Denial, out-and-out lying, shooting from the hip and espousing inane medical and conspiracy theories, suggesting serious infectious challenges are merely hoaxes or only of marginal risk, rejecting medically prudent prevention and avoidance protocols and predicting a short-term end to major peril will generate passionate followers, unwilling to relinquish false hopes, some ready to fight to the death. But where a democratic election process sustains – a genuine question mark in many US states – these failures can cost a national leader an election. Addressing the issues realistically can also salvage a fading political career… or at least breath more life into an otherwise failing campaign.
In Israel, no longer able to claim the full support of a US President, Benjamin Netanyahu eked out “just-short-of-a-coalition-majority” primarily on his successful effort to make a coronavirus vaccine generally available to all who wanted it. His too-close-for-comfort relationship with Donald Trump had his picture with the US President plastered on walls and posters everywhere in the last several elections. Facing a criminal trial, Netanyahu’s Likud coalition seems to have generated as many votes as it did mostly on his effective COVID response.
In the United States, Trump’s severely polarizing presidency might have pulled out a repeat performance of the 2016 election. His followers were more passionate than ever. His “business as normal” mantra resonated with so many COVID-slammed Americans struggling with unemployment and an inability to reopen their businesses. But in the end, a nation with 4% of the world’s population generating 25% of the planet’s COVID infection rate and 20% of its fatalities became an unpleasant truth for enough Americans to end his presidency by a substantial margin, false claims of election fraud notwithstanding.
The Donald Trump of South America, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, mirrored the former US President’s denial and marginalization of the pandemic. Like Trump, Bolsonaro also faced a brief bout with the virus (though substantially less severe than what impacted Trump) yet continued to minimize the extent and intensity of the pandemic within his own country. As in the United States, Bolsonaro’s right-wing constituency marched lockstep with their leader’s position, but there was a slow erosion among local leaders of the same party. Brazil now claims the second highest infection rate and death toll – only the United States is worse – from the COVID virus, and a dramatic failure to prepare and contain this plague just might make Brazil a breeding ground for vaccine resistant strains of the virus (one significant such strain has already been unleashed on the world). And hence a global threat, a potential new strain that just might render the current vaccines ineffective.
The paucity of vaccines in Brazil has led to slightly under 9% of the population being vaccinated as the pandemic surges again. Bolsonaro was backed into a corner: “The president's popularity has plummeted over his handling of the pandemic, with 43% of Brazilians saying Mr Bolsonaro is to blame for the Covid crisis, according to a Datafolha poll published in mid-March… His government is in turmoil. On 16 March a new health minister took office - the fourth since the pandemic began. Marcelo Queiroga, a cardiologist, replaced an army officer with no medical training.
“On Monday [3/31] the defence and foreign ministers resigned, prompting a cabinet reshuffle. The foreign minister was accused of mishandling relations with China, resulting in a shortage of Covid-19 vaccines… The defence minister clashed with Mr Bolsonaro over the issue of the armed forces' loyalty, which he said should be directed to upholding the constitution rather than supporting the president personally… They were followed on Tuesday by the heads of the army, navy and air force. It is believed to be the first time in Brazilian history that the heads of the armed forces have stood down together over a disagreement with the president…
“The president is a divisive figure who has sparked controversy with racist, homophobic and misogynistic comments… President Bolsonaro has consistently opposed lockdown measures, arguing that the damage to the economy would be worse than the effects of the coronavirus itself… He has also told Brazilians to ‘stop whining’ about the situation.
“But last week [end of March], Mr Bolsonaro, who has previously raised doubts about vaccines and defended unproven drugs as treatment, said that he would make 2021 the year of vaccinations. ‘Very soon we'll resume our normal lives,’ he said.” BBC.com, March 31st. But the defection among senior military and government officials, his clear unpopularity, have left a country in shambles, exceptionally short of that Chinese vaccine and a President facing an existential crisis. Luckily for Bolsonaro, the next election is not until October 2, 2022, but whether he can get “from here to there” is a big question. A military coup is not out of the question.
How he gets sufficient vaccines and builds an effective program of distribution across a widely spread-out population – polices for which his senior appointed government officials are simply not prepared – will be the test of his survival. Putting such implementational deployment in the hands of a pandemic denier is not exactly a recipe for success. The crisis in Brazil – and hence for the world – is far from contained, and there are no realistic plans for how to get there. But Mr. Bolsonaro will soon know that his past will continue to haunt him, and his pledges to vaccinate his people will be mere words… without some pretty short-term success. Will this be a lesson for populists living in a world of denial and conspiracy theories? Millions of Americans do not seem to have been persuaded, even as hospitals begin filling up again from the latest surge. Red state politicians seem unable to face reality and tell their constituents the truth.
I’m Peter Dekom, and you have to think that in an over-populated world, perhaps nature is fostering failed leadership in order to cull the herd.
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