When you realize the importance of a once-a-decade, constitutionally mandated US Census, inaccuracy wounds those who are undercounted and erodes democracy itself. Federal allocations to state and local governments are often a direct function of Census numbers. Undercount a demographic segment in need, and the supporting funding drops accordingly, putting a disproportionate burden on state and local governmental resources. Undercounting can also deprive a state of House votes and can shift the control of a voting district away from those whose presence was not included, generally less affluent individuals in harder to reach communities.
As part of its intentional manipulation against a fully accurate Census, the Trump administration (in power in 2020 when the Census was taken) tried to get an intimidating question about citizenship on the survey form (ultimately, judicially rejected as a transparent attempt to dissuade minorities from cooperating to ensure a valid count) and undercut the budget allocation for the very outreach program the Census officials desired to count those difficult minority communities. The pandemic, in full swing as Census workers plied their community outreach, added an additional burden – generating an offsetting inaccuracy – as people were wary of answering survey-takers knocking at their doors.
A Census is never perfect, but as modern techniques are developed to include more individuals in that Census count, you might believe those numbers to be increasingly accurate. But when you have an administration with open antipathy to minorities of color, the reverse is what actually happened. Writing for the March 11th Associated Press, Mike Schneider reports on the Census Bureau’s own internal assessment of their 2020 effort: “The Census missed more of the Hispanic or Latino population than in 2010, and an even larger share of Alaska Natives and Native Americans on reservations…
“Black, Hispanic and Native American residents were overlooked at higher rates than a decade ago, the U.S. Census Bureau said Thursday [3/10]… much higher for some minority groups, the bureau said in a report on how well the once-a-decade count tallied every U.S. resident and whether certain populations were undercounted or overrepresented. Overcounts can occur, for example, when those who own vacation homes are counted there as well as at their home addresses.
“The Black population in the 2020 census had an estimated net undercount of 3.3%, and the gap was almost 5% for Hispanics and 5.6% for Alaska Natives and Native Americans living on reservations… The non-Hispanic white population’s net overcount was 1.6%, and Asians had a net overcount of 2.6%... In the 2010 census, by comparison, the Black population had a net undercount of more than 2%, and it was 1.5% for the Hispanic population. There was a nearly 4.9% undercount for Alaskan Natives and Native Americans living on reservations, and an undercount of 0.08% for Asians. The non-Hispanic white population had a net overcount of 0.8%.
“The 2020 census reportedly missed 0.24% of the entire U.S. population, a rate that wasn’t statistically significant despite being much larger than the 0.01% missed in the 2010 census… The census figures help determine the distribution of $1.5 trillion in federal spending each year as well as how many congressional seats each state gets. Undercounts in various populations can shortchange those groups’ funding and political representation over the next decade.”
As we have been increasingly experiencing in recent elections, state, local and nation elections are often decided by less than a single percentage point, many other by low-end single digits. A redistricting frenzy has exploded across the land, based on those Census numbers, with politically biased gerrymandering, seldom challenged by the US Supreme Court, reaching new higher levels.
“Forty states — most recently Wisconsin — have now finished redrawing their congressional maps (not counting the six states with only one congressional district). Only Florida, Louisiana, Missouri and New Hampshire have yet to approve a new map, and we could be waiting a while: In all four states, stakeholders in the redistricting process are at odds about what kind of map to draw….
“However, there are still a few unknowns that could change these topline takeaways. Most notably, the ultimate map in Florida — where 28 congressional seats are at stake — could be worth multiple extra seats for one party or the other. Courts may also still throw out some of the maps that are currently in place, such as Ohio’s. The Buckeye State’s latest map is not much fairer than the one that was previously struck down.” Projects.fivethirtyeight.com, March 3rd. Democrats and Republicans are pushing hard to reconfigure districts to favor their candidates. There are dozens of legal challenges to biased efforts, many likely to be determined at a state level.
Article I, Section 4, Clause 1 of the US Constitution states: “The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.” The 15th Amendment gave emancipated slaves the right to vote, adding women via the 19th Amendment. Recent Congressional efforts to pass national voting laws to be more inclusive have failed in the filibuster-prone Senate, and the US Supreme Court, absent dramatic evidence of a discriminatory intent, has been loath to overrule state redistricting.
At the heart of all of these determinations and challenges is the US Census, admittedly a survey that overcounts traditional white voters and undercounts minorities of color. It’s a system that is inherently flawed and perhaps getting worse.
I’m Peter Dekom, and in significant part, American democracy rises and falls with the accuracy of our Census… and right now, it’s falling.
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