As Negotiations with the North Went South

 Donald Trump’s purported bromance with the man he had once derisively called “Little Rocket Man,” punctuated with his several meetings with the North Korean dictator culminating at the above photo op in the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas, did little more than raise Kim Jong-un’s stature on the global stage. 

There was no treaty, no accord, no reduction of nuclear weapons, no long-term limitation on the North’s continued development of its rocket/missile program or its development toward submarines capable of carrying missiles with nuclear warheads and certainly no reestablishment of meaningful diplomatic relations with the US. Despite Trump’s claim that he had accomplished more than any other US president in dealing with North Korea, today, even after a voluntary moratorium on high-level testing, the North is more weaponized and increasingly capable of deploying its nuclear arsenal than ever.

Recently, Kim finally acknowledged a haunting reality for his people: “North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has admitted his country is facing food shortages that he blamed on last year's typhoon and floods, just months after he warned North Koreans about a looming potential crisis… Kim told the plenary meeting of the Workers' Party of Korea the nation was experiencing a ‘tense food situation,’ Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Wednesday [6/16].

“The secretive country has cut itself off from the rest of the world even more during the pandemic. Speaking on Tuesday [6/17], Kim said the conditions and environment that North Korea was facing ‘have become worse upon entering this year,’ even though its economy has, on the whole, shown improvement… The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has estimated that North Korea is short of about 860,000 tons of food, enough for just over two months of supplies.” CNN.com, June 17th. 

The COVID-driven border closing with China has not been lifted. The supply of needed foodstuffs is severely limited. As his people literally face starvation, Kim needs a distraction, and blaming the United States has been his “go-to” policy in the past. He played Donald Trump for a fool, and perhaps he is hoping that Joe Biden just might be his next patsy.

“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered his government to be prepared for both dialogue and confrontation with the Biden administration — but more for confrontation, state media reported Friday [6/18]… The report came days after the U.S. and others urged Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear program and return to talks… Kim’s statement indicates that he is likely to push to increase his nuclear arsenal and raise pressure on Washington to give up what North Korea considers a hostile policy toward it, but he’ll also prepare for talks to resume, some experts say.

“On Thursday [6/17], during an ongoing meeting of the ruling party, Kim analyzed in detail the policy tendencies of the U.S. under President Biden and clarified steps to be taken in relations with Washington, the Korean Central News Agency said. It did not specify the steps.

“Kim ‘stressed the need to get prepared for both dialogue and confrontation, especially to get fully prepared for confrontation in order to protect the dignity of our state’ and ensure national security, the agency said… Kim Jong Un has recently threatened to enlarge his nuclear arsenal and build high-tech weapons targeting the U.S. mainland if Washington refuses to abandon its current policy toward North Korea.

“In March, the North Korean military performed its first short-range ballistic missile tests in a year. But Pyongyang is maintaining a moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear tests, in an indication that Kim wants to keep prospects for diplomacy alive.

“Kwak Gil Sup, head of One Korea Center, a website specializing in North Korean affairs, wrote on Facebook that Kim’s statement suggested that he’s taking a two-track approach of bolstering military capability and preparing for talks. But he said Kim is more likely to focus on boosting military strength and repeating his demand for the U.S. to withdraw its hostile policy than to hastily return to talks.” Associated Press, June 19th. Is phased reduction of nuclear weapons possible? Perhaps, but it would only be partial and depend heavily on a reduction in US nuclear weapons in the region as well plus a negotiated lifting of US economic sanctions. The reality is that trying completely to denuclearize the North is a train that has long since left the station.

I’m Peter Dekom, and there will always be a gigantic trust issue in any possible agreement given North Korea’s history of keeping its word.