"I think it's a big mistake. Look, I hope everybody realizes by now that masks make a big difference. We are on the cusp of being able to fundamentally change the nature of this disease because the way in which we are able to get vaccines… The last thing we need is the Neanderthal thinking that, in the meantime, everything is fine, take off our mask, forget it.”
President Joe Biden in response to Texas and Mississippi governors’ ending mask mandates and COVID business/school restrictions.
COVID-19 fatigue is setting in. People are taking new risks, simply because they are tired of restrictions, want their children back in a socializing educational environment and want to earn money again (thinking the world can get back to normal in the immediate future). The vaccine roll out is finally hitting hopeful numbers, which actually adds fuel to the fire.
We are anything but out of the woods, and with more people taking fewer precautions, the novel coronavirus – which has already mutated thousands of times (only a few of those mutations are of vaccine resistant strains) – will only have a continuing ability to spread and mutate further. As we shall see, the prospects for global herd immunity in the near term are not good. Add the long-tail aftereffects (PASC) of a COVID infection – even a mild or symptomless one – and the potential damage only multiplies. COVID-19 deaths are anything but over. We just might be staring at a new spring surge that could be startling. Remember, there are still a lot of people in this country who simply will not get a vaccine under any circumstances.
“‘Stamina has worn thin,’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said during a press briefing Wednesday [3/3] morning. ‘Fatigue is winning, and the exact measures we have taken to stop the pandemic are now too often being flagrantly ignored.’
“Relieving that fatigue has become a major concern for the Biden administration. Speaking from the White House the previous day, the president announced that all teachers should be vaccinated by the end of March and there would be enough vaccine doses available for every American adult by May.” Yahoo New, March 3rd.
Writing for Reuters, March 3rd, Julie Steenhuysen and Kate Kelland address increasing expert analysis that suggests COVID-19 is likely to be with us for much longer than we think: “Chris Murray, a University of Washington disease expert whose projections on COVID-19 infections and deaths are closely followed worldwide, is changing his assumptions about the course of the pandemic… Murray had until recently been hopeful that the discovery of several effective vaccines could help countries achieve herd immunity, or nearly eliminate transmission through a combination of inoculation and previous infection. But in the last month, data from a vaccine trial in South Africa showed not only that a rapidly-spreading coronavirus variant could dampen the effect of the vaccine, it could also evade natural immunity in people who had been previously infected.”
Murray is hardly alone in this assessment, although virtually all experts agree that vaccination offers hope that the disease can be addressed at a significant level. But new disease resistant variants – in a race between massive vaccinations and the evolution of those resistant strains that may well require revaccination or result in new infection surges – have thrown a monkey wrench into the modeling.
“A new consensus is emerging among scientists, according to Reuters interviews with 18 specialists who closely track the pandemic or are working to curb its impact. Many described how the breakthrough late last year of two vaccines with around 95% efficacy against COVID-19 had initially sparked hope that the virus could be largely contained, similar to the way measles has been… But, they say, data in recent weeks on new variants from South Africa and Brazil has undercut that optimism. They now believe that SARS-CoV-2 will not only remain with us as an endemic virus, continuing to circulate in communities, but will likely cause a significant burden of illness and death for years to come.
“As a result, the scientists said, people could expect to continue to take measures such as routine mask-wearing and avoiding crowded places during COVID-19 surges, especially for people at high risk… Even after vaccination, ‘I still would want to wear a mask if there was a variant out there,’ Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden, said in an interview. ‘All you need is one little flick of a variant (sparking) another surge, and there goes your prediction’ about when life gets back to normal…
“Phil Dormitzer, a top vaccine scientist at Pfizer, told Reuters in November that the U.S. drugmaker’s vaccine success signaled the virus was ‘vulnerable to immunization’ in what he called “a breakthrough for humanity.” By early January, he acknowledged the variants heralded ‘a new chapter’ in which companies will have to constantly monitor for mutations that could dampen the effect of vaccines.
“In late January, the impact on vaccines became even clearer. Novavax’s clinical trial data showed its vaccine was 89% effective in a UK trial, but just 50% effective at preventing COVID-19 in South Africa. That was followed a week later by data showing the AstraZeneca PLC vaccine offered only limited protection from mild disease against the South African variant.
“The most recent change of heart was considerable, several of the scientists told Reuters. Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in San Diego, described it as ‘scientific whiplash’: In December, he had believed it was plausible to achieve so-called ‘functional eradication” of the coronavirus, similar to measles… Now, ‘getting as many people vaccinated as possible is still the same answer and the same path forward as it was on December 1 or January 1,’ Crotty said, ‘but the expected outcome isn’t the same.’…
“U.S. government predictions of a return to a more normal lifestyle have been repeatedly pushed back, most recently from late summer to Christmas, and then to March 2022. Israel issues ‘Green Pass’ immunity documents to people who have recovered from COVID-19 or been vaccinated, allowing them back into hotels or theaters. The documents are only valid for six months because it’s not clear how long immunity will last.” Reuters
Are COVID-19 protocols at school and at work, masks in public with continued social distancing, the necessary new normal? What does this do to the travel sector, to a return to normal… even dating? What are the long-term economic resets that we face, and what does continued resistance to preventative measures mean for our future? Does the red-blue polarization suggest that the United States will continue to be a world leader in COVID-19 infection and mortality rate even after the initial phase of vaccinations is complete? Time will tell, but this is hardly the time to assume life simply slips back into what it was before the pandemic.
I’m Peter Dekom, and long-term lifestyle adjustments are simply going to have to become the new normal… or the virus will once again have its way with us all.
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