There are some pretty red counties in
California – drive north well past San Francisco or inland towards any of the
larger agricultural regions, and Trump rules. Farmers overlook their need for
undocumented farmworkers, many believing that California’s antipathy for
immigration restrictions, demands to keep state and local law enforcement from
helping federal authorities identify those undocumented aliens are downright
unamerican. Staggering state and local taxes, from property and sales tax to
income tax, compound some of the highest levels of unaffordability for home
ownership, and now even rental properties, in the country. Red tape, environmental
regulation and nasty traffic round out the list.
Sarah Parvini, writing for the November 7th
Los Angeles Times: “Just over half of California’s registered voters have
considered leaving the state, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental
Studies poll conducted for The Times… Republican voters were nearly three times
as likely as their Democratic counterparts to seriously have considered moving
— 40% compared with 14%, the poll found. Conservatives more frequently
mentioned taxes and California’s political culture as a reason for leaving than
they cited the state’s soaring housing costs.”
There are blue states, like Washington, and
red states, like Florida and Texas, that have no personal income tax.
Washington more than makes up for it with property and sales taxes, but there
are nice places in all of these tax-free states to buy property for a
reasonable price. Biotech, healthcare, hard and soft tech and energy sectors
are robust… green in Washington, not so green in Texas. And strangely, for the
most part, larger cities in the red states, particularly those with
international airports, tend towards blue while the countryside tilts red.
Texas and Florida slide into purple now and again, but Washington, particularly
the coast, is pretty blue.
If lots of fine restaurants, tons of sport and
cultural activities, in nice weather, are your choice California is expensive
but worth it. “We just don’t “do winter except at our ski resorts!” But if you
are straining at the pocketbook and believe immigration is clawing away at the
job market, California is not particularly going to make you smile. Unless you
are a surfer!
“Between 2007 and 2016, California lost 1
million residents to domestic migration — about 2.5% of its total population,
according to a 2018 report from the state Legislative Analyst’s Office. Texas
was the most popular destination… A 2019 relocation study by Texas Realtors
found that 63,175 Californians moved to Texas in 2017, while California was the
top destination for Texans to move — nearly 41,000 relocated here.
“Despite overall out-migration from the state,
California has been gaining people with higher incomes. The Bay Area has
absorbed most of the influx of those residents… Over the last decade, the
Legislative Analyst’s Office report said, the state added about 100,000
residents with household incomes of $120,000 or higher. About 85% of those
higher-income earners moved to the Bay Area counties of Alameda, Contra Costa,
San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara…
“Academic specialists say that though it’s
easy for people to talk about wanting to move to like-minded communities — or
to ‘sort’ themselves politically — it’s not clear how often their migrations
are based on politics alone.
“‘Actually moving is much more high-cost,’
said Ryan Enos, a professor of government at Harvard University. ‘That doesn’t
mean some won’t eventually move, but the evidence that people move solely based
on politics is low.’… Most people, he added, care more about the quality of
schools, affordable housing and the overall quality of life when they consider
a move.
“Clayton Nall, an assistant professor of
political science at Stanford University, said it’s “very possible” that the
Republicans who want to leave California may decide to move for the reasons
Enos noted — such as affordability — while blaming Democrats for those problems
they see in the state.
“‘But it’s important to put in context that
they are not the only people who are leaving,’ Nall said. ‘Their reason may not
be the main reason people are leaving California.’… Indeed, the Berkeley IGS
poll found that 82% of the 18- to 29-year-olds considering leaving the state
cited housing costs as a reason, as did nearly 80% of 30- to 39-year-olds.” LA
Times. When $1 million buys you an average of 800 square feet in San Francisco,
where $3000/month gets you a closet, unless you’re pretty sure about a
lucrative future… yeah… time to move. But remember, if you want red, virtually
all the large cities in Texas are already blue… maybe gerrymandered into red.
Sooner or later… And as for those soy lattes, you can get ‘em all over Texas
these days!
I’m
Peter Dekom, and except for political diehards, moving to another state is
seldom based on the political culture, no matter what people say.
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