Fiery Speeches, Polls and Restraint

Russia's permanent representative to the 

United Nations Security Council responding 

to Zelensky’s speech; footage from Bucha

were “crude fakes.”

A major cyber attack on the United States is both possible and increasingly likely. With inaccurate information from his own generals, Putin is now imitating Trump’s proclivity to double down after an obvious mistake and claim victory when the opposite is true. But unlike Donald Trump, Putin does not have an opposing party or close and necessary powerful engaged military allies to shut him down. He still has options. A cyberattack directly against the United States puts both Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in a serious quandary. Putin will deny that Russia fomented such an attack – he usually uses private dark operatives to create plausible deniability – and Biden is loath to follow up on his belief that this is a sufficient justification for all out war. 

Putin is at his weakest point since his reign began two decades ago. Whether he triumphs against Ukraine by unleashing overwhelming force and weapons of international opprobrium or simply creates a small buffer state in eastern Ukraine, it’s clear that his military’s most basic functionality is total bust. Corruption – it is estimated that at least 20%, if not up to 40%, of Russia’s military budget has been siphoned off to oligarchs, high ranking officers and Putin himself – combined with undertrained, and clearly unmotivated conscripts as well as undermaintained equipment have increased the relative value of Russian tactical, chemical and biological weapons.

But Putin still has two valuable cards in his deck from Western needs and beliefs that provide him some comfort. First, and most obviously, it is the continued dependence of European nations, mostly NATO allies and particularly Germany, on Russian oil and more importantly, natural gas. But second, and perhaps more importantly, it is Biden’s internal red lines that he has self-imposed “to prevent World War III.” Policies like holding back on providing Ukraine with longer range missiles and drones, not providing better missile defense systems for fear they may fall into Russian hands, and not allowing a small fleet of Russian-built MIG 29s to be picked up and used by the Ukraine military. 

Despite Zelensky’s articulate pleas, which have captured the hearts of most of those who have heard them, and notwithstanding the unexpected success of Ukrainian ground forces against an unprepared Russian attack, we have failed to help Ukraine “close the skies.” The Ukrainian President has railed against the impotence of the United Nations Security Council with a Russian veto, one where Russia maintains that the visual evidence of war crimes and genocide are “crude fakes.” Pressed with severe inflationary pressures, exactly how squarely are Americans behind Joe Biden’s effort to support Ukraine? Adam Taylor with Sammy Westfall, in the Washington Post’s Today’s World View, April 7th, present the facts… and the numbers:

“For years, Russian President Vladimir Putin looked to divide Americans. There was election interference, disinformation projects and, of course, that ever-present dodgy Russian money sloshing around Washington and other Western capitals. All served to weaken U.S. resolve. But in the space of just a few months, Putin has done something far harder than dividing Americans: He’s united them… Well, up to a point.

“A new poll of U.S. adults conducted by Pew Research Center found the number of Americans who said Russia was an enemy had surged from 41 percent in January to 70 percent in late March, when the poll was conducted. Twenty-four percent described Russia as a competitor of the United States, while just 3 percent said it was a partner. “Crucially, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to revulsion along both sides of the political spectrum in the United States. Democrats and Republicans largely agree on the subject, with 72 percent of Democrats and 69 percent of Republicans describing Russia as an enemy. And Pew notes that the change in attitudes is asymmetrical. “‘While negative sentiment toward Russia has increased substantially among both Democrats and Republicans since 2020, Republicans’ views have changed more drastically,’ Pew notes, pointing to separate results that show negative views among Democrats increased by 23 percent in two years — and 35 percent for Republicans. “But this being America, dysfunction and division are never far from the surface. For the Biden administration, this relative unity against Russia is not a relief. Most signs suggest that any support for action against Ukraine will not help his underwater approval ratings. Indeed, polls suggest that voters support President Biden’s actions against Ukraine — they just want far more of it. “A survey conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and released late last month found that while the United States had imposed jaw-dropping sanctions and supplied more military aid to Ukraine than ever, 56 percent of the country thought Biden had not been tough enough on Russia. Even Democrats weren’t sure, with 43 percent favoring a tougher approach.” Not many Americans understand the existential battle for democracy should Putin prevail. Putin’s failures are democracy’s life blood successes. Yet we have rising antidemocratic forces here in the United States pressing to squelch minority rights, crush civil rights cases that have stood for half a century, impose their “cultural” views on all Americans and reinforce the center of power back to white traditional Christians. They rail against science, individual rights to differ from the mainstream and full voting rights. If Trump were back in office, given autocratic reign, exactly how far from the Russian model would we really be? Is there American hypocrisy rising with such very necessary support for Ukraine, a struggle for true democracy?             I’m Peter Dekom, and democracy requires crystal clear mirrors for continuous self-inspection, but it appears that too many Americans hate mirrors.