Hong Kong Gone

The National People’s Congress is the top lawmaking body in the People’s Republic of China. What little semblance of Democratic freedom left in Hong Kong (a PRC special administrative district) is about to die. HK’s Basic Law, which was embodied in the treaty whereby the United Kingdom transferred ownership and control of this Crown Colony to the PRC in 1997, was intended to keep the then-existing British legal system intact until 2047. With the installation of Xi Jinping as President of China in the fall of 2012, his autocratic proclivities became increasingly apparent. In addition to doing away with Presidential term limits, Xi set out to purge China and her holdings of forces that did not walk lockstep with his view of the Party line. Uighurs felt his wrath. Those in Hong Kong not willing to cede their rights under the Basic Rights, as he increasingly defined who could and who could not hold office in HK, found their assumed free speech and free assembly rights sequentially crushed.

China called for protestors arrested in HK to be transported to into the main PRC for trial. They imposed restrictions on who could run for HK office. They slowly ramped up sequential security laws. An increasing number of locals were being arrested for protesting, which China defined as “sedition.” Violence escalated. China clamped down harder. The pretense of honoring the Basic Law – known as one country, two systems – was eroding fast. 

In late February, “the Hong Kong government announced that it would enact a law allowing only ‘patriots’ to serve on district councils, the lowest level of the city’s administrative apparatus, with responsibilities that include sanitation and traffic. This will probably result in the expulsion of democratically elected council members and the disqualification of future candidates deemed disloyal to the ruling Communist Party of China.

“Then, on Feb. 28, in the most sweeping crackdown yet since China imposed a draconian national security law on the former British colony in July, the Hong Kong authorities charged 47 leaders of the city’s pro-democracy movement with ‘conspiracy to commit subversion’ under the law. Because the law rigs the trial process to ensure conviction, these activists face the prospect of years in prison… When the 47 pro-democracy activists are convicted and sentenced to long prison terms, bilateral relations could resume their dangerous downward spiral. Chinese repression in Hong Kong will make it much easier for Biden to recruit wavering Western democracies as allies.” Minxin Pei (professor of government at Claremont McKenna College) for the Los Angeles Times, March 10th.

While the United States has iterated strong negative reactions to China, the European Union has timidly held back, treasuring new trade agreements with the PRC. But even in Europe, popular pressure is suggesting that even they cannot continue to pretend China’s actions are either normal or acceptable. There are hints that this may change (see below).

The final coffin nails, a dramatic breach of the treaty that gave Hong Kong to China, are being forged now. Some of these efforts mirror actions already taken by Hong Kong’s PRC puppet Executive Council. “China's top law-making body has unveiled plans to ensure only ‘patriots’ can govern Hong Kong, as Beijing tightens its grip on the city with changes to the electoral system… Premier Li Keqiang, addressing the National People's Congress (NPC), warned the world not to interfere… The move follows the imposition of a tough security law…

“The EU has warned that it may take ‘additional steps’ over the plans announced on Friday [3/5]… It called on Beijing to ‘carefully consider the political and economic implications on any decision to reform the electoral system of Hong Kong that would undermine fundamental freedoms, political pluralism and democratic principles.’” BBC.com, March 5th. “[U.S.] State department spokesman Ned Price said the move was ‘a direct attack on Hong Kong's autonomy, Hong Kong's freedoms and the democratic processes’.” BBC.com, March 6th. On March 11th, Li Keqiang’s words became law: “The ‘patriots governing Hong Kong’ resolution was passed at the National People's Congress (NPC)… … It will reduce democratic representation and allow a pro-Beijing panel to vet and elect candidates.” BBC.com, March 11th.

“Ian Chong, politics professor at the National University of Singapore, told the BBC: ‘In 2019, the pan-democrats did extremely well [in local elections], which was alarming to the CCP [Chinese Communist Party], because it showed that all their negative rhetoric didn't seem to be working… I think for the CCP, they really want to remove the voices that they don't like to hear.’.. Willie Lam, China analyst at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told the AFP news agency that if the new NPC measures passed as he expected they would ‘effectively wipe out any remaining opposition’.” BBC.com, March 5th. They obviously passed. Is that the end of Hong Kong democracy? 

“Several considerations may have prompted Chinese President Xi Jinping to escalate the repression in the semiautonomous territory. For starters, indications that the national security law has succeeded in instilling the rule of fear in the once-defiant city may be encouraging Xi to try to decapitate Hong Kong’s pro-democracy forces.

“Moreover, the West’s response — until now limited to diplomatic denunciations and sanctions against a small number of senior Chinese and Hong Kong officials — to China’s imposition of the national security law has not really hurt the government in Beijing. Chinese leaders also appear to have drawn a line in dealing with President Biden: China’s sovereign prerogatives in Hong Kong and the western region of Xinjiang are nonnegotiable. China will do as it pleases in those places, despite Biden’s warning of ‘repercussions’ for human rights abuses… But Xi may have underestimated the costs of his actions in Hong Kong. This latest spate of prosecutions of pro-democracy activists, coupled with a lack of goodwill gestures from China to improve ties with the United States, will most probably harden Biden’s stance.

“For the time being, the Biden administration wants to avoid a frontal collision with China, because it must first attend to domestic priorities such as tackling the COVID-19 pandemic and fostering economic recovery. As Biden’s advisors weigh the best approach to China, the Chinese Community Party’s intensifying crackdown in Hong Kong will undermine advocates of a more nuanced and less confrontational approach while vindicating those convinced that only a hard-line position can modify Chinese behavior.” Minxin Pei

Xi has used the distraction of the pandemic and the total breakdown in Sino-American relations under the Trump, one he seems to be encouraging to continue even within the Biden administration, to escalate his cult of autocratic personality to impose complete control of all things within his aegis. Staggering under the economic strain of Brexit coupled with COVID, Europe has so far done little other than mount fairly minor efforts in efforts against Xi’s obvious human rights violations, prioritizing the new EU trade agreement with the PRC. As the pandemic subsides, expect a much bigger push back from the West. Will that work? Depends on what’s in it for China. How far will the West go?

I’m Peter Dekom, and one of the most difficult and complex diplomatic realities on earth just got vastly more difficult and complex.