Russia’s Polar-ice-ation

In the summer of 2007, two Russian mini submarines descended 14,000 feet somewhere near and under the North Pole to plant a titanium Russian flag (see above). Moscow claimed the land under the pole as part of an undersea outcropping of a mountainous range that emanated from Russia. As climate change accelerated, Russia was one of several countries benefitting from global warming. Tundra, which otherwise released legions of ultra-heavy greenhouse methane into the atmosphere, became arable farmland. Undersea resources were easier to access. What we call the Northwest Passage began to open up seasonally and threatened to remain open for most of the year. It became a prize that Russia was seemingly beginning to claim and defend. But ice breakers were changing mythology into reality. And that little flag-planting gesture was the beginning of much larger Russian aspirations.

In the summer of 2007, two Russian mini submarines descended 14,000 feet somewhere near and under the North Pole to plant a titanium Russian flag (see above). Moscow claimed the land under the pole as part of an undersea outcropping of a mountainous range that emanated from Russia. As climate change accelerated, Russia was one of several countries benefitting from global warming. Tundra, which otherwise released legions of ultra-heavy greenhouse methane into the atmosphere, became arable farmland. Undersea resources were easier to access. What we call the Northwest Passage began to open up seasonally and threatened to remain open for most of the year. It became a prize that Russia was seemingly beginning to claim and defend. But ice breakers were changing mythology into reality. And that little flag-planting gesture was the beginning of much larger Russian aspirations.

Arctic resources were now being exposed. The ability to transship goods through the Northwest Passage has long since been dreamed about, attempted without success, until 2009, when melting sea ice first made the journey possible. Canada borders most of the passage and maintains that it controls those regions, but Russia had already begun building a fleet of large, nuclear powered ice breakers specifically to control those waters. No other nation was remotely competing in constructing such vessels. Was the race on… or had Russia effectively already won?

Lest we believe that Russian aspirations in the region were benign, satellite imagery focused on Russian Arctic efforts prove otherwise. Military bases were and continue to be expanded and constructed. “Russia is amassing unprecedented military might in the Arctic and testing its newest weapons in a region freshly ice-free due to the climate emergency, in a bid to secure its northern coast and open up a key shipping route from Asia to Europe.

“Weapons experts and Western officials have expressed particular concern about one Russian 'super-weapon,' the Poseidon 2M39 torpedo. Development of the torpedo is moving fast with Russian President Vladimir Putin requesting an update on a ‘key stage’ of the tests in February from his defense minister Sergei Shoigu, with further tests planned this year, according to multiple reports in state media.

“This unmanned stealth torpedo is powered by a nuclear reactor and intended by Russian designers to sneak past coastal defenses -- like those of the US -- on the sea floor… The device is intended to deliver a warhead of multiple megatons, according to Russian officials, causing radioactive waves that would render swathes of the target coastline uninhabitable for decades… In November, Christopher A Ford, then assistant secretary of state for International Security and Non-Proliferation, said the Poseidon is designed to ‘inundate U.S. coastal cities with radioactive tsunamis.’” CNN.com, April 5th. Russia was ready with new large military airbases, missile launching facilities and ice breakers… almost 50 now, and the newest ones are huge and nuclear powered, a vast multiple of any US equivalent. 

“Satellite images provided to CNN by space technology company Maxar detail a stark and continuous build-up of Russian military bases and hardware on the country's Arctic coastline, together with underground storage facilities likely for the Poseidon and other new high-tech weapons. The Russian hardware in the High North area includes bombers and MiG31BM jets, and new radar systems close to the coast of Alaska.

“The Russian build-up has been matched by NATO and US troop and equipment movements. American B-1 Lancer bombers stationed in Norway's Ørland air base have recently completed missions in the eastern Barents Sea, for example. The US military's stealth Seawolf submarine was acknowledged by US officials in August as being in the area.

“A senior State Department official told CNN: ‘There's clearly a military challenge from the Russians in the Arctic,’ including their refitting of old Cold War bases and build-up of new facilities on the Kola Peninsula near the city of Murmansk. ‘That has implications for the United States and its allies, not least because it creates the capacity to project power up to the North Atlantic,’ the official said.” CNN.com Protests from the United States, Canada and several impacted European nations against such Russian expansion were simply ignored.

“The satellite images show the slow and methodical strengthening of airfields and ‘trefoil’ bases -- with a shamrock-like design, daubed in the red, white and blue of the Russian flag -- at several locations along Russia's Arctic coast over the past five years. The bases are inside Russian territory and part of a legitimate defense of its borders and coastline. US officials have voiced concern, however, that the forces might be used to establish de facto control over areas of the Arctic that are further afield, and soon to be ice-free… ‘Russia is refurbishing Soviet-era airfields and radar installations, constructing new ports and search-and-rescue centers, and building up its fleet of nuclear- and conventionally-powered icebreakers,’ Lt. Col. Thomas Campbell, a Pentagon spokesman, told CNN.” CNN.com.

In January, one of Russia giant ice breakers, the 50 Let Pobedy (50 years of victory) braved the Northwest Passage… in the dead of winter, a first. Here’s the problem: there is no nation or consortium of nations that can match the Russian presence in the Arctic. No one else has as many ice breakers… and there are not enough of these unique vessels being manufactured outside of Russia. What about the food potential, mineral wealth and petroleum reserves – coupled with the potential of the severe ecological risks associated with harvesting/extracting these assets – that lie within this fragile northern environment? Russia claims those too.

Simply put, Russia’s overwhelming military presence in the Arctic may just represent de facto control of the Northwest Passage and its regional resources. Absent a very nasty military confrontation, which could trigger a shooting war, the other regional powers (including the United States) are woefully underprepared to mount a counterclaim or to neutralize what really should be international waters. Can this be resolved within the framework of the United Nations… or is this a bigger version of the Russian grab of Ukraine’s Crimea. Standby!

I’m Peter Dekom, and it is stunning to me that during the last four years, the Russian Arctic build-up was simply ignored by the United States… a product of a misaligned “bromance” between Russian and American leaders?