The Fire the Next Time

“Too often, our response is tardy, costly, and after the fact, with many countries 

suffering from a chronic lack of investment in planning and prevention.” 

UN Report on the increasing number and intensity of climate change caused wildfires

Among other issues, the recent, pre-Ukraine invasion, Sino-Russian accord addressed the continued supply of fossil fuels from Russia to China, obviously acknowledging a Russian expectation that exports to Europe would be curtailed. China attempted to cast a supportive wink to Russia as the latter saber-rattled against Western provocation and Ukrainian threats to Russian-backed separatists. But once Russia invaded to almost universal condemnation, China began sending messages that supporting overwhelming Russian aggression might not have been part of their bargain. Nevertheless, since both China and Russia are massive contributors to greenhouse gasses, their participation in addressing global climate change is essential. Catch-22. Tackling climate change requires global cooperation. Russia has to be part of the equation.

This completely unnecessary and unjustified war comes on the heels of United Nations sponsored research on what planet earth can expect in the near future with wildfires. The report was horrific. The report, Spreading like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires, was released on February 23rd on the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) website, which summarized “that climate change and land-use change are making wildfires worse and anticipates a global increase of extreme fires even in areas previously unaffected. Uncontrollable and extreme wildfires can be devastating to people, biodiversity and ecosystems. They also exacerbate climate change, contributing significant greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere.

“UNEP is issuing an urgent call to governments to rethink their approach to extreme wildfires. By calling for a new ‘Fire Ready Formula’ and recognizing the important role of ecosystem restoration, we can minimize the risk of extreme wildfires by being better prepared and building back better in their aftermath.” Basically, most of the world’s governments are woefully unprepared for what appears to be inevitable. Matthew Brown, writing for the February 23rd Los Angeles Times, accentuates some of the harshest risks outlined by the report:

“The Western U.S., northern Siberia, central India and eastern Australia already are seeing more blazes, and the likelihood of catastrophic wildfires globally could increase by a third by 2050 and more than 50% by the turn of the century, according to the report from the United Nations Environment Program… Areas once considered safe from major fires won’t be immune, including the Arctic, which the report said was ‘very likely to experience a significant increase in burning.’… Tropical forests in Indonesia and the southern Amazon of South America also are likely to see increased wildfires, the report concluded.” For those of us in the fire-prone Western states like California, the message is frighteningly clear, as Haley Smith, writing for the February 24th Los Angeles Times tells us:

“Even the Arctic, previously all but immune to the threat, faces growing wildfire risk because of climate change and other factors, according to the report, which was published Wednesday ahead of the upcoming U.N. Environment Assembly in Nairobi, Kenya… The findings likely sound all too familiar to California residents, who for years have been living with the reality of hotter, more frequent and more intense wildfires. The five largest blazes recorded in the state have all occurred since 2018, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

“Yet the new report shines a light on the hard lessons California is learning — including what it’s getting right and what more needs to be done. In the fire-prone American West and around the world, too much focus remains on response instead of preparation. What’s more, wildfires pose urgent questions about land use and public health that extend far beyond the boundaries of their flames.

“‘We hear that people in D.C. think of fire as a Western issue, or a Californian issue, but it really isn’t — it’s a global issue,’ said Max Moritz, a wildfire specialist with the University of California Cooperative Extension in Santa Barbara who contributed to the report. ‘It affects all of us.’… [The report notes] that most governments typically dedicate more than half of their wildfire spending to response and less than 1% to planning.

“In some ways, then, California is already ahead of the curve. Gov. Gavin Newsom last year unveiled a $15-billion climate change package, which included $1.5 billion for wildfire response and forest resilience. This year’s proposed budget adds $1.2 billion, much of it for forest thinning, prescribed burns and other projects intended to reduce fire risks.

“But while the numbers reflect a shift toward preparedness, more can be done. The state last year also spent more than $1.1 billion in fire suppression emergency costs, according to Cal Fire… California’s response is [however] lacking in clarity, according to a separate report from the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office, which found that additional wildfire funds are merited ‘given the worsening pattern of large and severe wildfires in recent years’ but that an ‘absence of a strategic wildfire plan makes it difficult to assess’ whether the proposed plans are the best approach.

“Wildfire adaption doesn’t end with budgets and finances, however. Stronger regional and international cooperation, as well as the incorporation of shared best practices, can help elevate the global response, the U.N. report said… One such tool is prescribed burning, a practice that involves the intentional use of fire to clear away the dried vegetation that accumulates over time. The practice is not new in California: For centuries, many of the state’s Indigenous communities considered prescribed burns essential for forest health and employed it to great success.” 

Bottom line: even the best-intentioned efforts to combat this scourge suggest that we still really don’t know what we are doing. We better learn… fast. I wince after massive fires wipe out entire communities… and watch local residents begin rebuilding in the same fire-prone area. We are stubborn, but there comes a point where stubborn is simply not sustainable.

I’m Peter Dekom, and global cooperation, research, data and open continuing dialog are essential if we are ever going to get terrifying wildfire damage under control.