Revolting Facts – Do We Grid and Bear It

 

We all know that our power generating/transmission system is way out of date, crumbling, polluting as models of inefficiency continue to permeate our national grid. Although you may be generally aware about how our overall power generation system works, it doesn’t hurt to look at the numbers and the failures. And obvious inefficiencies.

“Power plants – coal, natural gas, petroleum or nuclear – work on [a similar] general principle. Energy-dense stuff is burned to release heat, which boils water into steam, which spins a turbine, which generates electricity. The thermodynamic limits of this process mean only two-thirds of the energy in the raw materials actually make it onto the grid in the form of electricity.” InsideEnergy.org.  In the United States, that’s an annual loss of about 22 quadrillion British Thermal Units (BTUs). 

Transmission wires are also major sources of power loss, but note that exceptionally high power lines – carrying tens of thousands of volts – are the most efficient carriers (losing only about 6% – 2% in transmission and 4% in distribution – or 69 trillion BTUs in the U.S.), rising to 12%-15% when the power is stepped down for local delivery. In countries like India, however, power transmission lines typically lose 30% of the power intended, some from very old and inefficient systems and some from electricity theft.

Here in the U.S., we face brownouts and blackouts during periods of heavy demand, notably the hottest days of summer and the coldest days of winter. Buildings here absorb 74% of our power grids’ electrical capacity. Because demand varies in accordance with weather patterns, the general rule interconnects the national power grid all across the land. A notable exception is almost all of Texas, which local legislators have purposely maintained as a standalone power system.

“Record cold temperatures plunged Texas into a power crisis [in February of 2021], with millions in the state losing power. The failure demonstrates the vulnerability of power grids to shifting weather patterns that come with climate change. However, the situation in Texas was made more complex by the fact that it is the only state in the country with its own power grid, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (two other grids, the Eastern Interconnection and Western Interconnection, cover the rest of the United States).” February 23, 2021 Report from the Harvard Kennedy School. The five-day outage also cost 246 lives.

Claims from Texas GOP Governor Greg Abbott that “alternative energy systems” were to blame were dispelled in a report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, according to a report from the Dallas-Fort Worth CBS affiliate on November 17th: “The report also partially rebuffed claims that wind and solar energy plants were primarily to blame for the outages [some wind turbines froze by reason of under-engineering to save money], stating that 58% of power generation failures were due to issues with natural gas fired units.

“Natural gas fired units were also responsible for nearly all unplanned generation outages. The report states that 87% of unplanned outages were due to natural gas production and processing issues, while the remaining 13% was due to issues with other fuel sources such as oil and coal.” The real culprit was the Texas GOP-led legislature’s and executive branch’s obsession against spending money to fix and upgrade a system long past its expected productive useful life, unable to cope with temperature extremes.

We now have a down payment towards upgrading our national grid and power system in the recently passed infrastructure bill. Numbers about possible additional efficiencies (hence productivity investments and upgrades) tell us that we should be doing a lot more. Resistance from fossil fuel states to such obvious improvements are a massive part of the problem. Climate change disasters will only intensify if we fail to act sufficiently. We are making progress, just not at the rate we really must.

Writing for the January 12th The Conversation, Charles F. Kutscher, fellow and senior research associate for the Renewable & Sustainable Energy Institute at the University of Colorado Boulder, and Jeffrey Logan, associate director of energy policy and analysis for the Renewable & Sustainable Energy Institute at the University of Colorado Boulder present the relevant facts: “Early projections suggest the world just wrapped up a record year of renewable electricity growth in 2021, following a record 33,500 megawatts of solar and wind electricity installed in the U.S. in 2020, according to BloombergNEF data. Even faster growth is expected ahead, especially given the Biden administration’s plans to tap high-value offshore wind resources. But will it be fast enough?

“The Biden administration’s goal is to have a carbon emissions-free grid by 2035. One recent study found that the U.S. will need to nearly triple its 2020 growth rate for the grid to be 80% powered by clean energy by 2030. (As difficult as that may sound, China reportedly installed 120,000 megawatts of wind and solar in 2020 [alone])… The foundation of this transition is a dramatic change in the electric grid itself… Converting to a 21st-century grid that is increasingly based on variable resources requires a completely new way of thinking. New sources of flexibility – the ability to keep supply and demand in balance over all time scales – are essential to enable this transition…

“Many analysts believe the U.S. can cost-effectively and reliably operate a power grid with 80% to 90% clean electricity, but decarbonizing the last 10% to 20% will be notably more challenging. While short-duration storage, lasting four hours or less, is becoming ubiquitous, we will likely need to provide power during some periods when wind and solar resources are at low levels (what the Germans call dunkelflaute, or ‘dark doldrums’). An expanded national transmission network will help, but some amount of long-duration storage will likely be needed… Numerous options are being explored, including alternative battery technologies and green hydrogen…

“Since 2009, the prices of wind and solar power have decreased by an astonishing 72% and 90%, respectively, and they are now the cheapest electricity sources – although some challenges still exist… [Electrical] Storage is now largely being provided by lithium-ion batteries. Their costs have plummeted, and new storage technologies are being developed.

“Expanded transmission is especially valuable. When the Northeast is experiencing peak electric demand in the early evening, there is still sun in the West. And, with more transmission, the large wind resources in the center of the country can send electricity toward both coasts. Transmission studies have shown that stronger interconnections among the country’s three power grids are highly beneficial.” 

What the facts reveal is simple: if the above targeted energy efficiency is embraced, perhaps of necessity even accelerated, given our willing prioritization and technological abilities, we can and must reach those goals on time. The good news is the resulting enhanced efficiency and productivity increases should produce a hard dollar return well above the investment required.

I’m Peter Dekom, and our ability to meet those definite needs on a cost-efficient basis suggests that a serious national purpose must overcome incumbent resisters to these most necessary goals.