Code Red for Humanity: Much of Climate Change is Severe & Irreversible for Centuries If Not Millennia
"It is a statement of fact, we cannot be any more certain;
it is unequivocal and indisputable that humans are warming the planet."
Prof Ed Hawkins, from the University of Reading, UK and Contributing Author to the
United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
You don’t have to watch entire towns disappear in California’s Dixie Fire or the same level of fires in Greece or Turkey still raging as I write this blog. Or succumb to the massive flood damage all over the United States, Europe and Asia. Or face the searing heat waves and unending drought (shouldn’t we call it what it is: desertification?). Or face coastal storm surges/erosion as tropical storms, laden with much more water, decimate the land below. Or witness melting glaciers dump water when we don’t want it while preventing natural off-season water (ice and snow) storage when we do… To know climate change is real, devastating, expensive and getting worse.
It is certain now that the world will face that permanent average temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), a magic climate change barrier that we have been warned about for decades. All of the above horribles are products of our almost reaching that tragic temperature average. But unless we act immediately, we are also likely to elevate to a vastly more devastating 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) and perhaps even beyond. Even with the average anticipated increases noted above, some regions on earth are facing a more devastating but equally likely near-term spike of a total increase of 5.5 degrees Celsius (9.9 Fahrenheit).
We used to think of just farmers experiencing drought or vast tracts of rural land and forests, lightly inhabited, perhaps already arid lands in Asia, Latin America as where the damage from climate change would be the most heavily felt. Sure, water shortages might reach our cities, but most of the suffering, many believed, would be relegated to the poorest nations on earth. Not us. We had technology on our side. But even if all you are looking at is hard dollar costs, one 2017 study concluded the United States could lose 2.3 percent of its Gross Domestic Product for each degree Celsius increase in global warming. Some would double that number. Forget about the death, extreme discomfort, disease and destruction that goes along with these changes. Well, wealthy countries, I have some bad news for you: “As the world staggers through another summer of extreme weather, experts are noticing something different: 2021’s onslaught is hitting harder and in places that have been spared global warming’s wrath in the past.
“Wealthy countries including the United States, Canada, Germany and Belgium are joining poorer and more vulnerable nations on a growing list of places suffering extreme weather events that scientists say have some connection to human-caused climate change.
“‘It is not only a poor-country problem — it’s now very obviously a rich-country problem,’ said Debby Guha-Sapir, founder of the international disaster database at the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at Catholic University of Louvain in Belgium. ‘[The rich] are getting whacked.’
“Killer floods hit China, but hundreds also drowned in parts of Germany and Belgium not used to being inundated. Canada and the Pacific Northwest had what climate scientist Zeke Hausfather called ‘scary’ heat that soared past triple digits, shattering records and accompanied by unusual wildfires. Now, southern Europe is seeing unprecedented heat and fire.
“And peak Atlantic hurricane and U.S. wildfire seasons are only just starting… When what would become Hurricane Elsa formed July 1, it broke last year’s record for the earliest fifth-named Atlantic storm. Colorado State University has already increased its forecast for the number of named Atlantic storms.” Seth Borenstein and Frank Jordans for the Associated Press, August 9th. Even the climate change damage to just the United States is in the trillions of dollars each year.
What can we do? Maybe we cannot avoid the 1.5 degrees Celsius number, but UN Secretary General António Guterres tells us: "If we combine forces now, we can avert climate catastrophe. But, as today's report makes clear, there is no time for delay and no room for excuses.” Compliance requires action, often expensive action. We do not have to hit 2 degrees Celsius. Yet both impoverished nations and big business are resisting doing what it takes.
For example, here in the US, big money, backed by the Republican party, is resisting climate change regulations and infrastructure expenditures. As the Biden administration sets new guidelines for automotive emissions, since the transportation sector is the largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, there are limits without more stringent regulations as to how much can be accomplished. There is a great deal of reliance on the voluntary cooperation of the automotive sector. “‘Trusting auto companies to comply with a voluntary pledge is like believing your New Year’s weight loss resolution is a binding contract,’ said Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological Diversity’s Safe Climate Transport Campaign.” Los Angeles Times, August 8th. The numbers just keep getting worse, but it is the results of those numbers that should scare us all.
The headlines, as cited by the BBC.com (August 8th), in the UN’ just-released IPCC report:
Global surface temperature was 1.09C higher in the decade between 2011-2020 than between 1850-1900.
The past five years have been the hottest on record since 1850
The recent rate of sea level rise has nearly tripled compared with 1901-1971
Human influence is "very likely" (90%) the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea-ice
It is "virtually certain" that hot extremes including heatwaves have become more frequent and more intense since the 1950s, while cold events have become less frequent and less severe
The IPCC report “also makes clear that the warming we've experienced to date has made changes to many of our planetary support systems that are irreversible on timescales of centuries to millennia… The oceans will continue to warm and become more acidic. Mountain and polar glaciers will continue melting for decades or centuries… ‘The consequences will continue to get worse for every bit of warming,’ said Prof Hawkins… ‘And for many of these consequences, there's no going back.’” I know we are mired in a pandemic, but if we do not address climate change, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
I’m Peter Dekom, and exactly what are you telling your elected representative in Congress you want to see them support when it comes to climate change?
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