Let me make myself abundantly clear: The Peoples’ Republic of China is not our friend and is unlikely ever to become one. At best they range from being mutually dependent détente trading partners to “frenemies.” Their leader, President Xi Jinping, is the first super-autocratic leader since Chairman Mao Zedong, carefully orchestrating his unlimited rule, isolating and eliminating this domestic foes, clamping down on criticism and dissent and sending a message to the world that China is “the other major world power.”
Xi, like Trump, is fomenting a personality cult around himself. Both leaders are quite willing to use the military and federal police against their own civilians to enforce their vision for their countries. For the first time in modern Chinese history, the PRC is reaching well beyond its borders to assert global power. It’s Belt and Road initiative seeks to link nations around the world to a trading infrastructure with China in control and at the hub.
But this is not the same as the Soviet era Cold War, despite the rhetoric. American movies still play in Chinese theaters. Trade at some level continues. There is some limited travel between ordinary citizens, perhaps temporarily limited because of the uncontained surge of COVID-19 cases here in the United States. There is communication, however strained. There are diplomatic links as well.
But two autocrats are slamming each other endlessly. Trump, master of blame and making up facts, counters an expansionist Xi whose spy network is now on overdrive in the Western world. It’s not as if we aren’t also trying to penetrate PRC government sources and file servers, but the battle over a cure for COVID-19 has amped the rhetoric and the effort up one giant notch. We’ve always had an issue with Chinese agents looking for technology to steal, private and governmental; it’s just that now the stops have all been pulled out. Racism against Asian Americans in the United States, individuals beaten because they are assumed links to a Chinese sourced virus, has given Xi a moral justification however tenuous that might be.
Aside from the spying, the BBC.com (July 23rd) summarizes the issues between the nations: There are a number of flashpoints between Beijing and Washington. Some of the most serious are:
- Coronavirus: President Trump has repeatedly referred to Covid-19 as the "China virus". and alleged it originated from a Chinese laboratory, despite his own intelligence officers saying it "was not manmade". In response, Chinese officials have suggested, without evidence, that Covid-19 might have originated in the US
- Trade: Mr Trump has long accused China of unfair trading practices and intellectual property theft. The US and China have engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff war since 2018 as a result of the dispute
- Hong Kong: China's imposition of a sweeping new national security law in Hong Kong in June led the US to revoke the region's preferential economic treatment. Beijing has accused the US of "gross interference" in its domestic affairs, promising it will retaliate
- South China Sea: The two countries have also clashed over Beijing's pursuit of offshore resources in disputed waters, with Mr Pompeo calling it a "campaign of bullying".
But as the adman says, “but wait, there’s more.” There’s a diplomatic war raging. Images of massive document burning at China’s consulate in Houston – standard operating procedure for most hostile nations when they are expecting to close or be tossed from their facility – suggest that China was most aware that its efforts in the region, the rather unsubtle attempts of consular personnel to enter restricted federal facilities and their increased efforts to ferret out US COVID-19 vaccine progress, were about to result in US State Department close order. On July 22nd it happened. The Trump administration has threatened more such close orders.
Promising retaliation, “Foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin accused the administration of using excuses to limit, harass or crack down on Chinese scholars in the country… ‘In response to the US's unreasonable actions, China must make a necessary response and safeguard its legitimate rights,’ he said at a press conference, describing the US allegations as ‘malicious slander.’…
“A Chinese scientist suspected of visa fraud and concealing ties to the military has fled to China's consulate in San Francisco, the US says… According to the filings, during an interview with FBI agents last month she said she had not served in the Chinese military.
“However, the document says, an open-source investigation uncovered photos of her wearing military uniform and a search of her home found further evidence of her affiliation with China's People's Liberation Army (PLA)… ‘At some point following the search and interview of Tang on June 20, 2020, Tang went to the Chinese consulate in San Francisco, where the FBI assesses she has remained,’ the filing, first reported on by the Axios news site,
“It adds: ‘As the Tang case demonstrates, the Chinese consulate in San Francisco provides a potential safe harbor for a PLA official intent on avoiding prosecution in the United States.’… Prosecutors say that this is not an isolated case but ‘appears to be part of a program conducted by the PLA’ to send military scientists to the US on false pretences.” BBC.com. China quickly announced the closure of the US consulate in Chendu.
“The State Department said in a brief statement that the shutdown order was given ‘to protect American intellectual property and Americans’ private information.’ The statement did not elaborate on the issue…. ‘President Trump has said, ‘Enough, we’re not going to allow this to continue to happen,’ ’ Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo said at a brief news conference Wednesday [7/22] in Copenhagen. ‘We are setting out clear expectations for how the Chinese Communist Party is going to behave, and when they don’t, we’re going to take actions that protect the American people, protect our national security and also protect our economy and jobs.’
“Closure of a diplomatic mission would represent a significant escalation in the accelerating breakdown of relations between Washington and Beijing… A trade war has already engulfed the world’s two biggest economies, and the Trump administration’s accusations of Chinese mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak have further strained relations.
“The two countries have imposed restrictions on each other’s journalists, expelling many of them, and the U.S. has restricted visas for Chinese graduate students with ties to entities deemed to be seeking to acquire foreign technology for Chinese military purposes.” Los Angeles Times, July 23rd.
In the end, the United States has gained many superlative PRC graduates who have simply elected to remain in the United States, enriched private industry by their inventions, and generated ton of American jobs in the process. We are also faced with global issues that cannot be solved without some form of cooperation with China: global pollution and climate change, identifying and tracking potential new pandemics, the United Nations itself and governmental multinational trade where bilateral agreements simply do not fit modern realities. There are risks. There are rewards. But we are stuck with each other, one way or the other. Blame, making up facts and name-calling do not help. But genuine bad acts need to be identified and countered effectively. Substance needs to trump form.
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