The Republican evangelical base is solidly loyal to their party. They believe Biden stole the election through technology and violating the US and relevant constitution to get lots of people to vote who did not have the legal right to vote. A sizeable number believe the Capitol insurrectionists were justified in their assault, that it may well have been their duty to take down an illegally elected government. They also represent a large section of vaccine doubters, COVID marginalizers, climate change deniers and people who believe that transgender people have mental problems, that gay marriage should be forbidden, that school prayer should be reinstated, abortion outlawed and that Black Americans are thoroughly unjustified in their claims of unrelenting injustice and wrong to “cancel” white culture. Their ranks are heavily peppered with white supremacists and more than a few militia members ready to “take back” America. And without this constituency, deeply encouraged in each of these “values” by Donald Trump, the GOP probably could not win even red state elections and most certainly would have no shot at the presidency.
The fiscal conservatives and more moderate Republicans are current virtually unrepresented in Congress and most red state legislatures and governorships. But these values and hence the GOP itself skew older than the general population. Older with many in the oldest demographic that is dying away. Even as the Republican Party is electing more women to Congress, their popularity among even white suburban women has faded. The fiscal and monetary policies of giving more cash to the rich now flies in the face of failed job creation and the highest level of income inequality in our nation’s history.
But the greatest threat to the GOP are the trends of a better educated set of younger generations plagued with absurd student loans, housing unaffordability and realistically facing the increasingly harsh ravages of climate change. They are more socially tolerant and less optimistic about their futures. The GOP, simply, is on the wrong side of history on the most important issues that concern them. Thomas Patterson, writing for the March 31st Los Angeles Times, looks at this reality:
“Republicans’ internal feud could wreck their chances in the next election cycle. Recent polls show a drop in the GOP’s favorability rating and a decline in the number of Americans who call themselves Republicans. Nevertheless, these developments pale alongside a long-term trend that could wreck the GOP for decades.
“The trend hasn’t been seen in American politics since the 1930s. Back then, Democrats swept into office on voters’ anger at the GOP’s limp response to the misery brought on by the Great Depression. Franklin D. Roosevelt’s election in 1932 marked the first time in 80 years that a Democratic presidential nominee had won a popular-vote majority, a feat FDR would repeat in the next three elections. But it was a related development that ruined the Republicans’ long-term chances. Young voters backed the Democratic Party by more than 3 to 2 in the 1932-44 elections, and they maintained their party loyalty throughout their lives. Election after election until the late 1960s, their votes carried Democrats to victory.
“It has happened again. Exit polls indicate that voters under 30 backed the Democratic presidential nominee by more than 3 to 2 over the past five elections. And as they’ve aged, they’ve continued to vote Democratic. This cohort now includes every adult under the age of 45 — half of the nation’s 209 million adults.
“Young voters carried Joe Biden to victory in 2020. According to exit polls, the two-party vote among those under 45 years of age split 57% to 43% in Biden’s favor, whereas those 45 and older went for Trump by a 52%-48% margin. What kept the election somewhat close was that older voters turned out at a somewhat higher rate.
“But older voters will gradually die out of the electorate, and there are few Republican reinforcements in sight. Pollsters find that most young adults hold positions at odds with those of the GOP. Eighty-three percent support gay marriage, 81% back giving permanent legal status to Dreamers, and 70% would raise taxes on the wealthy. Three times as many young adults say that “bold action” is needed on climate change as say it’s not needed. By 7 to 1, Gallup found 18-to-29-year-olds supported the racial protests triggered by the death of George Floyd while in police custody… The list could go on, but the point would be the same. The GOP’s agenda has no appeal to most young adults.
“Even glimmers of Republican hope diminish upon a closer look. White voters are the GOP’s most loyal supporters. But in 2020, according to exit polls , the margin among white voters under 30 was only 9 percentage points in Trump’s favor, compared with his 17-point margin among those 45 and older… Half of today’s young voters are minority group members, and they are staunchly Democratic. Among those under 30 , 87% of Black voters, 83% of Asian American voters and 73% of Latino voters cast a Democratic ballot in the 2020 presidential race.
“Rather than reaching out to minorities, Republicans have sought to dilute their influence through all manner of dirty tricks. The idea of disenfranchising minorities was first hatched by the Republican-controlled legislatures of Indiana and Georgia. They enacted laws requiring residents to have a government-issued photo ID in order to register to vote, although it is clear that minority groups are far less likely than white Americans to have a passport or driver’s license. And the GOP is now doubling down on voter suppression. In Republican-controlled state legislatures in 2021, the Brennan Center for Justice counts 253 bills that would limit ballot access by, for example, curtailing mail-in voting, early voting and absentee voting.”
As liberal as I am, I do not believe that one overwhelmingly dominant political party is good for this nation. The GOP is already licking its chops assuming that, as with most mid-term elections, they will recapture a Senate majority and perhaps replicate that feat in the House. With voter suppression and gerrymandering, they just might. A conservative court might sustain these anti-democracy manipulations, they believe. But inevitably, they are alienating an increasingly large demographic segment with rather dramatically different objectives and fears. Nevertheless, Trump’s dominating presence and the risk of losing without catering to extremists just might unravel the Republican Party, unless they wake up… an unlikely near-term event.
I’m Peter Dekom, and if you need to manipulate the vote to gain or hold power, you are on the wrong side of history and destined to fail… sooner rather than later.
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