Strain, Strain, Strain… of Fools

Strain, Strain, Strain… of Fools

The World Health Organization tells us that they are aware of 102 separate efforts, some coordinated, to develop a CV-19 vaccine. Some of these efforts are simply amplifications of vaccine research on other, less toxic members of the coronavirus family (the common flu, MERS, SARS, etc.). Others are focused on lessons learned in developing vaccines based on complex computer sequencing, where artificial intelligence replicates millions of modified “virtual drugs” against the molecular structure of the CV-virus. Still others have assumed that the answer lies in the antibodies from those who have recovered from the virus. If we can replicate those or induce our bodies to generate their own defenses based on those antibodies, we may get ahead of this game, perhaps even by some time next year. Maybe.

But here’s little monkey wrench to consider. So far, no Asian country – not even China – has come close to the infection rates and mortality statistics faced here in the United States (see above chart), mostly on the east coast. Tracing showed that the infections of the virus that arrived from Europe (eastern US) were more contagious than those coming more directly from China (western US). That is clearly the story behind New York City. Researchers had gone on the assumption that this virus was stable and was not mutating. But now, there is hard evidence that the virus has in fact mutated. Huh?

That could mean several additional and disturbing possibilities: 1. If this version is more contagious (it is), more people will get CV-19. 2. A vaccine developed for the earlier version might not work for this mutated version, and vice versa. 3. Immunity to one form of CV-19, based on recovery from infection, just might not prevent getting sick again from the other strain. 4. Test kits might not be able to detect both versions, so an all-clear might not be accurate. This is particularly nasty as testing is being applied to increasing numbers of returning employees. 5. Is this new strain more infectious to children and the young? And 6. There have been other mutations (most not significant), and there may be more mutations down the pike.  It is equally clear that this newer strain is rapidly replacing the earlier version… because to an avaricious virus, this newer version works better and infects more people! Evolution.

“Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory… The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote…

“The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer-reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one…

“In many places where the new strain appeared, it quickly infected far more people than the earlier strains that came out of Wuhan, China, and within weeks it was the only strain that was prevalent in some nations, according to the report. The new strain’s dominance over its predecessors suggests that it is more infectious, according to the report, though exactly why is not yet known…

“The report was based on a computational analysis of more than 6,000 coronavirus sequences from around the world collected by the Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza Data, a public-private organization in Germany. Time and again, the analysis found the new version was transitioning to become dominant.

“The Los Alamos team, assisted by scientists at Duke University and the University of Sheffield in England, identified 14 mutations. Those mutations occurred among the nearly 30,000 base pairs of RNA that make up the coronavirus’s genome. The report authors focused on a mutation called D614G, which is responsible for the change in the virus’ spikes.

“‘The story is worrying, as we see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and over the month of March becoming the dominant pandemic form,’ study leader Bette Korber, a computational biologist at Los Alamos, wrote on her Facebook page. ‘When viruses with this mutation enter a population, they rapidly begin to take over the local epidemic, thus they are more transmissible.’” Ralph Vartabedian writing for the Los Angeles Times, May 6^th.

Italy seems to be where the mutated virus planted its initial roots. But it exploded into the rest of Europe from there. People with the same degree of infection from either virus seems to have the same recovery patterns and hospitalization rates. The greater contagious nature of the European strain is not, however, the only surface differentiation. Apparently, it is easier to “load up” with the newer strain, intensifying the reaction.

“The Los Alamos study does not indicate that the new version of the virus is more lethal than the original. [But p]eople infected with the mutated strain appear to have higher viral loads. But the study’s authors from the University of Sheffield found that among a local sample of 447 patients, hospitalization rates were about the same for people infected with either virus version.” LA Times.

But a recent outbreak of what was thought to be “pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome” – with very serious consequences for children – just might be a CV-19 mutation that is simply broadening the reach of the virus. “Since the coronavirus pandemic began, most infected children have not developed serious respiratory failure of the kind that has afflicted adults. But in recent weeks, the unusual new syndrome has cropped up among children in and around New York City and elsewhere in the United States, a sign that children may face a greater risk from the virus than anticipated…

“Sixty-four children in New York State have been hospitalized with a mysterious illness that doctors do not yet fully understand but that may be linked to Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, officials said on Wednesday [5/6]…

“The new tally from state officials came two days after New York City health officials said that 15 children in the city had been hospitalized with the syndrome and that many of them had been infected with the virus… The symptoms of the mystery ailment, state health officials noted, ‘overlap’ with those associated with toxic shock syndrome and Kawasaki disease, a rare illness in children that involves inflammation of the blood vessels, including coronary arteries. Fever, abdominal symptoms and rash may also be present, officials wrote.” NY Times, May 7^th. Nature has programmed germs to find a path to replicate rapidly. CV-19 is apparently not an exception.

But what about “herd immunity”? Generally, absent a vaccine or a cure, pandemics tend to die out after three waves during which about 70% of the entire population is exposed. Less important when the severity of the symptoms is very survivable or where only a smaller portion of the population is truly at high risk. Critically important when death rates soar, and a rapidly growing segment of the population becomes vulnerable. In short, as much as we need to reopen our economy, nature does not seem to be giving us pass with CV-19.

All this is taking place as “reopenings” are taking place all over the nation, and as Donald Trump seems to have shifted his focus dramatically away from the medical (that will be blamed on governors) to the economic priorities that he feels are necessary to get him reelected. But reopenings, by definition, will increase the likelihood of person-to-person contact... which is how almost all infections in this nation have spread. Everything is pointing to opening up too soon, with insufficient testing, and without considering that the virus just might have become much more dangerous. That feared second wave appears to have begun already.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and while scientific research is not always easy to understand, I am puzzled why Americans are more convinced about the underlying “facts” about an obvious medical issue from politicians and economists with an obvious agenda than from qualified doctors and scientists.