Traveling as COVID Fades and Surges

The United States Department of State updated its list of foreign travel advisories – some for political and military instability but mostly for raging and continuing COVID outbreaks – to total a walloping 130 countries. A quick check of the Our World in Data vaccination comparison chart above (as of April 26th) gives you a pretty good view of who’s beginning to get COVID under control with sufficient vaccinations… and who is definitely not.

The United States Department of State updated its list of foreign travel advisories – some for political and military instability but mostly for raging and continuing COVID outbreaks – to total a walloping 130 countries. A quick check of the Our World in Data vaccination comparison chart above (as of April 26th) gives you a pretty good view of who’s beginning to get COVID under control with sufficient vaccinations… and who is definitely not.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories.html/ is the site to check before any foreign travel. India and Brazil lead the list of truly horrific numbers, as infection and death rates in those countries are breaking records. A snapshot of India for example, taken on April 26th by the BBC.com, is particularly disheartening: “For the fourth day in a row, India has set an unwelcome world record for new coronavirus infections, with 349,691 more cases in the 24 hours to Sunday [4/25] morning, and another 2,767 lives lost. The BBC's Vikas Pandey reports from the capital Delhi, where hospitals are overwhelmed and people are desperate.” Oxygen, which is manufactured far from major cities that require such supplies the most, is in seriously short supply and can only be shipped by overland routes for safety.

Elsewhere around the globe, the distribution of vaccines is anything but uniform. Some very modern nations have exceptionally horrible vaccination rates. Because of overly stringent government quality controls, only around one percent of Japan’s population, for example, has been inoculated. But once having been one of the worst bad boyz of COVID control, as the above numbers illustrate, the United States’ recent massive deployment and availability of vaccines, despite a bit of start-stop with the Johnson & Johnson inoculation, has proven rather successful, even as diehard pockets of anti-vax sentiments could derail our effort.

We’ve done so well it seems, that if we keep up the current pace of vaccinations, even as we might warn American travelers of issues all over the planet, a significant part of the world is keeping an eye on our progress, telling us that if we continue at the current pace (not clear that we will), restrictions against Americans entering other nations will possibly be lifted in the very near term.

In other words, for Americans savoring international travel, there is hope in the wind, as this extract from the BBC.com (April 26th) suggests: “Americans may be able to travel to the EU this summer - if they are fully vaccinated against Covid-19… European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the New York Times this should be possible as both sides have approved the same jabs… However, she gave no exact timetable and said it would depend on the ‘epidemiological situation.’… European nations have restricted non-essential travel from the US for more than a year.

“The EU toughened its recommendations on foreign visitors in January - but each member state must put the measures in place. Greece, for example, has already said Americans with proof of negative tests can enter… The UK, which is now outside of the EU, is introducing a traffic light system on 17 May that will set out its travel restrictions on countries around the world. Which countries get which traffic light is yet to be finalised.

“The US still bans leisure travel from the EU and UK. There have been some suggestions it could reciprocate in lifting restrictions, but nothing has been announced… Its current advice to Americans is to avoid 80% of countries worldwide because of the coronavirus pandemic… Vaccination programmes are proceeding swiftly in the US and UK, and the EU's target for the summer remains ‘a minimum of 70% of the entire adult population’ receiving at least one dose… The US is on target for 70% of adults by the middle of June. The UK total is already at 65% for at least one dose.”

Whatever the prognosis, the vast hordes of people living all over the world who do not have the likelihood of access to viable vaccines are potential pockets of infections where seriously dangerous COVID variants could develop and spread, inevitably threatening the United States. We may need booster shots to thwart these potential contagions, although the remaining vaccine skeptics here in the United States are equally capable of sabotaging our efforts to return to normalcy. If we do it right, can we find some viable salvation this year? For sure in 2022? Or is this going to be a much longer recovery period that most of us can imagine? Time will tell.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I am still aghast at vaccine and COVID skeptics who somehow have manufactured a non-existent “constitutional right” to avoid masks and social distancing and infect whomever they come in contact with without any responsibility.

Rising Voters, Sinking Republicans

The Republican evangelical base is solidly loyal to their party. They believe Biden stole the election through technology and violating the US and relevant constitution to get lots of people to vote who did not have the legal right to vote. A sizeable number believe the Capitol insurrectionists were justified in their assault, that it may well have been their duty to take down an illegally elected government. They also represent a large section of vaccine doubters, COVID marginalizers, climate change deniers and people who believe that transgender people have mental problems, that gay marriage should be forbidden, that school prayer should be reinstated, abortion outlawed and that Black Americans are thoroughly unjustified in their claims of unrelenting injustice and wrong to “cancel” white culture. Their ranks are heavily peppered with white supremacists and more than a few militia members ready to “take back” America.  And without this constituency, deeply encouraged in each of these “values” by Donald Trump, the GOP probably could not win even red state elections and most certainly would have no shot at the presidency.

The Republican evangelical base is solidly loyal to their party. They believe Biden stole the election through technology and violating the US and relevant constitution to get lots of people to vote who did not have the legal right to vote. A sizeable number believe the Capitol insurrectionists were justified in their assault, that it may well have been their duty to take down an illegally elected government. They also represent a large section of vaccine doubters, COVID marginalizers, climate change deniers and people who believe that transgender people have mental problems, that gay marriage should be forbidden, that school prayer should be reinstated, abortion outlawed and that Black Americans are thoroughly unjustified in their claims of unrelenting injustice and wrong to “cancel” white culture. Their ranks are heavily peppered with white supremacists and more than a few militia members ready to “take back” America.  And without this constituency, deeply encouraged in each of these “values” by Donald Trump, the GOP probably could not win even red state elections and most certainly would have no shot at the presidency.

The fiscal conservatives and more moderate Republicans are current virtually unrepresented in Congress and most red state legislatures and governorships. But these values and hence the GOP itself skew older than the general population. Older with many in the oldest demographic that is dying away. Even as the Republican Party is electing more women to Congress, their popularity among even white suburban women has faded. The fiscal and monetary policies of giving more cash to the rich now flies in the face of failed job creation and the highest level of income inequality in our nation’s history.

But the greatest threat to the GOP are the trends of a better educated set of younger generations plagued with absurd student loans, housing unaffordability and realistically facing the increasingly harsh ravages of climate change. They are more socially tolerant and less optimistic about their futures. The GOP, simply, is on the wrong side of history on the most important issues that concern them. Thomas Patterson, writing for the March 31st Los Angeles Times, looks at this reality:

“Republicans’ internal feud could wreck their chances in the next election cycle. Recent polls show a drop in the GOP’s favorability rating and a decline in the number of Americans who call themselves Republicans. Nevertheless, these developments pale alongside a long-term trend that could wreck the GOP for decades.

“The trend hasn’t been seen in American politics since the 1930s. Back then, Democrats swept into office on voters’ anger at the GOP’s limp response to the misery brought on by the Great Depression. Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election in 1932 marked the first time in 80 years that a Democratic presidential nominee had won a popular-vote majority, a feat FDR would repeat in the next three elections. But it was a related development that ruined the Republicans’ long-term chances. Young voters backed the Democratic Party by more than 3 to 2 in the 1932-44 elections, and they maintained their party loyalty throughout their lives. Election after election until the late 1960s, their votes carried Democrats to victory.

“It has happened again. Exit polls indicate that voters under 30 backed the Democratic presidential nominee by more than 3 to 2 over the past five elections. And as they’ve aged, they’ve continued to vote Democratic. This cohort now includes every adult under the age of 45 — half of the nation’s 209 million adults.

“Young voters carried Joe Biden to victory in 2020. According to exit polls, the two-party vote among those under 45 years of age split 57% to 43% in Biden’s favor, whereas those 45 and older went for Trump by a 52%-48% margin. What kept the election somewhat close was that older voters turned out at a somewhat higher rate.

“But older voters will gradually die out of the electorate, and there are few Republican reinforcements in sight. Pollsters find that most young adults hold positions at odds with those of the GOP. Eighty-three percent support gay marriage, 81% back giving permanent legal status to Dreamers, and 70% would raise taxes on the wealthy. Three times as many young adults say that “bold action” is needed on climate change as say it’s not needed. By 7 to 1, Gallup found 18-to-29-year-olds supported the racial protests triggered by the death of George Floyd while in police custody… The list could go on, but the point would be the same. The GOP’s agenda has no appeal to most young adults.

“Even glimmers of Republican hope diminish upon a closer look. White voters are the GOP’s most loyal supporters. But in 2020, according to exit polls , the margin among white voters under 30 was only 9 percentage points in Trump’s favor, compared with his 17-point margin among those 45 and older… Half of today’s young voters are minority group members, and they are staunchly Democratic. Among those under 30 , 87% of Black voters, 83% of Asian American voters and 73% of Latino voters cast a Democratic ballot in the 2020 presidential race.

“Rather than reaching out to minorities, Republicans have sought to dilute their influence through all manner of dirty tricks. The idea of disenfranchising minorities was first hatched by the Republican-controlled legislatures of Indiana and Georgia. They enacted laws requiring residents to have a government-issued photo ID in order to register to vote, although it is clear that minority groups are far less likely than white Americans to have a passport or driver’s license. And the GOP is now doubling down on voter suppression. In Republican-controlled state legislatures in 2021, the Brennan Center for Justice counts 253 bills that would limit ballot access by, for example, curtailing mail-in voting, early voting and absentee voting.”

As liberal as I am, I do not believe that one overwhelmingly dominant political party is good for this nation. The GOP is already licking its chops assuming that, as with most mid-term elections, they will recapture a Senate majority and perhaps replicate that feat in the House. With voter suppression and gerrymandering, they just might. A conservative court might sustain these anti-democracy manipulations, they believe. But inevitably, they are alienating an increasingly large demographic segment with rather dramatically different objectives and fears. Nevertheless, Trump’s dominating presence and the risk of losing without catering to extremists just might unravel the Republican Party, unless they wake up… an unlikely near-term event.

I’m Peter Dekom, and if you need to manipulate the vote to gain or hold power, you are on the wrong side of history and destined to fail… sooner rather than later.

The Hard Cell in Medical Diagnostics – Artificial Intelligence

The medical field has slowly evolved over the centuries from somewhere beginning with barbers, shamans and soothsayers, then slowly expanding from medical mythology and assumptions into a world of anatomically based science. American doctors go through a process that begins with a four-year undergraduate degree, adds another intense four years of graduate education to an M.D. or equivalent degree, adds a couple of years of “residency” and perhaps more than a few more in a specialized “fellowship” at an appropriate hospital. Board certification in specialized practices might be next. Followed by years of experience, lots of available parallel medical research, vast pools of data and accelerating medical technology, treatment, prevention and diagnostics. 

The medical field has slowly evolved over the centuries from somewhere beginning with barbers, shamans and soothsayers, then slowly expanding from medical mythology and assumptions into a world of anatomically based science. American doctors go through a process that begins with a four-year undergraduate degree, adds another intense four years of graduate education to an M.D. or equivalent degree, adds a couple of years of “residency” and perhaps more than a few more in a specialized “fellowship” at an appropriate hospital. Board certification in specialized practices might be next. Followed by years of experience, lots of available parallel medical research, vast pools of data and accelerating medical technology, treatment, prevention and diagnostics. 

We’ve just seen the miracle of a rapidly developed and deployed series of vaccines that are now countering the COVID virus, an entirely new branch of medicine where man-manufactured RNA proteins, mirroring the external “shape” of a contagion, are used to teach the human body’s main line of defenses (T-cells) to identify toxic intruders. We’ve watched as artificially intelligent analytics are applied to radiological interpretation, reading x-rays with astounding accuracy based on growing reams of data (and self-learning). Diagnostic results that exceed the ability of even the most experienced radiologists. There are even robotic surgical machines capable of performing “no human hands” surgery, currently intensely supervised by a surgeon monitoring the procedure.

Still, most of us are less than fully comfortable putting our diagnostic trust in a machine. But the accuracy is objectively compelling. A publication released on July 7th of last year at the Consumer Electronics Show provides this excellent summary of AI’s potential in medical diagnostics: “Companies have used AI to detect patterns in large volumes of data, identifying differences and similarities in different cells, genes and more to find indicators of what can cause a disease and what changes can cure it.

“For example, biotechnology company Berg performed tests on more than 1000 cancerous and healthy human cell samples to identify new cancer mechanisms. By varying the levels of sugar and oxygen to which the cells were exposed to model diseased cells, the researchers were able to track the differences between diseased and healthy cells using real-world patient data.

“London-based Benevolent pulls analysis from source data such as research papers, patents, clinical trials, patient records and more to curate and standardize the knowledge into the company’s knowledge graph. The graph contextualizes the information, predicts potential disease targets that can be overlooked, evaluates molecular structures and more. The company has been using its knowledge graph to help identify a potential treatment for COVID-19.”

The solution is obvious. Bring artificial intelligence into a doctor’s daily practice, specialist or generalist, private office practice or hospital expertise. Make it affordable. Add the potential of telemedicine – which proved to be particularly useful during the pandemic for people afraid to enter a doctor’s office – and the potential grows. The pandemic caused too many people to avoid necessary screenings and treatments, sometimes with fatal results, during this pandemic. See my March 19th Ready for My Annual Screening, Dr. DeMille blog for a more detailed discussion.

But all that is changing. Big tech players, from Amazon to Microsoft, from Wal-Mart to national pharmaceutical chains, are embracing bringing medicine and medical technology into every doctor’s office, reaching consumers with online connections and local simple screenings and diagnostics. One recent corporate acquisition by Microsoft suggests that this new medical direction will become the new normal much faster than we can imagine, perhaps facilitating the deployment of universal healthcare with a realistic cost sensitive approach that does not sacrifice accuracy. In the meantime, adding AI to a traditional doctor’s practice seems an obvious interim step.

On April 13th, “Microsoft announced it had acquired Nuance Communications for $16 billion. Nuance is a pioneer in the field of advanced medical transcription, but the technology is still young. The battle to reduce the administrative burden for doctors using artificial intelligence is intensifying, and the acquisition could position Microsoft well to compete against other tech giants as they jostle for dominance within healthcare.

“Nuance has a long history as a medical transcription service and has invested heavily in voice recognition technology. The hope is that its technology could potentially reduce the number of hours that doctors spend inputting medical information into patients’ electronic health records (EHR). Physicians spend 16 minutes per patient inputting information into their EHR, according to a much-cited study last year. How much of that is time well spent is another question entirely. That’s why Nuance is trying to reduce the hours doctors spend toiling inside of the EHR.

“The 28-year old company is a well-established player in the health industry. Some 77% of U.S. hospitals and roughly half of all doctors in the country use Nuance’s technology. Still, it’s very early days for AI medical assistant software generally.

“‘Most of the vendors I’ve seen . . . are still using humans in the loops for quality checking and to reduce the amount of editing that needs to be done by the provider at the time of sign-off,’ says Dr. Steven Lin, associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who researches medical artificial intelligence. ‘If I have to choose between a well-trained human scribe and one of these AI-powered solutions, I would probably still pick and favor a well-trained human scribe who knows my style and who has the ability to organize complicated patient histories.’” Ruth Reader in the April 14th FastCompany.com. Yes, we are indeed heading into a future where patients will develop a greater comfort level dealing directly with robotic solutions, supervised at least in the early years by doctors. It is as inevitable as self-driving cars. One step at a time.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the introduction of highly accurate but cost-efficient medical technology solutions is a necessary part of implementing high quality universal healthcare.

Carpools, Youth Athletics, Competition, Loss

The pandemic has wreaked havoc across almost every part of daily life. We’ve watch as Internet-connected children struggle with virtual classrooms – many falling woefully behind in this relatively under-structured environment – and competitive student athletes have been watching critical time pass without the ability to compete. But as schools reopen, as the relevant vaccines are still undergoing final testing for younger recipients, one of the largest segments of the population experiencing COVID infection has been in the 12-17 age group, particularly in venues where younger competitors are allowed to participate in school sports. The now predominant UK variant (B-117), more severe and contagious than the original virus, seems to have engaged younger demographics with particular virulence.

The pandemic has wreaked havoc across almost every part of daily life. We’ve watch as Internet-connected children struggle with virtual classrooms – many falling woefully behind in this relatively under-structured environment – and competitive student athletes have been watching critical time pass without the ability to compete. But as schools reopen, as the relevant vaccines are still undergoing final testing for younger recipients, one of the largest segments of the population experiencing COVID infection has been in the 12-17 age group, particularly in venues where younger competitors are allowed to participate in school sports. The now predominant UK variant (B-117), more severe and contagious than the original virus, seems to have engaged younger demographics with particular virulence.

“At Friday’s [4/9] White House COVID-19 response team briefing, Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, discussed an increase in coronavirus cases due to youth sports. Saying it’s not necessarily a result of transmissions in schools, she urged students, school staff and parents to follow CDC guidance for schools and to participate in testing programs…

“For example, in Michigan and Minnesota that are also increasing number of cases linked to B-117 variants in various settings. And in both of these states, there is concern about transmission in youth sports, both clubs sports, as well as sports affiliated in schools. Well, what is happening in Michigan and Minnesota is similar to what we are seeing across the country.” Yahoo News, April 9th.

But frustration and pent-up needs to return to normal are pressing us back to competitive sports. Which led Audrey Young, a board-certified internal medicine physician in Seattle and a member of USA Climbing’s medical committee, writing an OpEd for the April 10th Los Angeles Times, to take another look at the other aspects of competitive student sports, a world where parents, coaches and fellow students yell and scream, where pressure to win mounts and where self-image can plunge at “failure and loss.”

“[As] youth teams and leagues return, it’s worth examining what our children are actually signed up for. Youth sports are no longer the neighborhood pickup games of American lore. In recent years children as young as 6 are increasingly enrolling in high-level sports programs with professional coaches and year-round competition schedules.

“By age 13, up to 70% of children have dropped out of organized sports. I was certain the stats wouldn’t apply to my family — until two of the best, strongest, older athletes on my kids’ climbing team dropped out.

“Evidence suggests that as young people compete more intensely in sports, gains in mental wellness may be replaced by mental health challenges particular to competitive athletics. Pre-pandemic, up to 20% of college athletes experienced major depression. For young athletes competing at national and international levels, anxiety and depression were 20% to 45% higher in some cases than those in the age-matched control groups. In one study of elite Canadian swimmers, an eye-popping 68% met the criteria for depression.

“Supporting psychological well-being in our young athletes feels especially urgent as we emerge from a pandemic that has probably affected everyone’s mental health in some way. Sports medicine experts are just beginning to seriously study the mental health problems that arise in youth sports, but it’s increasingly evident that constant competition, year-round training and injuries can all contribute to anxiety and depression in athletes.

“Humans are wired with an ancient nervous system that activates a ‘fight or flight’ response to perceived danger — the kind of adrenaline storm that can also be triggered by playing in sporting events like track meets and soccer games. Athletes who don’t learn to manage the stress of repetitive competition can experience anxiety and diminished performance — often referred to as choking. The feeling of not living up to one’s potential can undermine confidence and optimism, which may lead to athletes dropping out.

“Injury is one of the strongest risk factors for mental health issues in athletes. It is linked to clinical depression and can trigger thoughts about low motivation and laziness. Even after returning to play, the prospect of reinjury may be a source of anxiety. Young athletes training year round in a single sport are at greater risk of being injured compared to athletes playing multiple sports. Eventually, anxiety and depression can interfere with training and performance and alter an athlete’s physiology.”

Indeed, picture a solid athlete in high school, ignoring academics and focusing on his or her sport of choice, spending hours exercising and practicing. The odds of any young body merging into the highest level of collegiate and then professional sports are never good. When that young body hit maximum athletic potential and hits that ultimate competitive wall, they are often left without skills and education to make their way economically in this world. Yet there are few educational institutions offering the kind of counselling that should be applied to student athletes in general, and to those who hit that wall specifically.

Young continues: “Parents, coaches, teammates and peers should talk — and listen — to the student-athletes in their lives. It can help more than one might guess. Ask open-ended questions that allow the person to be comfortable expressing feelings. Being able to talk about the stress of team dynamics or competition can be beneficial. Just by talking, individuals can sometimes identify the next actions to take.

“Research shows that writing about difficult moments and situations can also improve mental wellness. Some athletes make it a practice to write about goals and regularly reflect on their feelings about challenging events. This practice may initially feel distressing as difficult feelings surface, but in the days and weeks to come their brains may be in a better place.

“If talking or writing doesn’t result in progress, connect with a healthcare expert like a trusted pediatrician or a mental health professional, and get guidance on how to help the athlete’s mental well-being.” In the end, those young bodies and minds are probably unaware of the direct causation of their emotion discomfort or what to do about it. It is in the hands of the teachers, coaches, counsellors… but mostly parents… to watch, listen and react.

I’m Peter Dekom, and pushing kids too hard when the probabilities are against them and then failing to react appropriately to the mental anguish, needs to stop even as this nation seems obsessed with pushing those competitive kids really hard.

U.S. Military Deployment Against U.S. Citizens

Except in the rare case of mass armed insurrection or severe civil strife, troops under federal command are simply not permitted to be deployed against civilians by reason of a statute directed at U.S. ground forces: “The Posse Comitatus Act is a United States federal law (18 U.S.C. § 1385, original at 20 Stat. 152) signed on June 18, 1878, by President Rutherford B. Hayes which limits the powers of the federal government in the use of federal military personnel to enforce domestic policies within the United States. The Act was passed as an amendment to an army appropriation bill following the end of Reconstruction and was updated in 1956 and 1981…

Except in the rare case of mass armed insurrection or severe civil strife, troops under federal command are simply not permitted to be deployed against civilians by reason of a statute directed at U.S. ground forces: “The Posse Comitatus Act is a United States federal law (18 U.S.C. § 1385, original at 20 Stat. 152) signed on June 18, 1878, by President Rutherford B. Hayes which limits the powers of the federal government in the use of federal military personnel to enforce domestic policies within the United States. The Act was passed as an amendment to an army appropriation bill following the end of Reconstruction and was updated in 1956 and 1981…

“The Act does not prevent the Army National Guard or the Air National Guard under state authority from acting in a law enforcement capacity within its home state or in an adjacent state if invited by that state's governor.” Wikipedia. But that did not stop Donald Trump last Spring from ordering U.S. Park Police and National Guard troops under federal command, with the use of tear gas, to clear away a peaceful protest in Lafayette Park (near the White House), pushing them away for no apparent reason (pictured above). The reason: the President wanted to clear a path to a nearby Episcopal church for a photo op of his holding a Bible while standing in front of a house of worship. Why were ground troops deployed to counter peaceful civilians? We really never got a straight answer to that question.

The threat of using federal troops to enforce Donald Trump’s continuance in office after his thorough defeat in November became a hot topic of discussion until the January 20th inauguration of Joseph Biden as President. Trump was, after all, Commander in Chief of all U.S. military forces. Would troops rally under a direct order from the President? Would general officers be required to buy into the President’s baseless statements that the election was fraudulent and that he was the rightful victor? Would the Posse Comitatus Act require Army flag officers to resist such a presidential directive? Or was the mere claim of fraudulent voting sufficient civilian unrest to justify Army forces from stepping in to hold Trump in office? Fortunately, that confrontation did not take place, and soon the nation was distracted by the January 6th assault on the Capitol.

In several states, with the focus now on Arizona, Republicans have been handed the November ballots for their own recount. In April. They will undoubtedly cull through those voting records to determine which ballots they choose to throw out – for fabricated reasons that escaped the vote counters (and even the GOP election officials and governors who certified the results) – enough Biden ballots to support the ex-President’s “big lie.” Effectively, state officials are handing these ballots to conspiracy theorists to make a determination of legitimacy… which I will predict will instead result in the rejection of just enough ballots to support Trump.

With the majority of GOP Senators and House Representatives continuing to support the notion of widespread election fraud – despite a uniform set of over 60 judicial rulings (many from Trump-appointed judges) rejecting that theory for a complete lack of evidence – and as many red states are busy reconfiguring their voting laws to exclude as many likely categories of traditional Democratic voters as possible, the rumblings of insurrection are growing louder. 

If enough right-wing diehards, with well-armed and trained militia in tow, believe the manufactured evidence that is in process in support of “Trump was elected” and lost only because of the “big steal,” will that provoke the sporadic violence that could easily escalated into another civil war? And if so, what role would the U.S. military (with more than a few soldiers believing that Trump won the November election) play in quelling or joining in the insurrection? Or is this non-sensical speculation of events that will never happen? Are the exceptions to the Posse Comitatus Act broad enough for federally controlled ground forces to rally? To whose orders?

Oh, and there was this moment in time early during the rising tide of COVID-19 infections, when state and federal officials feared the worst. Writing for the April 24th Los Angeles Times, journalist Paul Pringle and Alene Tchekmedyian stumbled across this story: “In March of last year, California National Guard members awaited orders from Sacramento headquarters to make preparations for any civil unrest that might arise from the outbreak of the coronavirus… The members expected directives to ready ground troops to help state and local authorities respond to disturbances triggered by resistance to stay-at-home rules or panic over empty store shelves.

“But then came an unusual order: The air branch of the Guard was told to place an F-15C fighter jet on an alert status for a possible domestic mission, according to four Guard sources with direct knowledge of the matter… Those sources said the order didn’t spell out the mission but, given the aircraft’s limitations, they understood it to mean the plane could be deployed to terrify and disperse protesters by flying low over them at window-rattling speeds, with its afterburners streaming columns of flames.

“Fighter jets have occasionally been used that way in combat zones in Iraq and Afghanistan, they said… Deploying an F-15C, an air-to-air combat jet based at the Guard’s 144th Fighter Wing in Fresno, to frighten demonstrators in this country would have been an inappropriate use of the military against U.S. civilians, the sources said…

“Deploying an F-15C, an air-to-air combat jet based at the Guard’s 144th Fighter Wing in Fresno, to frighten demonstrators in this country would have been an inappropriate use of the military against U.S. civilians, the sources said.

“They said the jet was also placed on an alert status — fueled and ready for takeoff — for possible responses to protests over the murder of George Floyd by a police officer and to any unrest sparked by the Nov. 3 presidential election… ‘It would have been a completely illegal order that disgraced the military,’ one source said. ‘It could look like we’re threatening civilians.’

“‘That’s something that would happen in the Soviet Union,’ said a second of The Times’ sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity because they feared retaliation from their superiors. ‘Our military is used to combat foreign aggressors.’… The sources said the directives from Guard headquarters made their way down orally or in text messages, rather than in formal written orders, which was unusual and heightened their concerns that the jet would be used inappropriately.

“Maj. Gen. David Baldwin, who leads the California Guard, did not respond directly to interview requests for this story… A spokesman for Baldwin, Lt. Col. Jonathan Shiroma, denied that the F-15C was placed on an alert status for a potential response to civil disturbances… ‘We do not use our planes to frighten or intimidate civilians,’ Shiroma wrote in reply to emailed questions from The Times.” Those final orders never came. The paper trail was thin, because the entire process was kept as oral or unofficial as possible. The problem is the specter of involving U.S. troops to support political policy and thwart elected officials in applying decisions that right-wing conservatives oppose. 

Could an autocratic president, or an autocratic ex-president with claims to continued authority, literally use federal forces to usurp the elected civilian government? To sidestep First Amendment protections under the guise of “following orders”? Could such a president or ex-president use the notorious Sedition Act of 1798 to seize power? Would a GOP gridlocked Congress even entertain legislation further to limit military involvement in civilian governance? There is enough ambiguity in the system to “justify” a de facto military coup.

I’m Peter Dekom, and for those Americans who believe “it can’t happen here,” I suggest that they read their history books for the era leading up to the 1861 inception of our own Civil War.

Bad Where We Seldom Look

The Himalayas are a territory disputed by three nuclear powers: India, China and Pakistan. The first serious conflict between India and China was an all-out war in 1962, before either nation had nuclear weapons, over territorial claims in the border region. Over the years, China has chiseled away at the border, skirmishes rising and falling over time, most recently in Chinese aggression resulting in a military exchange which purportedly left 20 Indian soldiers dead and 76 injured (18 seriously) in June of last year. A ceasefire was ultimately implemented. 

The Himalayas are a territory disputed by three nuclear powers: India, China and Pakistan. The first serious conflict between India and China was an all-out war in 1962, before either nation had nuclear weapons, over territorial claims in the border region. Over the years, China has chiseled away at the border, skirmishes rising and falling over time, most recently in Chinese aggression resulting in a military exchange which purportedly left 20 Indian soldiers dead and 76 injured (18 seriously) in June of last year. A ceasefire was ultimately implemented. 

The tension between mostly Hindu India and mostly Islamic Pakistan has been over a primarily Indian Muslim border state, Kashmir. When India was granted independence from Great Britain in 1947, sectarian violence literally forced a partition of the subcontinent into and new Islamic state in the north, Pakistan (east and west), versus Hindu India. People fled for their lives in a massive migration to escape violence. In 1971, a full-on war erupted between these now separate nations, as East Pakistan (also Islamic) declared itself separate (now as Bangladesh) from West Pakistan (which simply became “Pakistan” thereafter). But the Indo-Pakistani conflicts over Kashmir never stopped, usually exchanges of police action, insurrection and terrorism. 

The most famous terrorist attack in support of Kashmiri separatists took place in 2008 in Mumbai, “a series of terrorist attacks that took place in November 2008, when 10 members of Lashkar-e-Taiba, an Islamic extremist organisation, carried out 12 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks lasting four days across Mumbai. The attacks, which drew widespread global condemnation, began on Wednesday 26 November and lasted until Saturday 29 November 2008. At least 174 people died, including 9 attackers, and more than 300 were wounded.” Wikipedia. Of late, India’s Hindu Nationalist Party (Bharatiya Janata Party – BJP) has been in power since 2014 and is showing increasing hostility to a sizeable Muslim population still living in India.

The Himalayan region was further impacted in 1961 when China occupied and annexed the independent state of Tibet. Also a Himalayan nation, Nepal walks a perilous line having made treaties with both China and India to maintain its independence. It transitioned from being a Hindu Kingdom in 2008 into a secular democratic republic, adopting a modern constitution in 2015. And we cannot forget about the landlocked monarchy of Bhutan in the eastern Himalayas.

In addition to the obvious regional political volatility, this region has suffered from profoundly disastrous environmental issues. The Brahmaputra River (known in China as the Yarlung Tsangpo) flows from the mountainous region in northeastern India, “from Assam to Bengal where it meets the Ganges River to form the world's largest delta and finally flows into the Bay of Bengal in the south.” Wikipedia.  Because of deforestation along its banks, seasonal flood waters can be catastrophic, putting most of Bangladesh underwater. “Each year in Bangladesh about 26,000 square kilometres (10,000 sq mi) (around 18% of the country) is flooded, killing over 5,000 people and destroying more than seven million homes. During severe floods the affected area may exceed 75% of the country, as was seen in 1998. The floods have caused devastation in Bangladesh throughout history, especially in 1951, 1987, 1988 and 1998.” Wikipedia. Pretty nasty. But let’s add under-planned infrastructure development (particularly hydroelectric dams) plus the massive environmental damage from the most recent ravages of climate change to this mountainous region. If things were bad without the latest damage, they just got a whole lot worse.

As snow melts prematurely and in sheer unprecedented volume, normal rivers and streams become landlocked tsunamis, pressing unparalleled death and destruction across farms and villages. Writing for the March 27th Financial Times, Benjamin Park, explains the new regional environmental horrors.  Take for example the small Himalayan Indian village of Reni: “A rockslide in the nearby mountains triggered a tsunami of water, stones and mud that hurtled through the steep river valley dividing the village, consuming those unable to escape.

“The torrent traveled downriver, picking up pace as it tore through a bridge and two hydropower plants, nine and 15 miles away from the rockslide. More than 200 people are believed to have been consumed by the lethal sludge. Most of the bodies are missing somewhere in the gray crater it left behind…

“They say an explosive cocktail of climate change and aggressive road and dam building in the geologically unstable range threatens not just villages like Reni but also the people, economies and security of the eight countries in the greater Hindu Kush Himalayan region.

“The mountains run from Afghanistan in the west to Myanmar in the east, forming the backbones of countries including India, China and Pakistan. Rivers like the Ganges, Indus and the… Brahmaputra…  sustain more than 1.5 billion people and industries powering some of the world’s fastest economic growth. They also traverse the world’s most volatile geopolitical fault lines.

“Climate change is amplifying the dangers. Temperatures in the Himalayas have risen faster than in other mountain ranges, according to Maharaj Pandit, a professor of environmental studies at the University of Delhi. The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, a regional intergovernmental body, says the region will warm above the global average.

“India’s recent deadly flash flood was a combination of ‘geological activities … the effects of climate change, as well as the unsustainable infrastructure development that has accelerated the process,’ said Pema Gyamtsho, ICIMOD’s director-general and a Bhutanese politician. ‘We know the Himalayan region is very vulnerable, but we’re not taking that into consideration.’… Ecosystem peril.” The pandemic has taken its toll, mostly in the larger and heavily populated cities in the region, but this environmental damage, which seems to escalate over time, threatens the very habitability of much of the region. Farmers and villagers may be forced from their home, creating politically and economic strains from that possible migration. Watch this area carefully!

I’m Peter Dekom, and given the interconnectivity that already links the world and its environmental problems together, what happens on the other side of the world will, sooner rather than later, impact all of us here in the United States.