Does COVID-19 Really End?

 From COVIDStatistics.org January 31st 

From COVIDStatistics.org January 31st 

Does COVID-19 Really End?

Vaccine Nationalism

Officially, it’s called acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Canada has ordered enough vaccine to inoculate its entire population many times over. Why? We do not have enough vaccine stock even to vaccinate all Americans once! It is unlikely that we ever get more than half the planet inoculated against this killer virus. The virus has already mutated dozens and dozens of times, most recently reflecting several deadlier, more contagious and even nascent vaccine-resistant strains. Currently, the most concerning variants seems to have emanated from the UK, Brazil, South Africa and even California.

 We are in a race, to defeat as much of the novel coronavirus as we can before it wreaks a massive new, mutated murderous path of suffering and economic catastrophe, far beyond what we have seen to date. Out of a roughly $84 trillion dollars of global GDP, many experts suggest that the pandemic has already inflicted over $9 trillion dollars of economic damage, well over 100 million infections and 2.2 million deaths globally to date.

After a rage of infections and deaths from the HIV virus that exploded into the 1980s, we have only recently developed preventative inoculations and treatments have brought that plague under control. HIV is still here. Measles, thought to be completely contained, has resurfaced. Johnson & Johnson, yet to have its single dose COVID vaccine CDC/FDA approved, is already telling us that new strains of the virus have already shown some resistance to its vaccine. Moderna and BionTech-Pfizer are suggesting that if these new strains of the virus continue to show growing resistance, they may have to add a supplemental booster shot to extend the effectiveness of their prior vaccinations, which still have not reached even 10% of the US population. And there is a further suggestion that we might need an annual booster shot, much like the annual ritual to get a flu shot.

So many Americans, particularly minorities, are resisting vaccination. So many around the world are not even going to have an opportunity to be vaccinated.  While there are seemingly effective mollifying treatments for infection – mostly monoclonal antibodies such as those found in the not-yet-approved Regeneron treatment accorded Trump and other high-ranking members of his team – these are exceptionally expensive and difficult to scale to a meaningful level. Most of these are based on using blood extracts from recovered coronavirus victims.

There are so many variables, but the basic global commercial interconnectedness tells us very clearly that as long as there are large pockets of the planet where the novel coronavirus remains uncontained, the virus can continue to mutate until we achieve herd immunity stasis, which could take some time based on many variables. In short, COVID-19 may well be an active and serious threat to all of us for quite a while. A Princeton University study (reported on September 21st) notes: “As expected, the model found that the initial pandemic peak is largely independent of immunity because most people are susceptible. However, a substantial range of epidemic patterns are possible as SARS-CoV-2 infection — and thus immunity — increases in the population. 

“‘If immune responses are only weak, or transiently protective against reinfection, for example, then larger and more frequent outbreaks can be expected in the medium term,’ said co-author Andrea Graham, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at Princeton and an associated faculty member in PEI [Princeton Environmental Institute].

“The nature of the immune responses also can affect clinical outcomes and the burden of severe cases requiring hospitalization, the researchers found. The key question is the severity of subsequent infections in comparison to primary ones… Importantly, the study found that in all scenarios a vaccine capable of eliciting a strong immune response could substantially reduce future caseloads. Even a vaccine that only offers partial protection against secondary transmission could generate major benefits if widely deployed, the researchers reported. 

“Factors such as age and superspreading events are known to influence the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by causing individuals within a population to experience different immune responses or transmit the virus at different rates. ‘Our models show that these factors do not affect our qualitative projections about future epidemic dynamics,’ said Bryan Grenfell, the Kathryn Briger and Sarah Fenton Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs and an associated faculty member in PEI.”

You can see from the above map that areas where human movement and interaction is less frequent or naturally contained (such as in island nations or central Africa), versus crowed and densely populated countries, have lower incidences of infection. Nevertheless, where vaccinations are likely to leave tens if not hundreds of millions of people without access to vaccines (which can aggregate into 3-4 billion people), these regions become potential breeding grounds to keep the virus alive and mutating. Rich nations are able to buy the vaccine in quantity, and given production and distribution realities, that effort necessary slows if not deprives under-developed and developing nations from their fair share. 95% of the vaccines released to date have been delivered to the ten richest countries in the world. There are countries all over Africa that have not received a single dose.

That’s just life? Or is it obvious that this represents continuing an obvious breeding ground blowback risk for even the most developed nations? On his morning CNN newscast (1/31/21), journalist Farid Zacharia tells us that for every dollar richer nations provide to less affluent countries to secure sufficient vaccine will provide a global benefit of $4.80. Hard to tell rich nations not to prioritize their own citizens against the rest of the world, but there is a balancing act where supporting less affluent countries’ securing enough vaccine actually provides a huge benefit to the benefactor nations. Whatever else is said and done, it is absolutely critical for global cooperation and tracking. Unless it is willing to stop international trade and close its borders to any and all traffic (without severe and economically unsustainable restrictions), no nation can go it alone against COVID-19.

I’m Peter Dekom, despite strong feelings among many Americans towards increased isolation from the rest of the world, like it or not, we are truly and globally all in this together.