016 election was tainted by these efforts – leading even the affable Jimmy Carter to challenge Trump’s bona fides as an elected president – or that his popular support was almost three million votes fewer than those of his opponent, Trump continues to deny Russian influence was remotely relevant… if it happened at all. 

Even continuing in interviews that there is no reason he would fail to “listen” to a foreign agent with dirt on an opponent, maybe telling the FBI… maybe not, Trump’s recent statements seem like an open invitation to Russia to do whatever they want in 2020. The meeting with Putin, quick and largely vapid, was more a moment of purported humor – Congress and the American people weren’t laughing – than a serious meeting of substance.

“After a reporter asked Trump at the start of their meeting if he would tell the Russian autocrat not to meddle in the U.S. campaign, Trump used the assembled TV cameras to leave no doubt that he had followed through… ‘Yes, of course I will,’ Trump responded before turning toward Putin.

“‘Don’t meddle in the election, please,’ Trump said, smiling and briefly pointing his right index finger toward Putin. ‘Don’t meddle in the election.’… Putin did not respond verbally, but he appeared to laugh at the lighthearted reprimand. So did Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo and several others in the room… Trump’s playful demeanor with Putin — he also winked at him — suggested he was joking. Critics were quick to jump on the mirthful exchange as minimizing the risk of foreign interference in a U.S. political campaign.

“‘Russia’s proven and blatant interference in our elections in 2016 is no laughing matter,’ said Michael McFaul, who served as U.S. ambassador to Russia under President Obama. ‘Yet again, President Trump has demonstrated that he doesn’t take the security of our elections seriously.’

“Over the last two years, Trump has repeatedly scoffed at the determination, first by U.S. intelligence agencies and then by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, that a Kremlin-backed operation hacked and released Democratic Party emails and manipulated social media in an effort to help Trump defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton.

“A summit between the two leaders in Helsinki, Finland, last July was marred when Trump openly accepted Putin’s denial of having meddled in the 2016 election, and dismissed U.S. intelligence conclusions to the contrary.” Los Angeles Times, June 29th.

And the meeting on Saturday with President Xi? “Better than I expected,” said Trump. A few concessions from China – China agreed to buy some agricultural products that faced PRC tariffs – but the biggest concessions came from the United States. Chinese telecom manufacturing giant Huawei (the company targeted by the Trump administration) is once again permitted to buy high-tech U.S. products and, as long as negotiations are ongoing, Trump’s tariffs will stay at their present levels. 

And yes, what everyone knew was going to happen anyway was agreed – trade negotiations would resume. In short not much new. Trump has begun acknowledging that his grandiose promises to deliver the “best trade agreement ever” is not so easy. I’m in “no hurry,” Trump accepted as if he knew that from the inception of his international economic missteps.

After the Osaka conference, and after a meeting Seoul and a joint press conference with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Sunday, June 30th, Trump and Moon headed off for a “photo-op” meeting, in lieu of a major breakthrough, with North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong-un in the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas. Trump actually stepped onto North Korean soil, the first U.S. president to do so, as the Kim and Trump did what the rest of the world expected: agree to restart denuclearization talks later this year. Kim’s brutality aside, Trump continued to raise that murderous North Korean leader’s international status by courting him and touting his special relationship. This time on Kim’s own turf.

That “no hurry” mantra has crept into Trump approach on that sticky foreign policy issue: Expected progress in denuclearization talks with North Korea. “Hey, base,” Trump seemed to be saying, “don’t expect a deal with the North before the 2020 elections, but I am the only one who can do this.” Trump ignored his diplomatic staff, genuine specialists in Korean realities, at the last meeting with Kim in Vietnam in February that resulted in failure. Trump’s believing only he can do it, the idea that Kim will give up the weapons that guarantee his dictatorship without something that most Americans and regional allies will be comfortable, is a stretch. 

And while Kim’s testing of ballistic missiles (but not other missiles capable of reaching regional American allies) and nuclear weapons may have ceased, experts say that no more testing is actually required since those weapon systems are now fully developed. Talking is good. Shooting from the hip without expert help is back. But now Trump can use that fact that talks are even happening, as opposed to his earlier pledge of an amazing breakthrough fast, as signs of his “success.” He labeled his meeting with Kim as “legendary.” The Nukes are still there. The missiles are still there. After The Donald’s courtship, Kim is now “legendary”… Trump remains simply notorious.

Trump returned to the United States, where his failed tax reform only benefitted the rich and further exacerbated America’s income inequality, where his immigration policies have created more asylum-seeks at our gates than ever before (with horrific consequences, especially for deprived children separated from their parents), his unproductive brinkmanship with Iran, and where America is more polarized than any time in its history since the Civil War era. But photo ops, using powerful and wildly inaccurate tweets and sloganeering are at the core of Trump’s style. Results… not so much.

              I’m Peter Dekom, and having an arrogant, publicity-seeking amateur who dismisses the best and brightest foreign policy experts in international subtleties is downright terrifying.