Russia’s track record over its former sphere of influence/Soviet territory leaves little doubt of Vladimir Putin’s ambition to absorb and annex as many of the former CIS counties back into Russian control as he can. Russia invaded and seized a part of Georgia in 2008. His military subsequent forced annexation has been concentrated on Ukraine. Despite a treaty between Russia and Ukraine – in exchange for Ukraine’s removing its nuclear weapons stockpile to Russia – to respect each other’s territorial integrity, using the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians, Russia forcibly and shamelessly annexed the Crimean peninsula six year later: “the Russian invasion and subsequent annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine… occurred between February and March 2014. This event took place in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and is part of the wider Russo-Ukrainian conflict.” Wikipedia
At first Crimeans celebrated. But Russian oppression soon reversed that joy. The Western World, led by the United States, responded with severe economic sanctions, which punished the Russia people, but sacrifice in support of Mother Russia is a long-standing practice there. Putin remains one of the richest individuals on earth, personally unscathed by sanctions. Putin smiled at European dependence on Russian natural gas as the only affordable way (via a pipeline) for most of Europe to fuel heating for its homes in increasingly cold winters. He has leverage.
Russia has pushed upgrading its nuclear weapons and building hypersonic missiles that can elude defense systems – purportedly more modern than any US counterpart – for years. Putin eyed the richest part of Ukraine, in the east, and began his moves in April of 2014 using local agitators and Russian soldiers (“little green men” – pictured above) dressed as Ukrainians, to tear at Kiev: “On April 12, armed pro-Russian militants seized government buildings in a coordinated and professional operation conducted in six cities in eastern Ukraine. Many of the militants were outfitted in bullet-proof vests and camouflage uniforms with insignia removed and carrying Russian-origin weapons. These armed units, some wearing black and orange St. George’s ribbons associated with Russian Victory Day celebrations, have raised Russian and separatist flags over the buildings they seized, and called for referendums and union with Russia.
“Even more so than the seizure of main government buildings in Ukrainian regional capitals Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv last weekend [mid-April 2014], these operations bear many similarities to those that were carried out in Crimea in late February [2014] and culminated in Russia’s illegal military intervention and purported annexation of Crimea. In the earlier Crimean case, highly organized, well-equipped, and professional forces wearing Russian military uniforms, balaclavas, and military gear without identifying insignia moved in first to take control of Crimean government and security facilities before being later replaced by regular Russian military forces.” April 2014 Press Release by the US Department of State. There were additional consequences.
On July 17, 2014, halfway through a flight from Amsterdam to Malaysia, a passenger jet was shot down by a Russian-built missile over the war-torn Ukraine-Russia Border. All 298 people on board, most of whom were citizens of the Netherlands, died in the explosion. It was apparently a case of mistaken identity, but ground forces made the official investigation by Dutch and Malaysian authorities almost impossible to complete. Russia continues to covet at least eastern Ukraine. And perhaps Belarus as well.
In recent weeks, Russia has been building up its military forces on its border with Ukraine. Many believe that Russia is about to invade and annex part if not all of Ukraine, unafraid of any expected Western/NATO response. “Tensions over a Russian troop buildup along Ukraine’s border have been a focus of [U.S. Secretary of State Antony J.] Blinken’s weeklong Europe trip and topped the agenda of his meeting Wednesday [12/1] with NATO counterparts in Latvia. The Ukrainian government is seeking to align with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the West.
“‘We don’t know whether President Putin has made the decision to invade. We do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so on short order should he so decide,’ Blinken told reporters in Riga, Latvia’s capital. ‘We must prepare for all contingencies… We’re also urging Ukraine to continue to exercise restraint because, again, the Russian playbook is to claim provocation for something that they were planning to do all along…”
“Blinken said the U.S. has ‘made it clear to the Kremlin that we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high-impact economic measures that we’ve refrained from using in the past.’ He gave no details on what kind of ‘high impact’ sanctions would be considered… The European Union’s Parliament approved a nonbinding resolution in April to cut off Russia from the so-called SWIFT system of international payments if its troops entered Ukraine.” Associated Press, December 2nd. Coming on the approach of an exceptionally cold pre-winter season in Europe, Putin is probably counting on the continent’s desperate need for Russian natural gas to blunt the impact of any possible sanctions. His timing cannot accidental. Sanctions have failed to alter Russian aggression so far.
A scheduled video conference call on December 6th between Biden and Putin produced a Russian denial of any intention to invade Ukraine despite a massive troop build-up, countered by Biden’s pledge of extreme economic sanctions (noted above, as well as preventing some of Putin’s cronies from traveling). Russia complained about NATO’s intentions in the Ukraine… and there was always the threat of Russia’s cutting off its natural gas pipeline to the rest of Europe. Biden followed up his conference with Putin with calls to NATO leaders. While no one expects a Russian invasion anytime soon, at least not until the end of the Olympics… you never know.
As the world struggles with another rising COVID variant threat, as China builds up it forces in the South China Sea with its crosshairs focused on Taiwan, and as the United States continues to tear itself apart through irreconcilable polarization, Vladimir Putin just might smell an opportunity to continue to seize territory with little in the way of a meaningful deterrent.
December 19 from Doyle McMannus of the LA Times: "Last week, Russia sent the United States a list of its demands for defusing the crisis: a binding promise that Ukraine will never become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, plus the removal of all NATO troops and weapons from 14 Eastern European countries that have joined the alliance since 1997.
ReplyDeleteIt was not an encouraging sign. The demands were so extreme that they appeared intended for rejection — or, worse, as a pretext for invasion.
"None of this should come as a surprise.
Putin has raged against NATO’s steady expansion toward Russia’s borders for more than a decade. He appears to have decided that the alliance’s deepening relationship with Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, is the last straw." "Red" alert!